Racing at Cheltenham is rarely anything other than top class, dear reader, and the weekend just passed was like a ‘mini Festival’ with so many trainers keen to get a run into so many horses when they’d normally try to avoid meeting each other prior to the March meeting.
So what did the action tell us, aside from the fact – pointed out to me numerous times – that Faasel is not quite as reliable a stick as I’d envisaged. Trying to explain to people who simply want winners the concepts of value and the long term benefits of using trends can sometimes be pointless. So, to those who just want winners, sorry but you’ll not find any guarantees of that here on any given day.
But for the vast majority of you who understand that if you generally take 14/1 aboutÂ horses that start at 11/1 (as Faasel did), you’ll come out in front.
Onwards. What did we learn at the Cheltenham December meeting? We learnt the following:
1. Spirit River is a hurdler. He hates fences, and has now fallen on both attempts in novice chase company. Anyone who takes the 20/1 with Betfred (or even the 33/1 best price with William Hill) wants their head examining. As it stands, he must be half those odds to even line up in this race, given his high class form over the smaller obstacles. And running in a 2m5f race is a curious preparation for a two mile championship contest, in any event.
2. Reve De Sivola is not one to rely on for a Cheltenham win. Despite taking the novice chase that Spirit River fell in, this was his first victory in seven attempts at the Cheltenham HQ of jump racing. The horse to take from the race was probably Wishfull Thinking, who finished a length and a bit behind RdS,Â having been badly hampered by fallers on the way round.
Wishfull Thinking would have appreciated a bit more pace as he travels very well, and he might make up into an interesting contender for a race like the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual which, these days, is the last race of the Festival I believe.
3. Midnight Chase not only has a touch of class, he also has some guts to back it up with. I had expected the weight and the slightly stiffer competition in the Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase to find Neil Mulholland’s charge out on Friday. But he proved me wrong in fine style. Despite lugging more lead than all bar the increasingly apathetic Neptune Collonges (should be retired probably, or sent hunting at least), he had a great time of it out in front, gradually raising the tempo under a spot on Dougie Costello ride, to overhaul the only horse who dared to challenge his front-running rate, Presenting Forever.
The second horse was in receipt of seventeen pounds from the winner, and they were strung out like Christmas fairy lights behind. Whether this was a Gold Cup-challenging performance is a moot point, as the horse should be considered on his (and his connections’) merits to date in my opinion. I will say this though: I feel quite strongly that this is a changeover year in the Gold Cup hierarchy, and as an eight year old there’s likely more improvement in Midnight Chase than any of Imperial Commander, Kauto Star or Denman. There will need to be!
4. Al Ferof may take a while to get over his tumble. Second behind Cue Card in the Cheltenham Bumper in March, Al Ferof made his eagerly awaited hurdling bow in the last race on Friday. He received robust support in the betting exchanges, and cantered to the front before two out. He then proceeded to make a total horlicks of the obstacle, and took a nasty fall. Al Ferof obviously has lots of class, and a very high cruising speed.
Those two elements alone will win bumpers and other flat races, but you have to be able to jump if you want to get to the top of the National Hunt tree. I’d be wary of taking short odds about this chap until I’ve seen him put in a full round of jumping. Nevertheless, he remains a bright prospect with that caveat firmly in mind.
5. Woolcombe Folly may not be done winning yet. I took an interest in this one last year, when I hoped he’d run well in the Arkle. In fact, he ran a stinker at 25/1. Prior to that, he’d won his last five chases and hurdles races, and since then he’s racked up another three victories, including two at Cheltenham – this being the second of those. He’ll likely have an entry for the Champion Chase now. Having been available at 110 on Betfair last week for that race, I’m not too keen on taking the 10/1 now.
That said, if you can forgive his bad Festival run in March, there’s a lot to like about this fella. While Master Minded, Big Zeb and co. may be a different kettle of kippers entirely, it’s far from folly to suggest that Woolcombe will win again between now and the Festival.
6. Sam Winner is by far the best juvenile novice seen so far. So far, being the operative phrase. Before you pile into the 9/2 best price, bear in mind that only one of the last seven winners of the Triumph Hurdle had run over hurdles in UK prior to December. Katchit was the exception, and five of the last seven winners were not seen on the track before this Wednesday’s scheduled Newbury meeting.
Of the horses in there, it’s Sam Winner’s stable mate, Empire Levant, that looks the most interesting. He’s unraced here, having won three and been nosed into second in a fourth contest in France, and has Sir Alex Ferguson as one of his owners… Of the other pre-entries, Rare Symphony was highly rated on the Flat and may be expected to perform well in the Newbury race and subsequently truncate in the betting for the Triumph. Although that’s speculative in the extreme, it’s probably a better option than 9/2 about the best novice seen so far…
7. Time For Rupert is the best staying novice seen out so far. Whilst juvenile hurdlers are generally brought late to the party prior to winning the Triumph, the same is not true of RSA Chase winners. Indeed, you have to go back to 1998 to find the last RSA Chase winner to debut over fences later than the end of November. That was Florida Pearl. In that context, Time For Rupert must have a favourite’s chance as, with the exception of the long absent Mikael d’Haguenet, there’s very few unexposed horses in the race.
Rupert’s Cheltenham record is impeccable with three wins and two seconds from five starts. That the two second’s were behind Tidal Bay and Big Buck’s over hurdles, says a heck of a lot about the class of this chap and, despite the RSA being a race where outsiders have a good record, he’s a worthy favourite and would be much shorter if trained by Messrs. Henderson or Nicholls.
8. Zaynar is a recalcitrant monkey. If you’re still keeping the faith with former Triumph Hurdle winner Zaynar, you’re either very patient or very stupid. Ahem. Either way, you’re probably skint, as the horse is an absolute recalcitrant monkey. He’s been beaten in his last five runs, four of them as favourite, including SP’s of 13/8,11/8, and… wait for it… 1/14 (!!!!!) On that 1/14 day, there was a ‘shrewdie’ who got the 1/12, trying to win a hundred quid for an investment of twelve hundred. Pity for him, especially if he’s been on a money-back mission ever since.
Quite simply, do not touch this horse. If he wins, fair play. But there’s bound to be far more reliable propositions – at better prices – in his races.
9. Master Minded is a machine. OK, so he was disappointing at the Festival in March, when only fourth to Big Zeb. But the balance of Master Minded’s form is exceptional, including a facile win against a strong field in the re-routed Tingle Creek on Saturday. It was his first win at Cheltenham since the Queen Mother Champion Chase of 2009 (two losses since), and the way he gobbled up the ground between the pace setters and himself turning in was mightily impressive.
He’s no price for the Champion – 2/1 best and as short as 6/4 in places – and I just wonder if there’s any chance of him running in the Gold Cup. As preposterous as that may sound (and may also turn out to be!), he’s 300+/1 on betfair for the longer race, and that’s a route that the same connections’ Kauto Star has taken in the past (Kauto fell when 2/1 favourite for the Champion Chase in 2006, before winning the 2007 Gold Cup). With both Denman and Kauto Star celebrating their eleventh birthday on January 1st, and Master Minded due to be eight on the same day, he’s clearly the future. Whether he stays that far is obviously the subject of conjecture, but stranger things have happened. I’ve had a throwaway tenner at odds of 323.26!
Talking of the Gold Cup, perhaps the best performance with regards to that was the staying-on third from Somersby. Also a staying-on second behind Sizing Europe in the Arkle last season, this boy seems to be crying out for further. He’s quoted in the Champion Chase (two miles), the Ryanair (2m5f), and the Gold Cup (3m2f), and ante-post punters have to second guess connections as to which race he’ll choose. For that reason alone, I couldn’t advise a bet at this stage. But the way he finished here, you’d hope they’d step him up to at least the Ryanair trip.
10. Menorah is a credible Champion Hurdle contender. The Grade 2 International Hurdle was a fascinating contest, in that it brought together three horses of immense potential in Menorah, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti. The latter two were unbeaten novices and putting formidable home reputations on the line. Both were usurped in unambiguous fashion by Philip Hobbs’ Menorah, and he is rightly being touted as a strong Champion Hurdle contender.
Whilst I wouldn’t back him at 7/2, or even the best priced 9/2, I don’t need to as I already backed him at 27.34 way back when I advised him on here in August. Here’s that post again. And here’s my own position now:
|12-Aug||Summit Meeting||Ch Hdle||353.84||Â£5.00||Â£1,769.20||betfair||W|
|12-Aug||Oscar Whisky||Ch Hdle||200||Â£6.55||Â£1,310.00||betfair||W|
|12-Nov||Cue Card||Ch Hdle||21||Â£73.00||Â£1,533.00||SJ||W|
|23-Nov||Peddlers Cross||Ch Hdle||15||Â£100.00||Â£1,500.00||totesport||W|
So, whilst I’m very pleased with the ante-post position I have on the race (and I hope some of you followed me in), I do think much / all of the value has now gone and, if anything, Menorah and Peddlers Cross may be bigger prices on the day than the 4/1 and 6/1 respectively they are now.
Solwhit remains interesting. He’s 16/1 in a number of places and 10/1 in a number of places. That disparity is marked in a race such as the Champion Hurdle and indicates a real discord in terms of bookies’ perceptions of the merits of his ability. He certainly has a level of form that is at least as good as what Menorah and Peddlers have achieved to date, and in that regard, he has a modicum of value in the 16/1 still available.
Ultimately, the best value in this race may now be with the reigning Champion, Binocular, who is surely too big at 5/1 with bet365. Sure, he got beaten in the Fighting Fifth, but he was beaten in that race last year. He was eased by McCoy once his challenge petered out that day, and he’s sure to be MUCH more combative in March. The big question is will he win his next race and truncate in the market? Or will he go even longer? Either way, no horse this season has run to the level he did when winning last year’s Champion Hurdle, so 5/1 must be at least fair odds on the repeat.
There are only three months to go now, and the storylines are blending in fascinating fashion for the next few chapters before the revelations of mid-March. It just never ceases to intrigue and excite! 🙂
p.s. Just a quick word on dear old Khajaaly, the Geegeez Racing Club horse, who won his second race in a row on Friday. He had to work a little harder than when dotting up at 25/1, and the odds were ‘only’ 3/1 this time (backed by many from 4/1), but he still did it cosily, and there may… may… be more in the locker. It’s more than we dare hope for, but hope is most definitely what we have.