In a packed programme tonight, as the pair of Ronnies used to say, we’ve got a trainer from Devon who is well worth keeping on the right side; two horses in whom I have a personal interest running today; and, a quick update on the questions I asked you earlier in the week.
So to business. I’ve been ‘mucking around’ with some settings in the Stat Attack feature in HorseRaceBase.com (the brilliant site I told you about a few weeks back), and each day it gives me a report for my criteria.
Essentially I’m always on the lookout for hot trainers (remember that TrainerTrackStats was my invention way back when, before Gavin took it on so excellently, and I’m still a trainer stats fiend!). And the chap I want to talk to you about today is one of those wonderful creatures who have recorded a level stakes profit in recent years.
In layman’s terms, if you’d backed all of his horses since the start of 2007, you’d be in front. Nice work. So, drumroll please, and step forward, Mr. Victor Dartnall.
He’s in great form at the moment which is what highlighted him to me today. But let’s break down his overall performance to draw on a few sub-trends in his profile.
Firstly, January and February have always been strong months for our Vic. In fact, during the period 2007 to now, he’s shown a 150% return at SP. To Betfair odds, that translates to an eye-watering 231.9%.
Now before you go mortgaging your house/spouse/mouse to lump on, note that Vic hasn’t made a profit in every year, though in the lean years, there was only a slight loss.
What about race types? Does Mr D focus on any specific types of race or is he a dab hand at one distance range over all others?
‘Yes’ is the unsurprising and short answer. In races of 2m5f or less (including flat races), Victor Dartnall has the following figures to his name since the start of 2007:
73 wins from 359 bets for a level stakes profit of 65.86 points at bookies’ starting price. Betfair punters would have been swimming in gravy to the tune of a whopping 203.73 points profit. Yikes!
In class 4 races or lower (i.e. Class 4, 5, 6, or 7) at the distances above, Dartnall’s stats are even hotter:
61 wins from 282 bets (21.6% strike rate) for a profit of 83.97 points. That’s Â£839.70 for tenner flat bets. At Betfair odds, we woulda coulda shoulda bagged 214.08 points, or Â£2,140.80 for those self same tenners. Yikes again.
So there you have it. It’s a Victor-y D for Mr Dartnall, notably when he runs his nags in races at 2m5f or less and in Class 4 – 7. He’s got one such beastie today, in the bumper at 4.50 Wincanton. Flyit Flora is the name of the dame, and she’s a 20/1 shot, so don’t expect too much too soon. But note that Victor is 10 wins from 52 starters in bumpers, but 0 from 3 at Wincanton in bumpers.
Obviously, that’s a miniscule sample size from which to draw meaningful conclusions, but his overall record at the track suggests we should probably have an interest only, and follow Victor more rigidly from tomorrow…
Today’s racing holds interest for me personally, and also for some fellow Geegeez Racing Club members who were given first refusal on shares in another Feilden stable inmate, Sail Home. I also have a bit of another horse running tonight at Wolverhampton.
Sail Home runs in the 3.00 Southwell this afternoon, and she’s highly likely to go off favourite. In what looks a three horse race, despite there being six contestants, ‘Sally’ will probably have most to fear from Eseej and Trachonitis (a rugged region to the east of Jordan,Â mentioned in the bible, apparently).
Sail Home won last time over course and distance, and has improved since then. She’ll need to have because on that occasion she beat a reasonable bumper horse running over far too short a trip, and three trees.
Eseej is more exposed (considerably) but consistent here at Southwell where he’s won three times over the distance, and off higher handicap marks than he races from today. His wins have all come in smallish fields as well.
Trachonitis is a bit harder to fancy, which probably explains why he’s twice the price of the other two, but a line through Dontpaytheferryman gives him a good chance with Eseej.
The other trio look regressive (Thundering Home and Amazing Blue Sky) or just plain not good enough (Just Zak).
I’ll be cheering from home today, but I know most of the other syndicate members are there this afternoon, so good luck chaps!
Later this evening, I’ll be cheering the seasonal (and my ownership) debut of my first / only horse interest away from the Feilden yard, when Smarties Party steps out at Dunstall Park. It’s a two miler at 7.00, and she’s been going nicely at home. Although she might need the run tonight, there’s little in the field of nine aside from the hattrick-seeking Delorain and the seconditis machine, Rosewood Lad.
As such, more in hope than any great expectations, I’ll be betting her for a place and looking for some promise prior to her National Hunt bow in a few weeks time.
And finally, to both top and tail with Ronnies references, thank you very much to the 1,346 of you who responded to my quick survey. You never cease to amaze me with your generosity when it comes to your time, and your answers quite simply make the difference between doing something and not doing it.
When I was pondering a forum here on Geegeez, you told me emphatically no. I was relieved to hear that, and heeded your advice.
This time I was asking about live odds comparison, and you have suggested that many of you would find the convenience of that facility here on Geegeez a definite benefit. So, I’ll be making sure that happens in the not too distant future, ideally in time for Cheltenham as it will be an extremely useful resource when bookies are falling over each other to do us favours… (It only happens once a year, so we need to be ready to make the best of it!).
And finally, finally, all these references to Messrs. Corbett and Barker have made me nostalgic, so – it being Thursday and all – how about a return of another old friend, in the guise of Thursday Fun? Here’s the Ron’s doing what they do best, making the news up with classic contrivance!