TV Trends – Sat 3rd Sept

Sprint Cup - 8/10 were aged 5 or younger

Did you know that 8 of the last 10 Betfred Sprint Cup winners were drawn 7 or HIGHER? Plenty more nuggets like this as Andy Newton looks at all of Saturday’s C4 races from a trends angle…….

Haydock (C4 & RUK)

2.00 – BETFRED “GOALS GALORE” SUPERIOR MILE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,013 CH4 1m

7 previous runnings
2 winning favourites (2003 & 2006)
The last 3 renewals were won by a 4 year-old
6 of the last 7 were aged 4 or OLDER
6 of the 7 winners ran at either Ascot (3) or York (3) last time
3 of the last 7 won their previous race
Saeed Bin Suroor won this in 2004 – RAINFALL (Dettori) and SAHARA KINGDOM
John Gosden is 7 from 35 (20%) with his 3 year-olds at Haydock – QUESTIONING
Eve Johnson Houghton is 3 from 14 (21%) with her older horses here – FONTLEY
Saeed Bin Suroor is just 1 from 22 (5%) when running 4+year-olds at the course -  RAINFALL (Dettori) and SAHARA KINGDOM
Jamie Spencer is 11 from 52 (21%) when riding older horses here – FIRST CITY
Eddie Ahern is 0 from 34 when getting the leg-up on 4+ year-olds at Haydock – SAHARA KINGDOM

BET HERE

 

2.30 – BETFRED BUNDLES OLD BOROUGH CUP (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £32,345 CH4 1m6f

5 of the last 9 went to the favourite (1 joint)
ALL 9 recent winners were aged 5 or YOUNGER
8 of the last 9 carried 9-3 or LESS
7 of the 9 winners returned 15/2 or SHORTER in the betting
ALL 9 finished 4th or better in their last race (4 won)
4 of the last 9 winners ran at York in their previous race
John Gosden won this 12 months ago – NEHAAM & ZUIDER ZEE
Sir Michael Stoute won this race in 2007 – BLISSFUL MOMENT
Mark Johnston took the prize in 2003, 2006 and 2009 – EXEMPLARY, NAVE & SHERNANDO (De Sousa)
However, Mark Johnston is only 3 from 41 (7%) with his older horses here – EXEMPLARY, NAVE & SHERNANDO (De Sousa)
Sir Michael Stoute is 6 from 21 (29%) with his 4+year-olds at the track – BLISSFUL MOMENT
John Gosden has a 27% (3 from 11) record with his older horses here – NEHAAM & ZUIDER ZEE
Alan Swinbank is 10 from 49 (20%) with his 4+year-olds at the course – LINE OF DUTY
Jim Goldie is only 1 from 31 with his older horses at Haydock – MERCHANT OF DUBAI
Jamie Spencer is 11 from 52 (21%) when riding older horses here – ACTIVATE
Graham Gibbons is only 3 from 67 when riding older horses at the track – DEAUVILLE FLYER

BET HERE

3.00 – BETFRED “THE BONUS KING” BE FRIENDLY HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £12,938 CH4 5f

2 of the last 9 went to the favourite
5 of the last 9 returned at double-figure odds
8 of the last 9 winners carried 9-2 or LESS
6 finished UNPLACED last time out
7 of the last 9 came from stall 7 or LESS
No real age trends with 3,4,5,6 & 7 year-olds all winning in the last 9 renewals
Tim Easterby won the race in 2001 & 2010 – HAZELRIGG & MEDICI TIME
CHEVETON won the race in 2009 and runs again
Mick Channon is only 4 from 46 with his 3 year-olds here – THE THRILL IS GONE
Roger Charlton has a 31% record (4 from 13) with his 4+year-olds at the track – ZERO MONEY
Richard Price is 7 from 32 (22% & +£39) when running 4+year-olds here – CHEVETON
Jamie Spencer is 11 from 52 (21%) when riding older horses here – FALASTEEN
Graham Gibbons is only 3 from 67 when riding older horses at the track – MEDICI TIME

BET HERE

3.35 – BETFRED SPRINT CUP (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £133,722 CH4 6f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
6 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
Only 1 winner older than 6 years-old (Markab 2010)
7 of the last 10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8 of the 10 winners were aged between 3 and 5 years-old
8 of the last 10 were drawn 7 or HIGHER
Roger Charlton won the race in 2004 – GENKI & BATED BREATH
Jockey Pat Cosgrave won the prize 12 months ago – SOCIETY ROCK
Roger Varian already has a huge 42% (5 from 12) record with his 3 year-olds here – ELZAAM
Sir Michael Stoute has a 29% strike-rate (6 from 21) with his older horses here – KINGSGATE NATIVE
Roger Charlton is 4 from 13 (31%) when running 4+ year-olds at the track – GENKI & BATED BREATH
Mick Easterby is just 2 from 42 with his older horses at the course – HOOF IT
Jamie Spencer is 11 from 52 (21%) when riding older horses here – MASAMAH

*Note* – The 2008 race was run at Doncaster

BET HERE

Ascot (C4 & RUK)

3.15 – FLY LONDON SOUTHEND AIRPORT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £51,752 CH4 7f

No previous runnings
Richard Hannon is only 5 from 105 (5%0 when running 3 year-olds at Ascot – KING OF JAZZ
Mick Channon is only 3 from 72 with his older horses at the track – ATLANTIC SPORT
Ed Dunlop is just 1 from 34 with his 4+year-olds at the course – SWIFT GIFT
Despite only being 2 from 46 when riding older horses at the track, jockey Tom Queally does have a +£36 level stakes profit – GRAMERCY
Adam Kirby is 0 from 39 when getting the leg-up on 4+year-olds at Ascot – PALACE MOON

BET HERE

3.45 – LADBROKES MOBILE HANDICAP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo) Winner £97,035 CH4 1m4f

No previous runnings
Michael Bell has a huge +£41 level stakes profit with his 3 year-olds here (7 from 41) – COMMUNICATOR
Richard Fahey is only 1 from 18 with his 3 year-olds at Ascot – BRIDLE BELLE
John Gosden is just 5 from 64 (8%) when running 3 year-olds at the Berkshire track – THIMAAR, RAIN MAC & SELO
Michael Hills is only 2 from 38 when riding 3 year-olds here – ITHOUGHTITWASOVER
Ted Durcan is just 1 from 29 (3%) on 3 year-olds at the course – THIMAAR
Darryll Holland is 0 from 24 when riding 3 year-olds at the track – BARBICAN

BET HERE

Kempton (C4 & RUK)

2.15 – BETFRED SEPTEMBER STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £28,355 CH4 1m4f

5 previous runnings
1 winning favourite
4 of the last 5 finished in the frame last time out
2 of the last 5 winners ran at Windsor last time out
3 of the 5 were won by a 4 year-old
Godolphin won the race in 2009 – SIMON DE MONTFORT
Dane O’Neill has a huge -£187 (31 from 378) level stakes loss when riding older horses here – CLASSIC PUNCH
Luke Morris is the only jockey on show to have a positive level stakes profit when riding older horses here – MYPLACELATER
Liam Jones is only 9 from 133 when riding 4+year-olds at the track – HARRIS TWEED

BET HERE

 

2.45 – TOTESCOOP6 LONDON MILE HANDICAP (SERIES FINAL) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £27,266 CH4 1m

5 previous runnings
ALL 5 were won by a 4 year-old
4 of the 5 carried 8-13 or MORE
4 of the 5 returned a double-figure price (20/1, 33/1, 25/1 & 33/1)
The last two winners finished unplaced at Newmarket in their previous race
CHAPTER AND VERSE won the prize last year
Mike Murphy won the race in 2010 – CHAPTER AND VERSE and BENANDONNER
Alan Bailey is 5 from 24 (21%) with his 3 year-olds at Kempton – INDIAN JACK
Jo Crowley is only 3 from 59 with her older horses at the track – SHAMIR
Out-of-form Robert Cowell does, however, boast a +£43 level stakes profit with his 4+year-olds here – FANTASY GLADIATOR
James Fanshawe is 11 from 4 (25%) when running his older horses at the track – PRIMAEVAL

BET HERE