TV Trends – 17th Sept

Dandy Eyes a 7th Gold Cup

Did you know there’s only been ONE winning favourite in Saturday’s William Hill Ayr Gold Cup since 1986? Plenty more trends nuggets like this as Andy Newton takes a look at ALL the live C4 races this weekend.

Ayr (C4)

2.15 –WILLIAM HILL AYR SILVER CUP (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £21,788 CH4 6f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
7 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
NO winner aged older than 5 years-old in the last 10 years
5 year-olds have the best recent record – winning 40% of the last 10
7 of the last 10 carried 9-4 or LESS
7 of the last 10 winners finished 4th or better in their previous race
3 of the last 10 came from stalls 1 or 2
5 of the last 10 came from stall 15 or HIGHER
David Barron won this 12 months ago – BERTIEWHITTLE & ELUSIVE PRINCE
Richard Fahey won the race in 2007 and 2009 – BALDEMAR, ARTIC FEELING, JOHANNES, VALERY BORZOV (Hanagan), PRIME EXHIBIT, EL VIENTO & SIOUX RISING
Dandy Nicholls took the prize in 2001, 2003 and 2005 – NASRI, TAX FREE, CAPONE, JOSEPH HENRY,
Michael Dods won the race in 2002 – MASS RALLY & MARVELLOUS VALUE
Tim Easterby has a 19% record (+£23) with his older horses here -GRISSOM
Phillip Makin has a 16% record, but is also +£70 when riding 4+year-olds here – PARISIAN PYRAMID
David Allen has a 21% strike-rate on older horses at Ayr – GRISSOM

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2.45 – LAUNDRY COTTAGE STUD FIRTH OF CLYDE STAKES (GROUP 3) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £31,191 CH4 6f

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
The last 3 winners returned a double-figure price
50% of the last 10 returned 5/1 or SHORTER
4 of the last 10 won their previous race, including the last 3 renewals
Mick Channon won this 12 months ago – MISS LAHAR
Bryan Smart won this in 2007 and 2009 – EXCELETTE
Richard Fahey took this in 2004 – MISS WORK OF ART
Richard Fahey has a 24% record with his 2 year-olds here – MISS WORK OF ART
Bryan Smart is 8 from 36 (22%) with his juveniles at the track – EXCELETTE
David Barron is 3 from 15 with his juveniles at the course – KOHALA
Tim Easterby is only 1 from 19 with his youngsters here – ROGER SEZ
Paul Hanagan has a 27% strike-rate when riding 2 year-olds at Ayr – MISS WORK OF ART

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3.20 – WILLIAM HILL AYR GOLD CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £74,700 CH4 6f

All of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
NO winning favourite in the last 10 years – in fact only 1 jolly has won since 1986!
NO winning horse older than 6 years-old
All of the last 10 winners were trained in the UK
9 of the last 10 failed to win their previous race
80% of the last 10 winners carried 9-2 or less
70% of recent winners were drawn from stall 10 or HIGHER
4 of the last 10 were aged 4 years-old
40% of recent winners had their last race at Doncaster
3 of the last 10 raced at Goodwood last time out
Only 1 winning 3 year-old in the last 10 years
Dandy Nicholls has won this in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2010 – REGAL PARADE & TAJNEED
Marcus Tregoning has not had a single runner here in recent years – DARAJAAT
Mark Johnston is 0 from 21 with his 4+year-olds at the track – BELOW ZERO
Phillip Makin has a 16% record, but is also +£70 when riding 4+year-olds here – WAFFLE
David Allen has a 21% strike-rate on older horses at Ayr – GROUP THERAPY

Newbury (C4)

2.00 – DUBAI DUTY FREE ARC TRIAL (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £28,355 CH4 1m3f

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/2 or SHORTER in the betting
3 year-olds have the best recent record, winning 3 of the last 10
6 of the last 10 finished in the top 3 last time out
3 of the last 10 won their previous race
5 of the last 10 ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
However, no real age trend with 3,4,5,6,7 and 8 year-olds all winning in the last 10 years
Brian Meehan’s DANGEROUS MIDGE won the race 12 months ago
A good race for repeat winners with Compton Bolter and Blue Monday winning this race twice in recent years – DANGEROUS MIDGE
Roger Charlton and Steve Drowne won this in 2006 and 2008 – AL KAZEEM
Roger Charlton also runs SEA OF HEARTBREAK
Mick Channon’s HALICARNASSUS won the race in 2007
Mick Channon is only 3 from 54 (6%) with his 4 +year-olds here – HALICARNASSUS
Saeed Bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori took the prize in 2004 – PASSION FOR GOLD
Saeed Bin Suroor has a +£38 level stakes profit with his 4+year-olds here – PASSION FOR GOLD
William Haggas has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds here – GREEN DESTINY
Kieren Fallon is 6 from 29 (21%) when riding older horses at the track – GREEN DESTINY

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2.30 –DUBAI DUTY FREE MILL REEF STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £34,026 CH4 6f 

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
7 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Only 1 double-figure priced winning in the last 10 years
Only 2 of the last 10 won their last race
8 of the last 10 finished 4th or better in their previous race
2 of the last 10 ran in the Gimcrack at York last time
4 of the last 10 ran at Doncaster last time out
3 of the last 10 ran at Deauville in their previous race
Richard Hannon won this in 2004 and 2005 – REDACT (Hughes) and CROWN DEPENDACY
Mick Channon landed the prize in 2002 – FACTORY TIME
Mick Channon is only 5 from 143 (3%) with his 2 year-olds at the course – FACTORY TIME
Richard Hannon has a 13% record (41 from 323) and is -£92 with his 2 year-olds here – REDACT (Hughes) and CROWN DEPENDACY
James Toller is 1-from-1 with his juveniles at the track – SAIGON
Frankie Dettori has a 34% record when riding 2 year-olds at Newbury – B FIFTY TWO
Jimmy Fortune boasts a +£48 level stakes profit when riding juveniles here – CROWN DEPENDACY
Chris Catlin is 0 from 26 rides on 2 year-olds at the track – FACTORY TIME

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3.05 – DUBAI DUTY FREE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £46,688 CH4 1m2f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years (joint)
50% of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
9 of the 10 were won by either a 3 or 4 year-old
NO winner aged older than 5 years-old in the last 10 years
7 of the last 10 came from stall 10 or HIGHER
9 of the last 10 DID NOT WIN their last race
4 of the last 10 finished second in their previous race
50% race at either York or Ascot last time out
8 of the last 10 carried 9-4 or LESS
Luca Cumani has won the race in 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2010 – NAQSHABBAN (Buick) and KIRTHILL (Fallon)
Sir Michael Stoute won this in 2003 – LABARINTO
Mark Johnston took the prize in 2001 – OCEANWAY, MASTER OF ARTS, JUTLAND and MALTHOUSE
Luca Cumani has a 20% (7 from 35) strike-rate with his 3 year-olds here – NAQSHABBAN and KIRTHILL
Saeed Bin Suroor is 6 from 31 (19%) with his 3 year-olds at the track – ROAYH
John Gosden has a 27% record with his older horses at Newbury – TAQLEED
Richard Fahey is only 2 from 32 with his 4+year-olds here – OUR JOE MAC and INGLEBY SPIRIT
Jimmy Fortune is just 1 from 63 when riding older horses at the course – BEAUMONT’S PARTY
Frankie Dettori has a 19% record on 3 year-olds here – ROAYH

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3.40 – DUBAI INTERNATIONAL WORLD TROPHY (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £28,355 CH4 5f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
8 of the last 10 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
3 year-olds have the best recent record – winning 4 of the last 10
8 of the last 10 aged 5 or YOUNGER
9 of the last 10 finished in the top 3 last time out
7 of the last 10 ran their previous race in a Listed race or better
6 of the last 10 winners ran at either Doncaster (3) or the Curragh (3) last time
Ed McMahon’s ASTROPHYSICAL JET won the race 12 months ago
Bryan Smart’s MOORHOUSE LAD won the prize in 2008
Andrew Balding is only 4 from 48 with his 3 year-olds here – NIGHT CARNATION
Sir Michael Stoute has a 31% (10 from 320 record with his older horses here – KINGSGATE NATIVE

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Newmarket (C4)

3.30 – BETFRED CESAREWITCH TRIAL (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £32,345 CH4 2m2f

Only 2 previous runnings
Winners aged 3 and 4 years-old
No winning favourite
Both carried 8-2 or LESS
Both ran at York in their previous race
John Gosden has an 18% record with his 3 year-olds at Newmarket – PALAZZO BIANCO
Mark Johnston is only 4 from 56 (7%) with his older horses at the track – MONTPARNASSE
Brian Ellison is 0 from 24 with his 4+year-olds here – PALOMAR
Despite winning last year’s renewal Jimmy Quinn is only 2 from 58 when riding older horses here – PALOMAR
Jim Crowley is just 1 from 40 when getting the leg-up on older horses at the track – BIG OCCASION
Tom Queally has an impressive +£41 level stakes profit when riding older horses at HQ – MY ARCH

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