Today promises to set a new record for the totejackpot pool, as the total will definitely surpass the previous record of Â£1.4million and could threaten the Â£2 million barrier.
Of course, as exciting as that is, it doesn’t make it any easier to win! However, to try to assist and to mark the event, I’ll be live blogging all afternoon, as the action unfolds, and I’d love for you to be a part of it. As such, your comments, questions, the current status of your jackpot/placepot, will all make for extremely valuable additions to the setup. So… don’t be shy! 😉
OK, now as promised, to get the ball rolling, I’m offering exclusive ‘for this weekend only’ access to my very cool multi-bet builder tool that I had built at a cost of many hundreds of pounds (and which I consider a snip), to help you plan your jackpot / placepot attack.
The link to the tool is here, along with full details on how to use it: Multi-Bet Builder tool.
I’ll be back around midday with my own thoughts on the racing, plus my stab at the jackpot. [Hint: I’m not expecting to be a single winning ticket!]
1046: Opening gambit. Yesterday, there was a huge surge of money coming into the pool very late (within the last five minutes). It’s possible, though unlikely, that a repeat of that – and perhaps more – could cause tote some technical issues, leading to some tickets not getting in. For that reason, I’ll be putting my bets in around 15-20 minutes before the off.
I’ve chosen my likely perm, but may still play with it a little between now and off time, depending on market moves and non-runners.
Bring it on!!
1057: Is anybody out there? What are your jackpot bankers? Toughest race? What do you think?!
1105: Here are my notes on the opening race, cribbed from the excellent HorseRaceBase…
– 8/14 won Last Time Out; 4/14 were 2nd to 4th
– 11/14 12/1 or shorter
– Highest rated winner was off 95 (EIGHT were unrated)
– 3 fav, 2x2f, 1x3f, 2x4f, 2x5f, 1x6f, 3 longer priced
– 10/14 ran 8/30 days ago
– 11/14 had 1-3 prior starts (4/3/4)
And Andy Newton’s observations:
1.15 – SAKHEE OH SO SHARP STAKES (GROUP 3) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner Â£19,281 CH4
2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
7 of the last 10 winners returned 15/2 or SHORTER in the betting
3 double-figure priced winners
No trainer with a runner here has won the race in the last 10 years
In-form Mahmood Al Zarooni has a 27% record with his juveniles at the track â€“ RAKASA and MINIDRESS
Seb Sanders is 7 from 30 (23%) and +Â£77 when riding 2 year-olds here â€“ ALBASPINA
And Malcolm Boyle’s ‘Well I Declare’ notes:
â€˜Oh So Sharp Stakesâ€™ scheduled for 1.15: The last five winners have scored at prices ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 with no successful market leaders sighted during the period.
Any clearer now?! 😉
1129: Here’s a thought for those with deeper pockets… A ‘mere’ Â£151,200 will buy you a 50p ticket with every possible combination. Then you can really cheer the outsiders home!!
1134: Using the Bet Builder, you could reduce this to a trifling Â£52,864… Almost worth considering…! 😉
1137: Race 2 thoughts and comments:
Used to be a handicap (Listed) run at Ascot (one of a number of races â€˜sacrificedâ€™ in return for the prize of Champions Day), and was dominated by 3yo’s often at high prices. Now it’s a stakes race, I think it will be all change.
Seta is the obvious one, with her Listed record the best here.
Andy Nâ€™s view:
No previous runnings
William Haggas has a 23% record (+32) here with his 3 year-olds â€“ ELECTRA STAR
Chris Wall is just 2 from 33 with his older horses here â€“ WAKE UP CALL
Luca Cumani is only 3 from 41 with his 4+year-olds at the course – SETA
Richard Hughes has a +Â£41 level stakes profit when riding older horses here – SOORAAH
Neil Callan is only 1 from 44 when riding older horses at HQ â€“ DARK PROMISE
1140: And three of the remaining four races (you’re on your own in the maiden!)
2.25 – NAYEF JOEL STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner Â£56,710 CH4
– 11/14 1st to 3rd LTO
– 13/14 3 or 4yo (8/5)
– 9/14 8-30 days; 5/14 91-365 days
– 10/14 6/4-8/1
– 12/14 1st 5 in betting (4/4/1/1/2)
4 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 joint)
NO winner older than 5 years-old in the last 10 years â€“ Negative for PREMIO LOCO
4 of the last 5 winners were aged 4 years-old
7 of the last 10 returned 5/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Sir Michael Stoute won this in 2005 and 2009 â€“ TAZAHUM
Saeed Bin Suroor took the prize in 2006 and 2007 â€“ EMERALD COMMANDER and POETâ€™S VOICE (Frankie)
The Hills stable won this in 2003 â€“ RANSOM NOTE
Chris Wall is just 2 from 33 with his older horses here â€“ PREMIO LOCO
Richard Hughes has a -Â£55 loss when riding 3 year-olds here â€“ LIBRANNO
3.00 – SHADWELL FILLIESÂ´ MILE (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner Â£92,721 CH4
– 10/14 1st LTO (2 x 2nd)
– 14/14 8-60 days (3 x 8-15; 7 x 16-30)
– 10/14 4/1 or shorter
– 5 x fav, 4 x 2f, 2 x 3f, 3 x 4f
– 12/14 2 or 3 runs
4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
9 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Godolphin won the race 12 months ago â€“ LYRIC OF LIGHT
Clive Brittain won the prize in 2009 â€“ SEMAYYEL
John Gosden took the race in 2004, 2005 and 2008 â€“ FALLEN FOR YOU
Aidan Oâ€™Brien won the race in 2007 â€“ DEVOTION
Jimmy Fortune rode the winner in 2004, 2005 and 2008 â€“ SWINGLAND
In-form Mahmood Al Zarooni has a 27% record with his juveniles at the track â€“ LYRIC OF LIGHT
Seb Sanders is 7 from 30 (23%) and +Â£77 when riding 2 year-olds here â€“ ALBAMARA
Jimmy Fortune has a +Â£50 level stakes profit when riding 2 year-olds at HQ â€“ SWINGLAND
4.10 â€“ Godolphin Stakes (Listed)
– 9/14 1st-3rd LTO (4/3/2)
– 13/14 3 or 4yo (6/7)
– 13/14 16+ days since run
– 6 fav, 4 x2f, 3 x4f
1209: Thanks a lot for your comments and tips, guys. Keep them coming! The placepot pool is now over Â£51,000 and I reckon that’ll be up to Â£150,000+ by off time. Personally, I’m struggling to make a case for any of the longer priced horses (except Samitar and Nayarra, and perhaps Ragsah), which means at best I’ll share with about a thousand others.
Oh well, nothing ventured…!
1229: Unsurprisingly the other placepot pools are suffering. Less than 36k between Haydock and Worcester so far. Newmarket placepot currently at Â£83,665 and jackpot now over Â£1.5 million. Woohoo! 🙂
[Remember to hit refresh for up to the latest updates – I don’t know how to automate that!]
1241: Big News! If you’re doing a hefty perm (or even if you’re not), Betfair are giving 10% cash back if you bet with them.
1242: Hang on – just checked the small print. It’s worth something, but not a lot! Here’s the fine details:
- Opt in using bonus code “JACKPOT 230911”hereÂ and place at least Â£/â‚¬50 on Jackpot bets at Newmarket on Friday 23rd September.Â
- Get 10% cashback from the total amount staked, up to a maximum of Â£/â‚¬100.
- Plus, use ourÂ FREE Timeform Racecard for the Newmarket meetingÂ to help you make your Jackpot picks.
1255: Twenty minutes to go, and I’m now in the pool! Jim C has a 20% share of my tickets (that’s Â£100.80 please, James!) and we’ll be cheering market leaders and hoping for a share of the pot mainly.
Obviously, my thinking – based on form / trends – has led me to believe it will be fairly straightforward this afternoon, and the pot will be shared by many people getting a better than SP payoff. But I’m generally wrong on such matters, so why would this afternoon be any different?!
1305: OK, there are just ten minutes before kick off, and the pool is up to Â£2,415,019 ! There must be some very big fish in there. I’m pretty sure that every single combination is covered, and some of the monster perms will have ten quid plus on the more logical combinations. So, expect a winner, and if fancied horses come in, expect to share a LOT of ways!
Here’s my perm. Please let me get through the first race…!
1310: Twitchy about that money for Desert Gazelle… Â£2.6million and rising… Â£3million might just be a bridge too far, but it’ll be close.
Â£152,000 in placepot pool, and Â£2,861,706 in that jackpot pool.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL WHO ARE IN EITHER ‘POT!
1317: Money for Alsindi was well informed, and Questing – an A pick for me – is done by the Clive Brittain charge, a B pick. Looks like Rakasa went wrong – Frankie was looking down at her from the very start, and pulled her up in the end. 5/1 joint favourites first and second, with the lower racecard number (#2) Alsindi winning. That’s material as there will be a lot of cash on unnamed favourite.
Will bring you pool updates when they’re through…
1330: OK, one down, five to go.
Placepot pool was Â£169,964, with Â£76,107 making it through to leg two.
Jackpot pool was Â£2,921,589, with Â£287,886.50 making it through to leg two.
By my calculations, the net pools (i.e. after deductions) should be Â£124,073.72 for the placepot, and Â£2,191,191.75 in the jackpot!
The jackpot is currently paying Â£7.60 – better than the 5/1 SP for the first winner!
Still in? Hard luck stories? Leave a comment and share the joy/despair.
1337: Leg 2 breakdown for jackpot punters:
I probably shouldn’t say it, but I thought Seta was the most likely favourite of the jackpot six. Given that joint jollies were first and second in the opener, that will likely return to haunt me. Seta is a banker on my A tickets… gulp.
1355: Dark Promise wins the second, yet again seeing off my ‘A’ pick. Didn’t think it was a brilliant ride from Kieren personally. He might have asked Seta for her run earlier (should have done), and they’re going very well from the front today it seems.
So it’s A’s all the way, or good night Vienna. Â£50,775.79 left in the pool… dividend for a pound is now Â£43.10, which betters SP double of Â£30 by nearly 50%…
1400: By the way, if you’re on facebook or twitter or anything like that – maybe even Google +1! – can you click the ‘like’ or ‘share’ buttons below and/or up and to the right, please? I’d love to get the ‘live blog’ message out further.
Who’s still going in the jackpot?!
1407: Leg 3 breakdown as follows:
Jim and I have two hopes here. No, not Slim and Bob, although that might be true in half an hour or so!
In fact, we’re on horses 6 and 7, better known as Libranno and Tazahum. Obviously, with only the A picks left, it’s looking extremely unlikely that we can navigate a route to race six on a single ticket.
That solitary slip looks like this:
Come on Libranno! In support of him, he is quite likely to try to make all. But… this is his first try beyond seven furlongs, so he might not get home… :-S
1417: Correction – Libranno was second in the Craven over a mile first time out this season.
1429: It’s all over in this corner. Ransom Note was feared but excluded from both A and B lines. Needed it as an ‘A’ in any case. I’m not exactly sure why Libranno was held up for about the first time in his career…! There is now Â£8,151.62 left in the jackpot pool, and if you’re still going, you’re probably getting excited!
That means the jackpot is now paying Â£268.80, as opposed to an SP treble of Â£150, for a Â£1 stake.
Question: Is anyone still alive in the jackpot?!
1439: Obviously, it’s quite disappointing to go out so early, and then realise that a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm of the first two in the betting would still be going! Joint favourite, second favourite, second favourite so far… At least that gives hope that a Geegeez reader (or two, or three) may be amongst the remaining ticket holders.
1448: Good news! Just realised my Â£9.60 placepot perm is still running…! Â£500 down on the main wager but I’ve got a 10p line kicking on in the placepot. Woohoo!
A tiny silver lining to a vast cumulu-stratus!
1505: Frankie gets a BIG let-off there. These jockeys are seriously stupid, if they haven’t cottoned on that the far rail is like a road this afternoon.
Lyric of Light is definitely the best horse in the race (twice a winner for Super Trainers!), as she came from an unfavoured part of the track. But Samitar almost nicked it. Kieren was caught out earlier, and Frankie almost then.
Surely… surely…. SURELY, the jockeys won’t let a horse get an easy lead on the far rail again… will they?!
1508: Favourite obliging means we now have Â£2,752.54 rolling onto leg five, and the ‘first two in the betting’ brigade would be looking good! I make the jackpot dividend after four legs Â£796. This compares with an SP return of Â£450.
The disparity is almost double now…
1511: Crikey! What a big old spread there is in the maiden – the fifth leg of this monster jackpot. All horses covered for at least a fiver and all bar one for Â£29 or more. The jackpot WILL be won today.
1516: Zzzzz…. Is anybody still out there? Send me a life sign – leave a comment. Hard luck stories? Still going? Didn’t bother because it was too hard/ expensive/both? Let me know what you’re thinking.
1526: Thanks to David for confirming there is life beyond my keyboard this afternoon…! 😉
1534: This just in from Chris, whose placepot is hanging in there:
STILL HANGING IN
1/ 10 9
2/ 4 1
3/ 3 2
5/ 6 3 1
Great fun for afternoon
1639: Yet ANOTHER ‘rail-road’ winner. Spiritual Star hacks up on the favoured rail. Not sure if he went off favourite or not… awaiting SP’s.
1642: He did. 7/2, so that means there are 639.64 tickets heading into the last leg. As such, jackpot dividend is currently paying Â£3,425.66.
That compares favourably enough with an SP return of Â£2,025.
Unless there’s a bomb in the last, the jackpot will make a lot of small punters quite happy, and a lot of big punters quite sad (as they fail to recoup the cost of their combinations)
1644: the tote are really on their game this afternoon, with the final leg breakdown already through. Well done guys! Here’s how it’s shaping up:
Plenty of spread across the five horses, with those on Al Shemali praying for that one!
1649: As things stand, I predict the dividends will pay as follows, for each possible winner (and assuming that Myplacelater is sent off favourite)
1 – Â£26,241.80
2 – Â£37,138.80
4 – Â£24,079
6 – Â£7,780.10
7 – Â£17,546.30
So… no big winner today, but maybe plenty of ‘ordinary’ punters a good few grand better off. Good luck to the littl’uns against the syndicates, that’s what I say! 😀
1651: Incidentally, and somewhat frustratingly, a 50p perm covering the first two in the betting in each race would have Myplacelater and Mahbooba for seven or seventeen grand riding in the last, from a Â£32 stake. Bugger!
1616: Mike de Kock’s Mahbooba completes the jackpot ticket. By my calculations, it’s going to pay Â£17,546.30. Well done to all who managed to grab a slice of that.
1622: That compares pretty well with the SP accumulator, which would have paid Â£8,100, just 46% as much. As you can see, it was well worth being involved with.
In the end, it was only the exclusion of Ransom Note which cost us the ‘pot. But then, with all six horses coming from the first two in the betting, it was one of those days when a lot of people will be looking back on what might have been…
In case you think my luck’s not terrible, I was given a tip for a horse this morning. Put a bet on Betfair at 35/1, unmatched, and it won at 16/1. Betfair SP was 29.82. And Al Shemali did me for a couple of quid when beating All The Aces out of the frame on the placepot as well. Oh dear.
I’m off for a bit of a lie down, and a quiet simmer. Before I go though, I need to tell you of a further rollover pool tonight.
It’s at Belmont Park, and their Pick Six has a $137,000 rollover. Better still, they pay a consolation if you get five out of six right.
1625: My error – not sure how they calculate those jackpot dividends. It was my understanding that the ‘takeout’ is 25%, leaving a net dividend of 75%. Apparently it’s a bit higher than that. In any case, the final divi for those lucky enough to have it, was Â£16,610.50. Well done indeed.
1641: Thanks a lot for all your comments and emails this afternoon. Much obliged. I’ve enjoyed the live blogging, and will definitely do it again… maybe for the Friday of the Cheltenham Open Meeting in November. 🙂
Just one final footnote: Andy has his weekend TV trends post up, featuring amongst others, the Betfred Cambridgeshire, and you can see it here: Saturday TV Trends.