Trainer Trends – 29th Sept

We Expect Big Things From The Charlie Longsdon Yard This Season

This week Andy Newton’s got nine hot trainers to keep on your side, plus an interesting high-profile handler that you might want to keep at arm’s length at present…….

CHARLIE LONGSDON (6 winners from his last 13 runners, 46% strike-rate) – The Oxon-based handler was top of the list last week and with three more successes since he certainly didn’t let us down. Okay, the trio were all favourite and it looks as if the stable’s current good form is no secret now, but, like I said last week, I’m expecting big things from this outfit this NH season and with 17 winners from just 54 runners (31%) they already had some solid foundations to make this a great season. Felix De Giles gets the leg-up on most of their runners, but do keep an eye out for young Gerald Quinn or Kielan Woods doing the steering – they’ve ridden a winner each for the yard in the last week. Finally, it’s interesting that they’ve had two impressive NH Flat race winners recently in the shape of Magnifique Etoile and Hazy Tom – they both look exceptional prospects providing they take to hurdles and should be followed. 
Entries and 5 year track stats: Bangor (8 from 39, 21% +£34), Warwick (2 from 19, 11%) and Fontwell (4 from 40, 10%).

JOHN SPEARING (3 winners from his last 7 runners, 43% strike-rate) – 5/1, 13/2 and 9/2 winners in recent weeks has seen the Spearing yard hit the headlines this month and with more entries this Thursday and Saturday then it could pay to have them on your side at present. Surprisingly the stable have only had 8 winners – yes, 8 winners – this season and on the whole it’s been a campaign to forget. That said, they only managed 7 successes last season so I guess you could say things are actually on the up! The nine years previous to 2010 though saw them hit double figures every season, with their 2006 tally of 21 runners their best yet. 50% of their 8 winners this season have been with their older horses, so bear that in mind, while also keep an eye of for their runners over the sticks as they are a multi-purpose outfit – 0 winners from 15 NH runners so far.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Warwick (4 from 42, 10%), Kempton (4 from 64, 6%), Ascot (0 from 3) and Wolverhampton (1 from 62, 2%).

JEREMY NOSEDA (4 winners from his last 16 runners, 25% strike-rate):  Another Newmarket handler that’s ending the flat turf season on a high and needs just one more success to better last season’s tally of 55. Plus, if they can find seven more winners then they will soar past their best-ever total of 61 (2009), and with plenty of ammo this selective stable will be odds-on to achieve that. 31 of their victories this season have been with their 3 year-olds, while some might be surprised that they’ve only bagged 5 wins with their 4+year-olds. Dare to Dance, who was withdrawn when well-fancied for last week’s Cambridgeshire, won at Ayr on Tuesday with considerable ease and is one to follow again next time – providing, of course, he gets his favoured soft ground.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Kempton (24 from 134, 18%), Wolverhampton (20 from 69, 29%) and Newmarket (11 from 147, 7%).

RALPH BECKETT (5 winners from his last 20 runners, 25% strike-rate) – It’s unlikely the Beckett team will be topping last season’s tally of 69, with 40 winners so far, but they will be hoping to get into the late 40’s and with five recent winners (11/10, 11/4, 15/2, 15/8 and 14/1) then it will be a brave man to bet against them doing it. They are another yard that seems to farm most of their winners from their 3 year-old batch (130 in the last 5 years), while most come over trips of 1m2f or further. They are prone to firing one it at a price, backed up with 4 of their last 7 seasons seeing them post level stakes profits of over £80 – and drilling into this further then these positive figures are actually mainly due to a huge +£217 level stakes profit with their 2 year-olds! Jim Crowley is their main man in the plate, while the yard are probable wondering what could have been on Wednesday with 4 seconds and 1 winner from their 5 runners around the land.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Warwick (8 from 53, 15%), Kempton (36 from 194, 19%), Ascot (2 from 51, 4%), Wolverhampton (13 from 85, 15%) and Newmarket (9 from 66, 14%).

MAHMOOD AL ZAROONI (12 winners from his last 49 runners, 24% strike-rate): Another stable that featured last week, but with five more winners, albeit three of them favourites, then it’s hard not to include this half of the Godolphin outfit again. Interestingly Frankie was doing the steering on three of those recent 5 wins and is 3 wins from his last 4 rides for Al Zarooni, suggesting if the Italian makes the effort to ride it’s likely to have a great chance – Yes, nothing new there, but all the same worth pointing out. With 63 wins, £1.7 million in total prize money and a huge +£102 level stakes profit then it really has been a second season to remember and I fully expect them to better that next year with some cracking looking 2 year-olds to do battle with in 2012. Actually, sticking with their juveniles they’ve had 27 of their 61 wins with their youngsters so far, while a massive 71% of their 2 year-olds this season have finished 4th or better!
Entries and 5 year track stats: Warwick (1 from 5, 20%), Kempton (7 from 54, 13%), Ascot (5 from 42, 12%), Redcar (1 from 6, 17%) and Newmarket (14 from 44, 32%).

ALAN BAILEY (3 winners from his last 13 runners, 23% strike-rate) – The Bailey team are still dining out on three winners from the previous week, but the fact they’ve only had two runners since suggests their horses should still be respected. Yes, you could argue that if their runners are going so well then why have they not been out?  But they’ve not got the string they used to. All bar one of their runners of late have been over a mile or shorter, while although he’s only ridden one of those 3 winners jockey Darryll Holland has been on the majority. With 36 winners this season this is already their best ever campaign, beating 35 in 1995, while they are operating on a +£157 level stakes profit – mainly due to Queens Sandridge going in at a monster 100/1 back in August at Wolverhampton.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Wolverhampton (23 from 165, 14%) and Ascot (1 from 13, 8%).

ROGER VARIAN (7 winners from his last 31 runners, 23% strike-rate) – After the sad death of his former boss Michael Jarvis the Varian team have really done the old master of Kremlin House proud with four more winners – and at tasty prices too (10/3, 4/1, 11/1 and 14/1). With 47 winners from just 211 runners and over £650,000 in win prize money banked then it’s clear just what a good debut campaign they’ve had. Add to that a +£59 level stakes profit and the fact that a huge 59% of their runners have finished fourth or better then I’m sure they’ve made a few friends in punter land this season. Neil Callan has ridden all-bar-one of their recent winners (Fergus Sweeney being the other), while 30 of their 47 winners have come with their 3 year-olds.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Kempton (0 from 11), Newmarket (2 from 9, 22%), Ascot (1 from 11, 9%) and Redcar (no runners yet).

GAY KELLEWAY (3 winners from her last 14 runners, 21% strike-rate): Gay is flying the ‘girl power’ flag at the moment with a 27/1 double at Bath on Monday, while they had a 12/1 winner 7 days earlier at Leicester. Stable jockey Robert Winston has been on all three winners and it goes without saying gets the nod on most of their runners. In terms of this season they’ve actually only had 15 winners and need 6 more to get into the 20’s – something they’ve achieved in 8 of the 9 previous campaigns. Drilling into this year’s successes 73% of them have been with their older horses, but they have bagged three 2 year-old winners, which is not bad considering the size of the yard and the competition in that age group.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Wolverhampton (19 from 158, 12%), Kempton (17 from 152, 11%), Newmarket (2 from 36, 6%) and Ascot (0 from 35).

LUCA CUMANI (4 winners from his last 23 runners, 17% strike-rate) – The two-times Derby winning trainer has not really had a star name to go to war with in recent seasons, and they’ve only ever topped the 100 barrier once (1990) since 1988, but with 40 winners so far they are set to have a ‘normal looking’ Cumani season by their standards. It’s interesting that all-bar-two of their seasons since 1988 (24) have resulted in significant level stakes losses – suggesting you have to be selective when backing their runners. They have by far the best record with their 3 year-olds, with 150 successes in this age bracket in the last 5 seasons, while with only 34 two year-old wins (average of 6.8 a year) in the same period then it’s no secret that their juveniles often need to time to progress.
Entries and 5 year track stats: Warwick (3 from 25, 12%), Kempton (22 from 128, 17%), Ascot (7 from 75, 9%) and Newmarket (15 from 109, 14%).

This Week’s Cold Trainer………

MICHAEL BELL (41 days and 59 runners without a winner): The eagle-eyed out there will point out that the Bell team did actually have a winner during that 41 day period, and although you get full marks for noticing, it did come in Canada with one of their stable stars Wigmore Hall, so, therefore, he unfortunately still qualifies for the main UK cold list. Despite that win I think you’ll all agree that the baron spell is still quite alarming for such a high-profile yard and with another 4 unplaced on Wednesday then things really are starting to look a concern. On a plus note the injured Hayley Turner has not really missed much and with one of her main stables so badly out of form then she would probably have lost her battle for winners with Cathy Gannon anyway. Away from this bad run they’ve actually not had too bad a campaign with 42 winners (12 shy of last season’s tally) and they did, of course, have Margot Did landing the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes last month.  Can they turn things around in the closing few weeks of the turf flat season?
Entries and 5 year track stats: Warwick (4 from 33, 12%), Kempton (11 from 120, 9%), Ascot (14 from 89, 16%) Wolverhampton (26 from 128, 20%) and Newmarket (10 from 113, 9%).

 
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