Trainer Trends – 6th Oct

Michael Bell

Michael Bell: 48 Days Without a Winner!

Andy Newton brings 13 hot trainers to your attention this week, plus there’s a familiar look to the high-profile handler who is still on the cold list, can he end his lean spell this week?………

TOM TATE (3 winners from his last 4 runners, 75% strike-rate): Three of the yard’s last 4 runners have bowled in and with one being a rewarding 40/1 then all things are rosy at the Tate camp. Looking ahead they’ve got a few going on Thursday to keep an eye on, another at York on Friday and a few more on Saturday too. So far this season they’ve bagged 14 winners and need 6 more to better 2010 and make this their best-ever year. They are also operating on a +£18 level stakes profit and despite only having a handful of winners they did land the Cambridgeshire last month to take their total prize money this season to a healthy £248,000. Don’t forget they will also be having interests over the sticks and have already sent out 2 winners from 15 NH runners this campaign.
Entries and track stats: – Ayr (5 from 21, 24%) and York (3 from 71, 4%)

MATTHEW SALAMAN (3 winners from his last 6 runners, 50% strike-rate): Not a name many punters are familiar with and the first time we’ve seen them pop up on the weekly hot trainers list, but with 8/1, 6/1 and 13/2 winners from his last 6 runners then it’s worth making a note of anything they are running in the coming weeks. Based at Upper Lambourn in Berkshire the yard have only been on the go for 3 season and with just 18 winners (from 219 runners) over that period you can see just how important and rare those three recent success are. They managed 9 victories last term but it’s worth pointing out that 13 of their total 18 winners came with their 4+year-olds – the other 5 being aged 3. The only downside is that they don’t have a big string and, therefore, no entries on the horizon – still thought they were worthy of a mention though.
Entries and track stats: – No five day entries at this stage.

ALAN BROWN (3 winners from his last 7 winners, 43% strike-rate):
Won’t be known to your average punter and with a small string you’ll have to keep a close eye on his entries in the coming days, but they’ve had three of their last 7 runners end up in the winners’ enclosure and at 11/2, 6/1 and 14/1 to boot! Based up in North Yorkshire the yard have only had 6 winners all season, so that makes the last few weeks even more significant having doubled their tally in the space of days. Their best haul came in 2009 with 10 victories, so if one or two of their recent successes can follow-up in the coming weeks then they might have a squeak of bettering that. Interestingly 5 of their 6 winners this term have been with their 3 year-olds (5 from 31, 16%), while don’t forget they do have the odd runner over the sticks.
Entries and track stats: – Hexham (0 from 4) and Wolverhampton (4 from 84, 15%)


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JAMES FANSHAWE (3 winners from his last 10 runners, 30% strike-rate): The Pegasus House stable have already had a season to remember with the likes of Deacon Blues and Society Rock, and with both entered in next week’s Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot then they might not be finished just yet. The yard couldn’t be heading into that lucrative meeting in better form with three recent winners – one of which was a monster 100/1. In terms of hard winners they’ve currently banged in 26 successes this season, and need just 4 more to surpass their 2010 total, but they are way off their best ever tally of 58 (2002). They bagged over £531,000 in total prize money so far this season, while although operating on a +£105 level stake profit that is totally down to their recent 100/1 winner! Finally, they’ve yet to have a 2 year-old winner this term, but only had 2 last season and we all know they take their time with their horses – with  3 and 4+ year-olds the ones they excel with.
Entries and track stats: – Wolverhampton (10 from 53, 19%), York (2 from 12, 17%) and Goodwood (4 from 28, 14%)

SHEENA WEST (2 winners from her last 7 runners, 29% strike-rate):
A near on 12/1 double at Huntingdon on Sunday suggests it could be worth keeping an eye on anything the Sheena West team send out soon. Based in East Sussex the yard does have a couple of interests at this stage at Chepstow on Saturday, but note that one of those – Mohanad (won at Huntingdon on Sunday) – is also engaged in the Betfred Cesarewitch at HQ. In that batch of 7 recent runners they also had a few seconds to further back up the well being of their string, while jockey Marc Goldstein is their main man in the plate. They are, of course, better known for their jumpers but they‘ve had 8 winners from just 41 runners on the level in 2011 (20%). Looking at their jump figures the season has barely got into second gear and they’ve already bagged 8 winners – 2 more than then got in 2010-11! They could be a yard going places over the next 6 months over the sticks – one to watch!
Entries and track stats: Chepstow (0 from 2) and Newmarket (0 from 3)

RALPH BECKETT (6 winners from his last 24 runners, 25% strike-rate):
We flagged up the Becket team last week and hopefully you took the hint as they’ve fired in 3 more winners – and at decent prices too (8/1, 7/4 and 15/2). All three were ridden by different pilots, but Jim Crowley is their main man and will more often than not get first choice. 53% of their runners (160/303) this season have finished fourth or better, so you always get a run for you money with the Beckett horses, but with only 43 winners so far they are well short of last season’s total of 69 successes. We might see a few more of their backend 2 year-olds over the coming weeks and despite only having 8 juvenile wins so far this season it’s worth noting that 33 of their 65 two year-olds have finished in the frame suggesting they are more forward than most.
Entries and track stats: – Wolverhampton (13 from 85, 15%), York (1 from 31, 3%), Newmarket (9 from 67, 13%) and Goodwood (6 from 87, 7%)

BRENDAN POWELL (3 winners from his last 13 runners, 23% strike-rate):
The former jump jockey has sent out one flat winner and two NH successes over the last couple of weeks from just 13 runners and deserves a mention this week. Fairly average prices at 5/1, 7/2 and 5/1, but they did book the services of AP McCoy for their Arctic Reach at Market Rasen at the end of last month and should the champ get the leg-up on any future runners it goes without saying this is a huge tip in itself. On the level this season they sent out 12 winners from 104 runners so far, 9 of which came with their 4+year-olds. However, they do have more runners (84 so far this season) over the sticks and already have 13 (9 hurdles & 4 chase) victories under rules. They only need 9 more to surpass last season’s jump tally of 22, while I’m sure they’ll be aiming at getting near their best ever total of 53 achieved in 2007/08.
Entries and track stats: – Worcester (6 from 67, 9%), Exeter (4 from 66, 6%), Newton Abbot (8 from 61, 13%) York (0 from 2), Chepstow (2 from 30, 7%) & Goodwood (2 from 34, 6%)

RICHARD HANNON (20 winners from his last 85 runners, 24% strike-rate): The fact they simple have so many more runners each week than all other trainers means that for them to be currently operating around the 24% strike-rate mark is a feat in itself.  Three more lucrative Saturday winners has seen their prize haul break through the £3,310,00 barrier and that along with the £2,093.00 win fund means this will be the yard’s best ever season in terms of prize money. Their promising 2 year-old Rougemont keep things ticking over under great tactical ride from Richard Hughes at Leicester on Tuesday, and they added three more around the land on Wednesday – with 187 wins so far they still need another 23 to beat last season’s 210.  It’s hardly surprising that 104 of their 183 winners have come with their juveniles this term, but you might not have guessed that their 2 year-olds this season have a +£80 level stakes profit. Again nothing too out of the ordinary but they only had 19 4+year-old successes from 142 runners, but do keep an eye on their all weather runners as 48% of their runners this year have hit the frame at worse (41 winners).
Entries and track stats: – York (8 from 81, 10%), Wolverhampton (29 from 134, 22%), Newmarket (39 from 329, 12%) and Goodwood (79 from 519, 15%).

WALTER SWINBURN (4 winners from his last 18 runners, 22% strike-rate):
He’s not got long left before hanging up his trainer’s licence after announcing his retirement earlier this season, but it’s great to see the former Derby-winning jockey ending with a real bang. A 13/2 winner at Windsor on Monday followed three more at the backend of September and all his owners must be wondering why the choirboy has decided to call time on this handling days. He’s sent out a respectable 31 winners so far and although he bagged 52 in 2010 he’s still banked over £262,000 in total prize money for his owners this campaign. Yes, he’s voiced his concerns over the poor prize money for individual races and I guess the fact he’s not really had a stable star that could have followed in Stotsfold’s hoof prints might have been another reason for his decision. They’ve only had 1 two-year-old winner this term, with the majority of their victories coming with their 3 (16) and 4+ year-olds (14).
Entries and track stats: – Wolverhampton (22 from 162), York (1 from 14, 7%) and Goodwood (13 from 82, 16%).

BRYAN SMART (5 winners from his last 24 runners, 21% strike-rate):
With three winners towards the backend of September then I’m sure plenty of you took the hit that and were on their 14/1 Prix de l’ Abbaye winner Tangerine Trees on Arc day and with £147k banked from that win they’ve catapulted their earnings this season to £393k. Add to that the fact they only need 3 more winners (currently on 60) to make this their best-ever campaign then the figures certainly are cause for celebration at their North Yorkshire base. What’s eye catching about their winners this season is that they are split almost evenly across the age ranges, with 16 juvenile winners, 17 for their 3 year-olds and 27 with their 4+year-olds, but having a +£47 level stakes profit with their youngsters could be another profitable angle. 
Entries and track stats: – Ayr (10 from 89, 11%), Wolverhampton (23 from 186, 12%), York (4 from 70, 6%) and Newmarket (5 from 31, 16%)

EVE JOHNSON HOUGHTON (4 winners from her last 19 runners, 21% strike-rate):
Their stable star The Cheka ran a decent third at Ascot last weekend, and they followed that up with Phluke going in at a huge 28/1 on the same day at Redcar. Add in another 8/1 success at Windsor on Monday then they are certainly ending the turf flat season on a high. Win, lose or draw from here this is already going to be their best-ever campaign with 27 winners, £201k in prize money and if you’d backed all of their runners this season for £1 you’d be sitting on a cool £50! They’ve used 12 different jockeys in recent weeks, so not a lot I can tell you on that front, but they are 2 from 6 at York so it could pay to check for any runners on the Knavesmire this weekend.
Entries and track stats: – Goodwood (7 from 78, 9%) and York (2 from 6, 33%)

STUART WILLIAMS (4 winners from last 20 runners, 20% strike-rate):
One of the few remaining yards that have a bit of reputation for being a punting yard – so any significant moves for their runners should be noted. Two of their last 4 winners returned a handsome 16/1 so don’t be too afraid to back one at a price. They tend to use either Saleem Golam or young Ryan Clark, who still has the benefit of a 3lb claim, while Joe Fanning got the leg-up on one of those recent 16/1 shots. Over the years they’ve been a rather ‘Steady Eddie’ type of outfit with 20+ winners in all-bar-two of the last 11 seasons (currently on 24), but what is interesting is that their total prize money won this season is well down on all of the past 10 seasons. They’ve hit the £190,000 mark in 3 of their last 4 campaigns and with only £73k so far then let’s just hope they have a kind bank manager. If you drill deeper into their winners this season you’ll notice that they are 0 from 18 with their juveniles – with just one second, with 18 of their 24 victories coming with their 4+year-olds. Looking at their track records over the next few days it looks as if Wolverhampton might be the place to focus on with no winners at either York or Ayr in the past 5 seasons. 
Entries and track stats: – Ayr (0 from 7), Wolverhampton (22 from 142, 15%) and York (0 from 14)

GORDON ELLIOTT (6 winners from his last 33 runners, 18% strike-rate):
Okay, three of those recent 6 winners have come over in Ireland, but I know plenty of you out there still have a punt on the Emerald Isle action, while we all know the Grand National winning trainer is no stranger to raiding these shores with success. He tends to book AP as much as he can for his UK runners and this is backed up with the champ riding all his 3 recent winners in this country. Last season they grabbed 36 wins in the UK and with 26 from just 97 runners so far then it will be long odds-on that they’ll smash that. In contrast they sent out 62 Irish successes last term, but are only on 15 winners in their homeland so far. Finally, we all know it’s no real secret that his horses are expected to go well over here and that’s more than factored into the price these days, but for the past 3 seasons they operated at strike-rates of 29%, 27% and 28%, while in 2009-10 a monster 64% of all their runners finished fourth or better in this country!
Entries and track stats: – Tramore (6 from 30, 20%), Dundalk (4 from 42, 10%), Fairyhouse (8 from 79, 10%), Limerick (4 from 42, 10%)

This Week’s Cold Trainer……..

MICHAEL BELL (48 days and now 67 runners without a winner): Yes, this part of the weekly trainers piece is starting to have a very familiar look to it, but with such a high-profile handler having such a bad time of it over the last 1 ½ months then I still feel it’s worth bringing to your attention. I can also hear you saying that the longer their lean spell goes on then there’s a better chance of them turning it around, and I agree, but with Margot Did running so poorly in last weekend’s Abbaye and now 15 of their last 18 runners not even hitting the frame then the revival signs are still not great. On a plus note their strike-rates at two of the meetings (York and Wolverhampton) on the horizon are impressive and they’ll be banking of these getting them out of this slump.
Entries and track stats: York (10 from 54, 19%), Wolverhampton (26 from 117, 22%) and Newmarket (10 from 114, 9%)

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