TV Trends – Sat 15th October

Can Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Capella win the Champions Fillies & Mares’ Stakes for a third time this Saturday? – Andy Newton gives you all the big race trends & stats from Saturday’s LIVE TV races.

 

Ascot (BBC, RUK & ATR)

1.50 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC2 Good 2m

6 of the last 10 went to the favourite, including 4 of the last 5
8 of the last 10 returned 9/2 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 10 ran at Longchamp last time out
6 of the last 10 winners contested a Group race in their previous outing
6 of the last 10 were placed in their previous race
4 won their previous race
No real age trend with 3,4,6,7,8,9 & 10 year-olds all winning in the last 10 years
John Dunlop won this in 2004 & 2009 – TIMES UP
Saeed Bin Suroor took the prize in 2008 – DARLEY SUN
John Gosden won the race in 2001 – NEHAAM
Mark Johnston is only 13 from 139 (9%) with his 3 year-olds at Ascot – COLOUR VISION & ETERNAL HEART
Aidan O’Brien is 12 from 36 (33%) with his older horses here – FAME AND GLORY
John Gosden has a 21% (8 from 39, +£39) strike-rate with his older horses here – NEHAAM
John Dunlop is just 1 from 28 with his 4 year-olds + at the track – TIMES UP

*Note: Previously run at Newmarket

 
2.25 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC1 Good 6f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or LESS in the betting
NO winner in the last 10 years aged older than 5 years-old
4 of the last 5 went to a 3 year-old
2 of the last 3 winners returned a double-figure price
The last 7 winners all failed to win their previous race
3 of the last 5 ran in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last time out
6 of the last 10 ran in either a Listed or Group 3 race last time out
Johnny Murtagh has won this race in 2001 & 2005 – DEACON BLUES
Richard Hills rode the winner in 2007 & 2009 – DAFEEF
William Haggas won this race in 2008 – DAFEEF
Richard Hannon is only 5 from 109 with his 3 year-olds here – LIBRANNO
James Fanshawe is 9 from 47 (19%) with his 4 year-olds + at the course – SOCIETY ROCK & DEACON BLUES
Jeremy Gask is 4 from 19 (21%) with his older horses at Ascot – MEDICEAN MAN
William Haggas has a +£50 level stakes profit with his older horses here – DAFEEF
Johnny Murtagh has a 25% record (15 from 59) when riding older horses at Ascot – DEACON BLUES
Neil Callan is only 2 from 66 when riding 4 year-old+ at the course – ROYAL ROCK

*Note – 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

 
3.00 – Qipco British Champions Fillies´ And Mares´ Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC1 Good 1m4f

Only 3 previous runnings
Sir Michael Stoute’s CRYSTAL CAPELLA has won this in 2008 & 2010
Ryan Moore has rode the winner in 2008 & 2010 – CRYSTAL CAPELLA
2 of the last 3 were aged 3 years-old – BANIMPIRE, BIBLE BELT & DANCING RAIN
ALL 3 priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
Jim Bolger is 2 from 8 with his 3 year-olds at the track – BANIMPIRE
John Gosden has a 21% (8 from 39, +£39) strike-rate with his older horses here – GERTRUDE BELL
Johnny Murtagh has a 17% record (7 from 42) when riding 3 year-olds at Ascot – DANCING RAIN
Kieren Fallon is only 1 from 43 when riding older horses at the course – BRUSHING

*Note – Previously run at Newmarket

3.35 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) BBC1 Good 1m

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
9 of the last 10 returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
9 of the last 10 were placed last time out
4 of the last 6 won their previous race
50% of the last 10 winners ran at Goodwood last time out
9 of the last 10 ran in either a Group 1 or 2 in their previous race
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 10 years
3 year-olds have won 4 of the last 5 renewals – FRANKEL, IMMORTAL VERSE, EXCELEBRATION & DUBAWI GOLD
POET’S VOICE won the race 12 months ago
Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 2001, 2007 & 2010 – POET’S VOICE
Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 2007 & 2010 – POET’S VOICE
Sir Henry Cecil is 6 from 38 (16%) with his 3 year-olds here – FRANKEL
Richard Hannon is only 5 from 109 with his 3 year-olds at the track – DUBAWI GOLD
French jockey Gerald Mosse is 2 from 8 when riding 3 year-olds here – IMMORTAL VERSE

4.10 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £737,230 BBC1 Good 1m2f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9 of the last 10 winners were placed last time out
60% of the last 10 won their last race
3 of the last 4 ran at Leopardstown last time out
8 ran in a Group race last time out
Sir Henry Cecil’s Twice Over has won this for the past 2 years
2 of the last 10 went to a French-trained runner – CIRRUS DES AIGLES
The Hills stable won this in 2002 & 2004 – RANSOM NOTE
Aidan O’Brien is 12 from 36 (33%) with his older horses at Ascot – SO YOU THINK
William Haggas has a +£50 level stakes profit with his older horses here – GREEN DESTINY
Aidan O’Brien has never won this race – SO YOU THINK
William Buick has a +£46 level stake profit when riding 3 year-olds here – NATHANIEL

 
*Note – Previously run at Newmarket

 
Cheltenham (C4 & RUK)

2.05 – A P McCoy Autobiography Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Firm 3m1f110y

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
ALL 10 recent winners returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
ALL 10 recent winners were aged 7 or YOUNGER
5 of the last 10 were aged 5 years-old
Paul Nicholls won this in 2006 & 2010 – ROUND TOM
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2006 & 2010 – ROUND TOM
Henry de Bromhead is 3 from 7 with his hurdlers here – CATCHERINSCRATCHER
Paddy Brennan has a huge +£78 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course – TRABAJO

 
2.40 – ZEturf.com Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good To Firm 2m4f

3 winning favourites in the last 10 years (1 joint)
NO winner aged older than 9 years-old
8 of the last 10 carried 11-0 or MORE
A 6 year-old has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
Paul Webber’s EDGBRIAR won the race 12 months ago
Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2007 – BILLIE MAGERN
Jonjo O’Neill won the prize in 2006 – GILBARRY
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2001, 2003 & 2006 -  GILBARRY
Paul Webber has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his chasers here – EDGBRIAR & MARLEY ROCA

3.15 – Masterson Holdings Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo) CH4 Good To Firm 2m110y

Only 2 previous runnings
Gordon Elliott has a +£19 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course – PLAN A
Tim Vaughan is 0 from 19 with his hurdlers here – FIRST FANDANGO
Ruby Walsh has a 28% record (£55 level stakes profit) when riding hurdlers here – TONIC MELLYSSE
Dougie Costello is 0 from 17 when riding hurdlers at Cheltenham – PALAWI

 
3.50 – ZEturf.com Trophy Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good To Firm 3m110y

4 previous runnings
3 of the last 4 runnings went to an 8 year-old
ALL 4 carried 10-8 or MORE
3 of the last 4 carried 11-0 or MORE
Jonjo O’Neill took this race in 2009 – GALAXY ROCK
Philip Hobbs won this prize in 2008 – BALTHAZAR KING
Peter Bowen is only 1 from 28 with his chasers at Cheltenham – NORTH ISLAND

 
Catterick (C4 & RUK)

2.20 – toteplacepot Fillies´ Nursery (CLASS 4) (2yo 0-85) CH4 Soft 7f

3 previous runnings
2 of the 3 carried 9-2 or MORE
All three came from stall 7 or HIGHER
1 winning favourite (joint)
Tim Easterby won the race 12 months ago – ALABANDA, SEE CLEARLY and NEARLY A GIFT
In-form Mark Johnston has a 21% record (13 from 62) with his 2 year-olds here – ALWAYS ENDS WELL
David Evans has a 20% strike-rate with his juveniles at the track – AQUASULIS
Graham Gibbons has a 21% record (6 from 28) with his 2 year-olds here – NEARLY A GIFT

2.55 – totescoop6 Catterick Dash (Handicap Stakes) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) CH4 Soft 5f

Only 1 winning favourite (joint) in the last 10 years
9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/2 or BIGGER in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners were aged 4 years-old
50% of the last 10 winners were aged 4 years-old
7 of the last 10 winners carried 8-10 or MORE
8 of the last 10 came from stall 8 or LOWER
6 of the last 10 ran at either York or Ascot last time out
8 of the last 10 finished unplaced in their last race
JUDGE ‘N JURY won this in 2008
Tim Easterby won the race in 2009 – COCKTAIL CHARLIE & FAVOURITE GIRL
Kevin Ryan won the prize in 2007 – COURAGEOUS & BOLD BIDDER
Jim Goldie trained the winner in 2006 – RASAMAN
Brian Ellison has a 20% strike-rate with his older horses here – PELMANISM
Dandy Nicholls has a +£33 level stakes profit with his 4 year-olds+ at the track – FATHOM FIVE
Adrian Nicholls has a 20% strike-rate when riding older horses at the course – FATHOM FIVE

 
Kelso (C4 & ATR)

3.25 – EDF-ER Fallago Rig Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-140) CH4 Good To Soft 3m1f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
3 of the last 4 returned a double-figure price in the betting
ALL 10 recent winners aged 7 or OLDER
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or OLDER
Lucinda Russell trained the winner in 2007 – BESCOT SPRINGS
Ferdy Murphy won the race in 2006 – HENNESSY
Graham Lee rode the winner in 2001, 2001 & 2006 – HENNESSY
James Ewart is 5 from 25 (20%) with his chasers at Kelso – CAPTAIN AMERICO