Trainer Trends – 20th Oct

With the jumps season starting to hit top gear find out which NH handlers are hitting the ground running, while there’s a high-profile flat trainer who is on the cold list and heading for his worst campaign for over 20 years…..

This Week’s Hot Trainers……..

DAVID BRIDGWATER (4 winners from his last 7 runners, 57% strike-rate): Not had many runners of late, but the ones they are sending to post are clearly well forward and 4 winners from just 7 runners this month backs that up. In terms of jockeys they obviously like to use someone with the name ‘Tom’ as Messrs. Scudamore and Phelan have ridden all their recent runners – maybe Tom O’Brien should take note! Looking ahead they’ve got a few entered at Chepstow on Saturday, including their stable star The Giant Bolster, while with 5 winners already this season they need just three more to make this their best-ever jumps campaign!
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Chepstow (0 from 6)

JENNIE CANDLISH (3 winners from her last 6 runners, 50% strike-rate): A Uttoxeter treble last Friday meant that from just her last 6 runners she’s fired in 3 winners. In fact all of those last six runners finished sixth or better to further underline the wellbeing of her string. Keep an eye over both codes as they do often have all weather runners too, but so far over the sticks they’ve notched 6 winners and will be aiming to better last season’s win tally of 15. Thanks to a few big-priced winners last season they ended over the jumps with a monster +£173 level stakes profit from those 15 winners, so don’t be put off if one of theirs is an attractive price.
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Carlisle (0 from 10), Ludlow 2 from 24), Wolverhampton (0 from 54) & Wincanton (no runners)

WILLIAM JARVIS (3 winners from his last 6 runners, 50% strike-rate): The Newmarket-based trainer has fired in three winners priced 8/1, 9/2 and 12/1 this month from just a handful of runners and, therefore, anything they send to post at present should be noted. They are currently on 21 winners for the season, one more than 2010, but from just 124 runners all season they are operating on a 17% strike-rate. 13 of their 21 winners have been with their 3 year-olds, while be a bit wary of their juveniles with only 2 victories from 27 runners so far this campaign.
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Wolverhampton (10 from 60, 17%), Doncaster (2 from 23, 9%) & Newbury (0 from 10)

EVAN WILLIAMS (9 winners from his last 25 runners, 36% strike-rate): The jumps boys are starting to hit top gear and with big meetings at Aintree and Chepstow this weekend then you can expect to see more familiar names in action. The Williams team have certainly hit the ground running, but they’ve been fairly active through the summer so their horses are bound to be a tiny bit more forward than most yards. They had a winner and a second from just 4 runners at Cheltenham on Saturday and with 35 winners already this season then you can expect big things from the Welsh-based stable this term. They had their best-ever campaign in 2010/11 with 90 victories, so have some way to go to better that, but they’ve already taken a big step towards that and with a better string this time I’m confident they can break the 100 winners barrier for the first time. Stable jockey Paul Moloney, of course, gets first choice and has ridden 6 of those recent 9 winners.
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Ludlow (38 from 246, 15%), Carlisle (0 from 2), Fakenham (12 from 38, 32%), Chepstow (10 from 120, 8%) & Aintree (0 from 21)

CHARLIE LONGSDON (7 winners from his last 20 runners, 35% strike-rate): True, you could argue that it’s getting a bit boring seeing the Longsdon name on the hot trainers list each week, but I bet they don’t care. More midweek winners have cemented their place for another week and, like I seem to say every week, I’m expecting exctiting things from them over the next 6 months. With the season barely started they are already on the 26 winner mark and it’s amazing to think they only need another 18 to equal their win tally of last term. They are currently firing in the winners at an incredible 31% strike-rate, while are already showing a decent level stakes profit – in fact the yard has been in overall profit in 4 of their last 5 campaigns. Yes, their current good form is no secret to the layers, but jockey Felix De Giles has struck up a fantastic relationship with their runners and with this ever-improving team behind him then you can expect him to better his win total of 39 last season (currently ridden 19 winners).
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Carlisle (2 from 7, 29%), Ludlow (2 from 31, 6%), Stratford (11 from 50, 22%) Aintree (0 from 16), Chepstow (0 from 24) & Wincanton (0 from 11)

TIM VAUGHAN (9 winners from his last 29 runners, 31% strike-rate): There must be something in the Welsh air at present as Tim Vaughan, another handler from the Valleys, is hitting the headlines at the moment too. Yes, a lot of their winners are skinny prices these days, but they’ve only had one horse finish out of the first 6 in their last 24 runners! Dickie Johnson gets the leg-up of most of their horses and has in fact ridden 7 of their 9 recent winners, while with 57 winners already this season then it looks odds-on they will make this their best-ever season – with 91 to beat from 2010/11. They are operating around the 20% strike-rate mark, and in terms of the race breakdown it’s worth noting that of their 57 winners so far, 37 have come over hurdlers (16 fences, 4 NH Flat).
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Ludlow (7 from 50, 14%), Fakenham (11 from 41, 27%), Chepstow (7 from 81, 9%), Aintree (3 from 18, 17%) & Wincanton (9 from 34, 26%)

GARY MOORE (6 winners from his last 25 runners, 24% strike-rate): A busy yard with runners operating over both codes, but you can expect to see their jumping arm hotting up in the coming weeks and with a double at their local track Plumpton on Monday and another success at Fontwell on Wednesday then it’s clear their runners are in good order. Expect son Jamie to get the bulk of the rides over the sticks – he’s ridden three of their recent 5 jumps winners. In terms of the flat they’ve so far recorded 33 winners, but are still 10 shy of last season’s total, but over jumps they will be aiming for around the 50 winner mark and with 8 already then they are off and running. However, it’s worth pointing out that they’ve only recorded a level stakes profit in 2 of their last 19 campaigns over jumps, with the last profitable season being in 2005/06. Finally, it could pay to focus more on their hurdlers with all of the last 5 seasons seeing more winners over the smaller obstacles than over fences.
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Brighton (14 from 167, 8%), Wolverhampton (21 from 105, 20%), Stratford (3 from 42, 7%), Doncaster (0 from 9), Aintree (1 from 38, 3%), Newbury (2 from 61, 3%), Wincanton (8 from 46, 17%) & Chepstow (1 from 19, 5%)

SIR HENRY CECIL (4 winners from his last 17 runners, 24% strike-rate): Okay, so he’s still some way adrift of Richard Hannon in the trainer’s championship and that’s pretty much done and dusted now – but with Frankel in his care and the prospect of the world’s highest-rated flat horse carrying on at 4, then do you think he really cares? With Frankel’s winnings purse boosted again on Saturday then this season’s stable total prize money has actually been their best-ever (£2,735,000) and despite being selective with their runners of late you can expect them to still fire in a few more winners in the closing few weeks of the season.
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Doncaster (13 from 45, 29%) & Newbury (18 from 81, 22%)

GEORGE BAKER (3 winners from his last 14 runners, 21% strike-rate): No matter what happens in the final few weeks of the flat season the GB team have already made this season their best-ever with 42 winners and having remained around the 21% strike-rate mark for most of that time then they should be given a big pat on the back. Add in that they also have a +£19 level stakes profit this term then I’m sure there are plenty of you out there who have profited from their runners. They are also attracting the big jockeys with Frankie, Kieren and Jamie Spencer all being booked in recent weeks. 24 of their 42 flat winners have been with their older horses (+£58), but it’s worth noting that 59% of their 3 year-olds have finished four or better. Finally, don’t just confine your search for their daily runners to the flat cards as they do also campaign some of their runners over the sticks (already had 2 jumping winners this season).
Upcoming entries and track stats: – Brighton (8 from 35, 23%), Wolverhampton (32 from 170, 19%), Doncaster (3 from 13, 23%), Newbury (1 from 10, 10%) & Stratford (0 from 13)

This Week’s Cold Trainer……..

Sir Michael Stoute (27 days and 28 runners without a winner): With just 49 winners so far this season then unless things turn around in dramatic fashion this looks likely to be there worst season in over 20 years. They’ve also only scooped £580,000 in win prize money and although there’s a lot of trainer’s out there that would love to see those figures in Stoute’s world these are poor returns. Let’s put this into perspective – they’ve broken the £2million win fund for the past two seasons, while the last time they dipped under £1million was way back in 1999! They are too big a yard to lie down, but it is a bit worrying that so far we’ve not really seen any special 2 year-olds coming out of their ranks and, therefore, not a great deal to look forward to in 2012 – maybe that will make up their current stable jockey Ryan Moore’s decision to head over to Ballydoyle?

*Click on a trainer’s name to see their upcoming entries