Saturday TV Trends

At 7 years-old is Time For Rupert too young to win the Charlie Hall?

Based on the trends, at 7 years-old is Time For Rupert too young to win Saturday’s Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase? Find out here as Andy Newton casts his eye over all the LIVE C4 races this weekend from a stats angle…….

WETHERBY (C4 and RUK)

2.15 – Bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m110y

4 previous runnings
1 winning favourite
All 4 aged between 5-7 years-old
2 of the last 4 ran at Punchestown last time out – ALASI
All 4 finished unplaced in their previous race
2 of the last 3 were won by a 5 year-old
Nicky Henderson won the prize in 2008 – WHOOPS A DAISY
Paul Webber has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his hurdles here – ALASI
Nicky Henderson has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his hurdles here – WHOOPS A DAISY
In-form Jennie Candlish is only 1 from 6 with her hurdlers here, but does boast a huge +£195 level stakes profit – RARE RUBY
Jockey Dominic Elsworth is 2 from 5 (40%) when riding hurdlers at the track – ALASI

2.45 – John Smith´s Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 3m1f

3 winning favourites in the last 10 years (1 joint)
9 of the last 10 returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
All 10 aged 6 or older – bad news for CARLITO BRIGANTE (5)
8 year-olds have the best recent record, winning 40% of the last 10 runnings
4 of the last 6 ran at Aintree last time out
8 of the last 10 won this on their seasonal reappearance
FAIR ALONG won this race in 2009 & 2010
Philip Hobbs has won this race in 2002, 2009 & 2010 – FAIR ALONG
Jockey Rhys Flint has ridden the last two winners – FAIR ALONG
Philip Hobbs is 3 from 5 (60%) with his hurdlers here – FAIR ALONG
Paul Webber has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his hurdles at the track – CANTLOW
Rhys Flint has a 38% (5 from 13) record when riding hurdlers at Wetherby – FAIR ALONG

3.20 – Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good 3m1f

9 of the last 10 returned 6/1 or SHORTER in the betting
9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 8-10 years-old
80% of the last 10 won this on their seasonal reappearance
7 of the last 10 were placed in their previous race
7 of the last 10 had a Racing Post Rating of 160 or higher
50% of the last 10 were won by an 8 year-old
Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
Past winners have a good record with One Man, Wayward Lad, Celtic Shot, Barton Bank, Ollie Magern and See More Business all winning the race twice – NACARAT
NACARAT won this 12 months ago (has 10lbs more this year)
Donald McCain is 8 from 30 (27%) with his chasers at Wetherby – WEIRD AL
Jockey Keith Mercer is 6 from 27 (22%) when riding chasers here – CHIEF DAN GEORGE
James Reveley is 3 from 11 (27%) when riding over fences at the track – DIAMOND HARRY
 

ASCOT (C4 and ATR)

2.30 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good 2m1f

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
5 of the last 10 were won by an 8 year-old
7 of last 10 winners carried 10-10 or MORE
8 of the last 10 returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
8 of the last 10 finished 4^th or better last time out
6 of the last 10 won this on their seasonal reappearance
Philip Hobbs’ SAFARI JOURNEY won this 12 months ago
Paul Nicholls won this in 2004 and 2005 – TAKEROC
Barry Geraghty is 8 from 18 (44%) over fences at Ascot – ANQUETTA
Richard Johnson rode the winner in 2006 and 2010 – SAFARI JOURNEY
Nicky Henderson has a 35% (9 from 26) record with his chasers here – ANQUETTA
Paul Moloney is 4 from 13 (31%) when riding over fences at Ascot – DARCEYS DANCER

Note: The 2005 & 2006 renewals were run at Lingfield

3.00 – williamhill.com Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m

2 of the last 8 went to the favourite
50% of the last 8 winners returned 4/1 or SHORTER in the betting
5 of the last 8 carried 11-0 or MORE
ALL 8 winners were aged 6 or YOUNGER
Nicky Henderson won this in 2008 – A MEDIA LUZ
Charlie Mann won the race in 2007 – KATIES TUITOR
Paul Nicholls landed the prize in 2006 – BRAMPOUR
Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track – A MEDIA LUZ
Donald McCain is 2 from 7 (29%) with his hurdlers here – DRILL SERGEANT
In-form Evan Williams is 3 from 13 and +£46 with his hurdlers at Ascot – TARKARI
Barry Geraghty has a 37% (11 from 30) record when riding over hurdles here – A MEDIA LUZ
Paul Moloney is 4 from 18 (+£44) on hurdlers here – TARKARI

3.40 – United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 3m

2 of the last 8 went to the favourite
7 of the last 8 were aged 7 or OLDER
7 of the last 8 DIDN’T win last time out
5 of the last 8 won this on their seasonal reappearance
5 of the last 8 winners carried 11-1 or MORE
3 of the last 5 returned double-figure prices
The Pipe team won this in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2010 – GENTLE RANGER and QUILINTON
Eion Griffin’s THE LAST DERBY won this in 2009
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 1 from 29 with his chasers at Ascot – RAZOR ROYALE
David Pipe is 6 from 31 (19%) with his chasers at the track – GENTLE RANGER and QUILINTON
Noel Fehily is 7 from 21 (33%) when getting the leg-up on chasers here – AIR FORCE ONE
Paul Moloney has a 31% record (4 from 13) when riding over fences at the track – FREE WORLD
Barry Geraghty is 8 from 18 (44%) over fences at Ascot – BIDEFORD LEGEND

NEWMARKET (C4 and RUK)

2.05 – Novae Bloodstock Insurance Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,013 CH4 Good 1m

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
6 of the last 10 went to a 3 year-old, including the last 3 renewals
4 of the last 5 winners won their previous race
50% of the last 10 winners ran in a Listed race last time out
Saeed Bin Suroor won this in 2006 and 2010 – SECRECY
Both Bin Suroor winners returned 10/1 in the betting (Godolphin second strings) – SECRECY and SAMURAI SWORD
Mahmood Al Zarooni has a 41% (9 from 22) strike-rate with his 3 year-olds here – ECLIPTIC and SAMURAI SWORD
Clive Brittain is only 1 from 47 with his 3 year-olds at the track – MAALI
Frankie Dettori has a 21% record (21 from 98) when riding 3 year-olds at the track – ECLIPTIC
Roger Charlton has a 26% (5 from 19) record with his older horses here – MAC LOVE
Ryan Moore has a +£49 level stakes profit when riding 4+year-olds here – CONFRONT

3.55 – E B F “Mount Nelson” Montrose Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £12,193 CH4 Good 1m

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years (2001)
8 of the last 10 finished either 1^st or 2^nd last time out
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
3 of the last 10 ran in a Nottingham maiden last time out
3 of the last 10 ran at Newmarket in their previous race
50% won their previous race
This season’s 1,000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting won this race 12 months ago
Mahmood Al Zarooni won the race 12 months ago – TACTIFULLY
Brian Meehan won the race in 2007 – PRETTY PEBBLE
William Haggas won the prize in 2004 & 2001 – DIALA
Mahmood Al Zarooni has a 30% (8 from 27, +£40) record with his 2 year-olds here – TACTIFULLY
Seb Sanders has a 7 from 33 record (21%, +£74) record when riding juveniles at the track – AMTHAL
Dane O’Neill is 0 from 39 when riding 2 year-olds at the course – ESENTEPE
Jimmy Fortune has a +£60 level stakes profit when riding 2 year-olds at HQ – SWINGLAND

*Compare all the latest BestPrice odds by clicking on the race title