Trainer Stats – 10th Nov

Nicholls Heads To Cheltenham In Cracking Form

Andy Newton gave you plenty to shout about from last week’s batch of trainers, most notably the powerful Paul Nicholls team firing in 7 winners at three different meetings on Saturday – See which handlers feature this week, plus there’s a high-profile NH yard that have still not had a winner for over a month now…..

JOHN FERGUSON (4 winners from his last 6 runners, 66% strike-rate): John who? Yes, not many have heard of this Suffolk-based trainer, but with 66% of his last six runners going in then he’s fast making a name for himself. Not being the most well known you might expect some of those recent successes to have returned a fair price – but the biggest-priced winner was only 6/1, but with 7/2, 4/1 and 13/8 successes to back that up then this current excellent run is not to be sniffed at. He tends to use the promising JM Quinlan in the saddle, who takes off a handy 5lbs, so keep that in mind, while 3 of the 4 wins came over hurdles – the other being in a NH Flat contest. In his second season as a trainer, the yard failed to grab a winner last term, but they only had 6 runners all season. However, with 9 successes from just 20 runners already they clearly know their stuff and could be a name to look out for in the coming months/years.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Newcastle (No runners), Uttoxeter (1 from 1, 100%), Cheltenham (0 from 1)

JEREMY SCOTT (6 winners from his last 12 runners, 50% strike-rate): Stable star Gone To Lunch flopped in the Badger Ales Trophy on Saturday, but their Cool Friend ran well to finish second at 7/1 in a decent mares’ hurdle on the same day and they had another 7/1 winner at Exeter on Wednesday – suggesting their limited runners should still very much be respected. With 9 victories this season already then they should have no trouble bettering their best ever tally of last season – 14. They’ve shown a level stakes profit in both of the last two campaigns and are already on target to continue that trend with +£15. Finally, keep an eye out for any NH Flat entries they have – they’ve already bagged 2 wins in that sphere from just 5 runs.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Taunton (0 from 14), Ludlow (0 from 10), Uttoxeter (6 from 24, 25%) & Cheltenham (2 from 11, 18%)

RALPH BECKETT (6 winners from his last 16 runners, 38% strike-rate): The only sole flat handler to make it onto the list this week is the Beckett team. The main turf season may have drawn to a close last Saturday, but there is still plenty of all weather action on the horizon that you can expect some of the leading yards to dip their toe into. Jockey Jim Crowley has been onboard all six of their recent winners and being a yard that are no strangers to the all weather tracks then you can expect them to keep a few on the go over the winter months. Looking at their track stats for the sand courses then the advice is to be slightly wary of their Wolverhampton runners with just 13 winners from 85 runners. Lingfield (20 from 121, 17%) and Kempton (38 from 203, 19%) see slightly better stats, but it’s their Southwell runners that really standout with 10 winners from just 35 runners (29%).   
Up-coming entries and track stats: Kempton (38 from 201, 19%), Lingfield (20 from 121, 17%) & Wolverhampton (13 from 85, 15%)

PAUL NICHOLLS (15 winners from his last 42 runners, 36% strike-rate): The Nicholls camp are already over £250,000 in front of Nicky Henderson in total prize money won, but you can expect that gap to close fast with the Seven Barrows yard showing clear signs they are hitting top gear. Back to Nicholls, they fired in 7 winners at three different tracks on Saturday afternoon to bash the bookies hard and with Mon Parrain being backed off the boards for this weekend’s Paddy Power Gold Cup then the layers will be keen to see that 5 year-old beaten. Add in that a massive 29 of their last 42 runners have finished third or better, then this further backs up how forward their horses are at present. True, the prices are often on the short side, but don’t be put off backing their second strings or if you don’t see Ruby, Daryl or AP riding – young Ryan Mahon has won on two of this last 3 rides for the yard. Their best-ever win tally was in the 2008/09 season with 155 winners and with 43 already then you suspect bettering that, as well as securing another trainers title, is high on their agenda.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Ludlow (3 from 29, 10%), Taunton (56 from 154, 36%) Cheltenham (55 from 373, 15%) & Fontwell (30 from 89, 34%)

JOHN QUINN (5 winners from his last 15 runners, 33% strike-rate): Operates over both codes, but with the jumping action hotting up then expect to see more of his runners over the sticks. With 27 wins on the turf this season is was a fairly average campaign, but they’ve transferred their good form to the sticks with 11 successes already – and considering they only bagged 16 in the whole of last season then things look encouraging for the Yorkshire-based yard. Add in that they only had 32 runners over jumps too then they are currently operating around the 34% mark. Hawk Mountain, who Nick Luck partly owns, got his hurdling career off to a winning start at Sedgefield on Tuesday and although he didn’t beat much he did it in decent fashion and you can expect connections to have a bit of fun with him over the coming months. Of their 5 recent winners, 4 went off as the favourite, so keep an eye on the market or if any money comes for one of theirs, while jockey Dean Pratt’s last 3 rides for the yard read: 1-1-2!
Up-coming entries and track stats: Ludlow (0 from 2), Newcastle (2 from 23, 9%), Wolverhampton (12 from 108, 11%), Uttoxeter (3 from 12, 25%), Wetherby (8 from 47, 17%) & Cheltenham (1 from 21, 5%)

NICKY HENDERSON (7 winners from his last 24 runners, 29% strike-rate): After a slowish start to the new season the Seven Barrows often do very well in November and this year looks like being no different. Their stats are actually a lot better than they look as they’ve had 5 winners on the bounce since Monday. Okay, so one of those was a walkover, but they still had two very decent victories at Lingfield on Tuesday and with the big Cheltenham Open Meeting starting this Friday then they head to Prestbury Park in eye-catching form. Of course, you can expect to see Geraghty on most of theirs, but they also use AP when they can, while Andrew Tinkler and young Jeremiah McGrath are also important members of the team. They’ve broken 100 winners in all of the past three campaigns, with last season’s haul of 153 their best-ever tally. They are current on 28, so have a fair way to go, but with the bulk of their big guns yet to run then you can expect this number to increase daily.   
Up-coming entries and track stats: Ludlow (32 from 87, 37%) Taunton (7 from 33, 21%), Cheltenham (36 from 282, 13%) & Fontwell (9 from 35, 26%)

VICTOR DARTNALL (5 winners from his last 17 runners, 29% strike-rate): Still slightly living off the back of the wins of Exmoor Ranger (12/1) and Shammick Boy (16/1) over the last two weeks, but they fired in two more winners, one at Sandown on Saturday and another at Exeter on Wednesday, to maintain their strike-rate. In terms of jockeys Andrew Glassonbury and Denis O’Regan tend to share the mounts, while thanks to some decent priced winners they are already showing a +£36 level stakes profit from their 40 runners this season. I don’t know about you, but what I do find surprising is that their best-ever winning season was with only 31 successes back in 2007-08, with last term seeing just 26. They currently sit on 8 and you’d expect them to get well into the twenties, with 30 or even 40 realistic targets.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Taunton (11 from 47, 23%), Uttoxeter (9 from 48, 19%) Cheltenham (1 from 25, 4%) & Fontwell (7 from 36%)

EMMA LAVELLE (5 winners from her last 18 runners, 28% strike-rate): A late entry into this week’s list after a 48/1 treble at Exeter on Wednesday and if you add that trio of wins to 12/1 and 14/1 victories last Friday and Saturday then things are certainly looking good at the Lavelle yard. Jockey Jack Doyle has been on 4 of those 5 wins, including all three at Exeter this week and being the stable’s number one, obviously, gets the leg-up on most. That treble took her tally to 11 for the season and now are a third of the way to equalling their best total of 30 win, which they achieved in 2005/06 and last term.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Taunton (6 from 28, 21%), Cheltenham (4 from 42, 10%), Uttoxeter (6 from 30, 20%) & Fontwell (10 from 48, 21%)

OLIVER SHERWOOD (4 winners from his last 15 runners, 27% strike-rate): A 14/1 winner last Friday capped off a run of four wins from just 5 runners that week and despite not finding another winner since they’ve only had a handful of runners. Yes, they’ve had an 8/13 turned over and an 11/4 fav beaten since, but their runners are still worth keeping on the right side of. Leighton Aspell is their main man in the saddle, having ridden all of those recent wins, and with the yard having 10 wins already this season then bettering last terms haul of 24 looks on the cards. Interestingly they’ve also already had 3 NH flat wins from just 10 runners, so there could be a profitable angle there – especially as they are also showing a +£21 level stakes profit in that arena. Looking at their upcoming entries Pacco, Pokerhuntress and Kitchen Loan all have multiple engagements so could be interesting and, finally, keep a lookout for anything they run at Fontwell on Sunday – they currently have a 23% and +£72 record at the figure-of-eight track.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Ludlow (4 from 37, 11%), Cheltenham (0 from 16), Wetherby (0 from 6), Uttoxeter (2 from 38) & Fontwell (14 from 62, 23%)

 

This Week’s Cold Trainer………….

COLIN TIZZARD (33 days and 39 runners without a winner): I know he was last week’s trainer but another 7 days has gone by without a winner for the Tizzard team and being by far the biggest NH name currently on the cold list then I thought it would be more beneficial to flag them up again. Yes, there’s a good chance that being so long without success then better times are not too far away, but with Cheltenham this weekend your betting head should still be wary of their runners. To be fair they’ve had quite a few placed runners (5 from last 16) of late, so there are some encouraging signs, but with stable star Cue Card entered at Prestbury Park on Friday then despite the form of his debut chase win looking rock solid (Michael Flips & Silviniaco Conti both winners since) it’s still worth noting the form of the yard.

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