Saturday TV Trends

Can Mon Parrain Win The Paddy Power?

Did you know only one 5 year-old since 1960 has won the Paddy Power Gold Cup – a stat Paul Nicholls’ favourite, Mon Parrain, will be looking to overcome………..

 

CHELTENHAM – RUK & C4

1.55 – Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 3m3f110y

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 co-fav)
9 of the last 10 aged 9 or YOUNGER
7 of the last 10 carried 10-13 or LESS
All 10 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Ferdy Murphy won the race in 2009 – HENNESSY
Colin Tizzard took the prize in 2008 – HEY BIG SPENDER
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2006 – PROMISING ANSHAN
The Pipe team won the race in 2002 & 2004 – GENTLE RANGER
Nigel Twiston-Davies won the contest in 2003 – BALLYFITZ
Gordon Elliott is 4 from 19 (21%) with his chasers here – CHICAGO GREY
In-form Emma Lavelle is 2 from 9 with her chasers at the track – OUZBECK
Alan King is only 6 from 78 with his chasers at Cheltenham – WEST END ROCKER
Colin Tizzard has a +£57 level stakes profit at the course with his chasers – HEY BIG SPENDER
Joe Tizzard boasts an 18% record (+£22) when riding over fences here – HEY BIG SPENDER

2.35 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £85,425 CH4 Good 2m4f110y

9 of the last 10 were aged between 6-8 years-old
ALL 10 were aged 9 or YOUNGER
8 of the last 10 carried 11-3 or LESS
70% of the last 10 finished 1^st or 2^nd in their previous race
5 of the last 10 won this on their seasonal reappearance
40% of recent winners ran at Cheltenham last time out
4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
Only one winning 5 year-old since 1960 – Bad news for MON PARRAIN
Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – MON PARRAIN, POQUELIN & AERIAL
9 of the last 10 were trained by a UK based handler
The Pipe stable won this in 1987, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004 & 2005 – GREAT ENDEAVOUR
Timmy Murphy rode the winner in 2004 & 2005 – GREAT ENDEAVOUR
Nigel Twiston-Davies won this in 2008 & 2010 – SWINCOMBE ROCK & BILLIE MAGERN
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2003 – AIGLE D’OR, QUANTITATIVEEASING & DAVE’S DREAM
Nicky Henderson is only 5 from 97 with his chasers at the track – AIGLE D’OR, QUANTITATIVEEASING & DAVE’S DREAM
Colin Tizzard has a +£57 level stakes profit at the course with his chasers – OISEAU DE NUIT
Dougie Costello is 5 from 16 (31%) when riding over fences here – NOBLE ALAN
David England is 0 from 26 over fences at the track – SWINCOMBE ROCK
Tom Scudamore is just 3 from 55 over fences at the course – THE GIANT BOLSTER
Robert Thornton is only 3 from 62 when riding over fences here – ARALDUR

3.10 – Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 3m1f110y

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
All 10 aged 9 or YOUNGER
7 of the last 10 went to either a 5 or 6 year-old
9 of the last 10 carried 10-13 or LESS
6 of the last 10 carried 10-6 or LESS
ALL 10 returned 10/1 or SHORTER in the betting
6 of the last 10 won their previous race
3 ran at Aintree last time out
3 ran at Cheltenham last time out
6 of the last 10 had a recent run
Philip Hobbs won this in 2008 – MY SHAMWARI
The Pipe stable won this in 2001, 2003 & 2005 – LAUSTRA BID, RASLAN  & BATTLE GROUP
Jonjo O’Neill won the prize in 2002 – DON’T PUSH IT
Jonjo O’Neill is only 2 from 67 with his hurdlers here – DON’T PUSH IT
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2006 – OSCARGO
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2001 & 2003 – DON’T PUSH IT
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a huge +£119 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the track – PETTIFOUR
Ruby Walsh has a 27% record (+£52) when riding hurdlers here – OSCARGO
Barry Geragthy has a 20% record on hurdlers at the course – FALTERING FULLBACK
Aidan Coleman is only 3 from 50 on hurdlers at Cheltenham – STOW

3.40 – Ultima Business Solutions Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-125) CH4 Good 2m110y

5 of the last 9 runnings went to the favourite
All 9 were aged 6 or YOUNGER
5 of the last 9 carried 11-7 or MORE
8 of the last 9 carried 10-10 or MORE
5 of the last 9 won their previous race
5 of the last 9 had a recent run
The Pipe yard won this in 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 – SHALLOW BAY
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2002, 2003 & 2007 – ALL THE WINDS
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a huge +£119 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the track – WHAT A WARRIOR
Ruby Walsh has a 27% record (+£52) when riding hurdlers here – EDGARDO SOL

 

WETHERBY – RUK & C4

3.25 – totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-130) CH4 Soft 2m110y

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
No winning favourite since 2002
7 of the last 10 were aged 5 years-old
ALL 10 aged 7 or YOUNGER
ALL 10 failed to win their previous race
8 of the last 10 finished unplaced in their last race
9 of the last 10 returned 15/2 or SHORTER in the betting
Richard Guest’s EUROPEAN DREAM won the race in 2008
Ian Williams has a 32% record with his hurdlers here – TOUCH OF IRISH
Richie McGrath is only 3 from 72 when riding over hurdles here – FAVOURS BRAVE
Brian Harding is 0 from 45 over hurdles at the track – BOGSIDE

 

LINGFIELD – ATR & C4

2.15 – Blue Square Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,013 CH4 Standard 1m2f

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite (2 joint)
No winning favourite since 2003
2 of the last 3 went to a 3 year-old
8 of the last 10 failed to win their previous race
5 of the last 10 ran at Newmarket last time out
4 year-olds have the best recent record, winning 3 of the last 10
Clive Brittain was won two of the last three runnings – MAALI
Eddie Ahern rode the winner in 2002 & 2006 – SPRING OF FAME
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 41% record with his 3 year-olds here – HUNTER’S LIGHT
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 56% record with his older horses at the track – SPRING OF FAME
Ed Dunlop is 9 from 29 (31%) with his older horses here – SATWA PEARL
Paul D’Arcy is 5 from 22 with his older horse at the course – NIGHT LILY
Seb Sanders has a 23% record (41 from 180) on 3 year-olds here – MAALI

2.50 – Blue Square Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,013 CH4 Standard 6f

Only 4 previous runnings
1 winning favourite
ALL 4 returned 13/2 or SHORTER in the betting
ALL 4 aged 4 or OLDER
ALL 4 failed to win their previous race
Roger Teal is only 1 from 32 with his 3 year-olds here – COCHABAMBA
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 56% record with his older horses at the track – GLOBAL CITY
Kevin Ryan has a 24% strike-rate with his 4+year-olds here – BREATHLESS KISS
Seb Sanders has a 23% record (41 from 180) on 3 year-olds here – ELSHABAKIYA
Tom Eaves has a 27% record when riding older horses at the track – BREATHLESS KISS
Phillip Makin has a 27% record when riding older horses at the track –  BAJAN TRYST