Trainer Stats – 17th Nov

As we head into another huge weekend of NH action Andy Newton gives you the trainers to note, while there’s a Gold Cup winning handler that’s now  46 days without a winner…….


ANN HAMILTON (3 winners from her last 5 runners, 60% strike-rate): Based up in Northumberland the Hamilton outfit are not exactly on everybody’s radar, but they should be at the moment. With three of their last 5 runners obliging at 11/1, 9/2 and 5/1 then followers will be sitting pretty. Interestingly, all of the three victories came over fences, two in handicap races and the other in a novice chase. You can expect to see their runners at the more northern tracks for obvious reasons; while in terms of stats they are currently 3 wins from 24 runs and will be aiming at bettering their 2009/10 haul of 9 winners, which was their best season so far. Being a small outfit the only downside is that their runners are very thin on the ground, and actually looking ahead they don’t seem to have any going over the next few days. That said, I still thought they were a yard that should be mentioned – you’ll just have to keep an eye out for them next week or so.

EMMA LAVELLE (8 winners from her last 21 runners, 38% strike-rate): The ladies are certainly holding their own this week on the hot trainers’ list and based on the Lavelle team having more runners recently then arguably their figures are even more impressive than the Hamilton yard. In fact a massive 13 of their last 21 runners have finished third or better, but despite their current good form not much of a secret now the bookmakers have still let some of their recent winners go off at hefty prices – 12/1,14/1, 20/1 and 11/1 winners are just a few examples. Jockey Jack Doyle is their main man in the plate and after an up and down past few seasons he’s really starting to look a lot more polished in the saddle and I suspect it won’t be long before some of the bigger yards are touting for his services – he’s been on all bar 2 of their recent 8 winners.  So far this campaign they are operating on a +£53 level stakes profit with 14 winners from their 73 runners. Last season and 2007/08 were their best-ever winning campaigns with 30 successes, so you expect them to have that number as a firm target and being almost 50% of the way there then it will be a brave man to bet against them achieving it.
Up-coming entries and track stats: (Wincanton (8 from 40, 20%), Hereford (1 from 25, 4%), Ascot (6 from 54, 11%), Huntingdon (8 from 50, 16%), Haydock (1 from 8, 13%) & Exeter (12 from 58, 21%)

PAUL NICHOLLS (15 winners from his last 52 runners, 29% strike-rate):  You can expect to see the champion trainer on this list for much of the season and although this is going to be no secret from punters up and down the country I think knowing what kind of form the biggest yard in the UK are in can be a huge asset in your punting armoury. A bit like Hannon on the flat, who has plenty of runners, it shouldn’t be underestimated how hard it is to maintain a high strike-rate as with the huge volume of runners each day/week it only takes 2 or 3 days without a winner to see them drop off the list.  Anyway, six winners at the Cheltenham Open meeting was another clear indication that their main stars are currently running at the top of their game and with the big meetings coming thick and fast over the next six weeks then it could be happy times for punters. Kauto Star (Haydock) and Master Minded (Ascot) are both in action this Saturday, with Walsh heading north and Jacobs south to take the respective rides. Let’s just hope they both show their old sparkle and bounce back from poor runs last time out – racing needs its superstars!  They’ve already hit 50 winners for the season from 176 runners and have netting over £580,000 in total prize money. Away from these two big meetings it could pay to keep their runners at Wincanton and Exeter on your side too as these are two tracks the Dicheat yard have fantastic strike-rates.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Wincanton (52 from 195, 27%), Hereford (9 from 45, 20%), Ascot (19 from 96, 20%), Haydock (8 from 37, 22%), Exeter (39 from 121, 32%) & Towcester (1 from 1, 100%)

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NICKY HENDERSON (10 winners from his last 36 runners, 28% strike-rate): With 31 winners so far the Seven Barrows team are hot on the heels of Paul Nicholls, but they will need to start firing in some big Saturday winners soon if they want to see the prize money gap between the two close. Henderson is currently on £230,000 total prize money, which is around £350,000 adrift of the champion trainer. However, a win for Long Run in Saturday’s Betfair Chase will make a significant dent into that tally, and if he can add the King George over Christmas then the trainers’ championship race could be a lot tighter come the New Year. Surprisingly, the Henderson team only had one winner at last week’s Open Meeting (Tanks For That), but they had 5 other placed runners and with a slight change of fortune in the coming weeks you can expect them to at least maintain their current excellent strike-rate. Looking ahead there are plenty of tracks they have excellent strike-rates at over the next 4-5 days, but with Long Run heading to Haydock then you’ll notice that they haven’t had the best of luck at the Merseyside track with just 5 wins from their last 48 runners – and let’s not forget the Gold Cup winner flopped first time out in the Paddy Power 12 months ago.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Wincanton (9 from 57, 16%), Hereford (12 from 35, 34%), Haydock (5 from 48, 10%), Ascot (36 from 120, 30%), Huntingdon (34 from 98, 35%), Exeter (6 from 20, 30%) & Towcester (13 from 45, 29%)

RICHARD HANNON (7 winners from his last 26 runners, 27% strike-rate): The turf season might be over, but the Hannon stable are keeping a few of theirs on the go on the all weather and it could pay to keep an eye out for their runners, especially at Wolverhampton where they have a 21% strike-rate. Another success at Lingfield this midweek cements their current record, while with 54 AW wins so far this season from 246 starts they are currently operating around the 22% mark on the sand surfaces. With Richard Hughes this will be a great opportunity for the up-and-coming Kieran O’Neill to get plenty of rides for this powerful team, while they’ve also been using Jim Crowley.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Kempton (114 from 791, 14%), Wolverhampton (29 from 136, 21%) & Lingfield (77 from 510, 15%)

RALPH BECKETT (4 winners from his last 16 runners, 25% strike-rate):
The first of the flat handlers to make it onto the list this week and despite the turf action being over you can expect to see the Beckett team have some presence at the all weather tracks over the coming months. That said, their last winner was actually on the green stuff back on November 5th, so their current excellent strike-rate is a little bit reliant on winners they had a while ago. With that in mind a small word of caution is advised, but to be fair to the yard of their last 10 all weather runners, six went off unfancied at double-figure prices. They’ve had 15 AW wins from 72 runners so far in 2011, but managed 25 from 117 runners the year before, so based on that it does suggest we can expect to see more runners and more winners in the closing 6 weeks of the year.
Up-coming entries and track stats: Kempton (38 from 205, 19%), Wolverhampton (13 from 85, 15%) & Lingfield (20 from 122, 16%)

JONJO O’NEILL (4 winners from his last 22 runners, 18% strike-rate): One of the big gun yards, but unlike Nicholls, Henderson and Pipe the O’Neill team can have real dips in form over the season. Only on Saturday they were on the Racing Post cold trainers’ list after a poor start to November, but with a Cheltenham winner on Saturday, another on Monday and a double at Folkestone on Tuesday then now could be the time to support their runners. They are very much a yard that need to be followed when the signs are there (obvious, I know), but with their huge dips too this is even more important if you want to profit from the Jonjo yard. The champ has been on three of their four recent winners and with AP continuing to ride at the top of his game then this is, of course, a further positive for the yard. They’ve already bagged 51 winners this season, and will be hoping to top the 100 – something they fell 6 short of doing last season but have achieved in 7 of the last 11 campaigns. Like a lot of the big yards you will go poor very quickly if you simple back all their runners blind – the O’Neill camp have only shown a level stakes profit for the season once since 1988-89!
Up-coming entries and track stats: Market Rasen (35 from 190, 18%), Hereford (14 from 106, 13%), Wincanton (6 from 31, 19%), Ascot (5 from 40, 13%), Haydock (4 from 54, 7%), Huntingdon (16 from 133, 12%), Wolverhampton (4 from 16, 25%), Towcester (28 from 130, 22%) & Exeter (15 from 114, 13%).



This Week’s Cold Trainer……………..

KIM BAILEY (46 day and 28 runners without a win): The Charlie Longsdon team were close to being on here this week, but a last ditch winner on Wednesday saved them. I’d still, however, be very wary of their runners as before that victory they were 19 days and 27 runners without a win – and that’s a long time for a yard that’s been firing in the winners consistently for almost a year. Anyway, onto the Bailey stable, who are now well into their second month without a victory, from 28 runners. Yes, they don’t have a string like the one that included Gold Cup winner Master Oats and Champion Hurdle hero Alderbrook, but they are still an average size outfit and this bad run should be noted. It’s hard to see the good times on the 90’s coming back, but you never know and I guess Sir Henry Cecil proved the doubters wrong. So far this season they’ve netted 8 wins, from 77 runners, but unless things pick up it’s looking a tall order if they want to beat last season’s tally of 38 – their best since the 1998/99 campaign. That said, one positive is that they did achieve a £54 level stakes profit with their runners last season, and despite this current lean spell are actually +£17 this term.


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