Saturday TV Trends

Nicholls Eyes His Fourth Hennessy

Can Paul Nicholls land his fourth Hennessy Gold Cup this Saturday? We look at all the TV races from a trends & stats angle………

NEWBURY (RUK & C4)

2.05 – Sportingbet Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Feilden Hurdle) (Listed) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 Good To Soft 2m110y

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 joint)
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
9 of the last 10 were aged 6 or YOUNGER
8 of the last 10 had a previous run that season
7 of the last 10 finished third or better last time out
No winner aged older than 7 years-old in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 carried 11-0 or LESS
Nicky Henderson won this in 2001, 2006 & 2009 – TITAN DE SARTI
Tim Vaughan won the race in 2008 – FIRST FANDANGO
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers here – TITAN DE SARTI
Paul Nicholls has a 23% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track – ROCK ON RUBY
Tim Vaughan is 2 from 7 with his hurdlers at Newbury – FIRST FANDANGO
Tom Scudamore is 0 from 39 when riding over hurdles at the track – NON DOM
Richard Johnson has a +£59 level stakes profit when riding over hurdlers here – DREAM FUNCTION
Ruby Walsh has a 28% record when riding hurdlers at the course – ROCK ON RUBY

 
2.35 – Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 3m110y

7 favourites have won in the last 10 years
5 of the last 10 returned odds-on
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or YOUNGER
7 of the last 10 won this on their seasonal reappearance
5 of the last 10 won their last race
7 of the last 10 ran at either Aintree or Cheltenham last time out
4 of the last 10 went to a previous winner of the race – BIG BUCK’S
BIG BUCK’S has won the last 2 renewals
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his hurdlers here – BIG BUCK’S
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 2 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track – PETTIFOUR
Ruby Walsh has a 28% record when riding over hurdles here – BIG BUCK’S

3.10 – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £85,425 CH4 Good 3m2f110y

All of the last 10 winners were trained by a UK based handler
ALL of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or YOUNGER
8 of the last 10 carried 10-12 or MORE
50% of the last 10 winners had won their previous race
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
40% had their previous race at Cheltenham
3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
Paul Nicholls has won this in 2003, 2007 and 2009 – AITEEN THIRTYTHREE, NEPTUNE COLLONGES & MICHEL LE BON
The Pipe stable have won this in 1988, 1991, 2004 and 2008 – GREAT ENDEAVOUR
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2003 & 2009 – AITEEN THIRTYTHREE
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2001 – PLANET OF SOUND, FAIR ALONG & BALTHAZAR KING
Ruby Walsh is 9 from 25 (36%) when riding over fences at Newbury – AITEEN THIRTYTHREE
Robert Thornton is only 1 from 39 over fences here – BLAZING BAILEY
Aidan Coleman is just 1 from 30 over fences at the track – BESHABAR
Charlie Longsdon is 3 from 10 with his chasers here – QHILIMAR

 
3.45 – Sportingbet Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 Good 2m4f

Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years (1 joint)
9 of the last 10 carried 11-3 or LESS
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or OLDER
A 7 or 8 year-old has won 6 of the last 10 renewals
All 10 recent winners returned 14/1 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 10 ran at Cheltenham last time out
3 of the last 10 won their previous race
60% returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
Colin Tizzard has won the last 2 renewals – COUP ROYALE
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2008 – FORZY ORIGNY & OSRIC
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2004 – SAFARI JOURNEY & CHANCE DU ROY
Nigel Twiston-Davies won the prize in 2003 – CRESENT ISLAND
The Pipe yard won the race in 2001 & 2002 – QULINTON & CONSIGLIERE
Nicky Henderson is 15 from 70 (21%) with his chasers at the track – FORZY ORIGNY & OSRIC
Paul Nichols has a 31% strike-rate (26 from 83) over fences here – FISTRAL BEACH
Ruby Walsh is 9 from 25 (36%) when riding over fences at Newbury – FISTRAL BEACH
Barry Geraghty is 10 from 39 (26%) when riding over fences here – FORZY ORIGNY
Robert Thornton is only 1 from 39 over fences here – HECTOR’S CHOICE
Aidan Coleman is just 1 from 30 over fences at the track – COUP ROYALE

NEWCASTLE (ATR & C4)

2.20 – Stanjames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £58,521 CH4 Good 2m

5 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 joint)
2 winners returned 25/1 in the last 10 years
ALL 10 finished either first or second in their previous race
7 of the last 10 won their last race
Donald McCain and Jason Maguire won the race 12 months ago – OVERTURN
Nicky Henderson has won the race in 2001 and 2008 – BINOCULAR
Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race
Nicky Henderson is 1 from 2 (50%) with his hurdlers at the track – BINOCULAR
AP McCoy is 2 from 5 (40%) when riding over hurdles t Newcastle – BINOCULAR

3.30 – At The Races Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 3m

2 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings (1 joint)
5 of the last 8 carried 10-12 or LESS
All 8 recent winners didn’t win their last race
6 of the last 8 were unplaced in their previous race
6 of the last 8 already had a run that season
No real age trend with 5,7,8,9,10 and 12 year-olds all winning in the last 8 years
Keith Reveley is 7 from 20 (35%) with his chasers here – CATEGORICAL
James Reveley is 9 from 34 (26%) when riding over fences here – CATEGORICAL
Ferdy Murphy is only 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track – THE HOLLINWELL

Note: % and strike-rates correct before racing on Friday