Sat TV Trends – 3rd Dec 2011

Will Nicholls Make It Nine Tingle Creeks?

Can Paul Nicholls land the Tingle Creek for a seventh year on the spin? See all the trends ahead of Saturday’s TV races………

 

SANDOWN (RUK & C4)

 
1.55 – Markel Insurance Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m

5 of the last 9 favourites won (1 joint)
ALL 9 recent winners returned 7/2 or SHORTER in the betting
8 of the last 9 were aged 6 or YOUNGER
The last 5 winners were aged 5 or YOUNGER
7 of the last 9 won their previous race
8 of the last 9 had a previous run that season
4 of the last 9 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Paul Nicholls won this in 2003 & 2007 – AL FEROF
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2001 – ERADICATE
Paul Nicholls has a 34% (22 FROM 65) record with his chasers at the track – AL FEROF
Nicky Henderson is 7 from 27 (26%) with his chasers at Sandown – ERADICATE
Gary Moore is just 1 from 24 with his chasers at the track – MEGASTAR
Evan Williams is 0 from 13 with his runners over fences here – LANCETTO
Ruby Walsh has a 45% record when riding over fences here – AL FEROF
Noel Fehily is 5 from 13 (38%) when riding over fences at the course – FOR NON STOP

 
2.30 – Bavaria Imported Premium Lager Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good 2m110y

2 of the last 9 runnings went to the favourite (1 joint)
7 of the last 9 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 9 were aged 4 years-old
ALL 9 recent winners were aged 7 or YOUNGER
8 of the last 9 carried 10-12 or LESS
6 of the last 9 carried 10-6 or LESS
ALL 9 had a previous race that season
7 of the last 9 winners won their previous race
Nicky Henderson won this in 2009 – GIBB RIVER & RAJDHANI EXPRESS
Dr Richard Newland won the race in 2006 – DENTON
Gary Moore won the race in 2001 & 2005 – VIA GALILEI
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2004 – EDGARDO SOL
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2003 & 2004 – EDGARDO SOL
Gary Moore is only 5 from 82 with his hurdlers at the track – VIA GALILEI
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his hurdlers at the course – EDGARDO SOL
David Pipe has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track – ENFANT DE LUNE
Ruby Walsh has a 23% record when riding over hurdlers here – EDGARDO SOL
Noel Fehily is 0 from 22 when riding over hurdles at Sandown – KATIES TUITOR

3.05 – Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,340 CH4 Good 2m

5 of the last 10 went to the favourite
9 of the last 10 were placed in their previous race
6 of the last 10 won their last race
7 of the last 10 had a previous race that season
All of the last 10 returned 6/1 or SHORTER in the betting
No real age trend with 5, 6, 7,8,9 and 10 year-olds all winning in recent years
Paul Nicholls has won the last 6 renewals and won the race 8 times in all
The Pipe stable have NEVER won this race
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2002, 2006 & 2009
Paul Nicholls has a 34% record with his chasers at the track – KAUTO STONE
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 34 with his chasers here – WISHFULL THINKING
Gary Moore is only 1 from 24 with his runners over fences here – FIX THE RIB
Ruby Walsh has a 45% record when riding over fences at the track – KAUTO STONE
Sam Thomas is 8 from 21 (38%) when riding over fences here – KAUTO STONE
Noel Fehily has a 38% strike-rate over fences here – GAUVAIN
Richard Johnson is only 1 from 31 rides over fences at Sandown – WISHFULL THINKING

3.40 – Otkritie London National (Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-150) CH4 Good 3m5f110y

No winning favourite in the last 7 years
ALL 7 recent winners returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
The last 7 winners were aged 8 or OLDER
The last 5 winners carried 11-0 or MORE
The last 7 winners had a previous run that season
5 of the last 7 were placed last time out
3 of the last 7 won their previous race
6 of the last 7 ran at either Towcester (2), Cheltenham (2) or Wincanton (2) last time out
Paul Nicholls has a 34% record with his chasers at the track –MEANUS DANDY
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 1 from 31 with his chasers here – BALLYFITZ & MAJOR MALARKEY
Ruby Walsh has a 45% record when riding over fences at the track – MEANUS DANDY
Leighton Aspell, who won this race in 2009, has a +£34 level stakes profit with his rides over fences here – PROPHETE DE GUYE

AINTREE (RUK & C4)

2.10 – Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £56,270 CH4 Good To Soft 3m2f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
ALL 10 were aged 7 or OLDER
9 of the last 10 were aged 8 or OLDER
7 of the last 10 carried 10-12 or LESS
3 of the last 10 won last time out
5 of the last 10 finished unplaced last time out
7 of the last 10 had a previous run that season
5 of the last 10 had run over these Grand National fences before
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ HELLO BUD won the race 12 months ago
Irish trainer Dessie Hughes won this in 2008 and 2009 – RARE BOB
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2004, 2006 & 2007 – NICHE MARKET
Alan King has a 23% strike-rate with his chasers here – WEST END ROCKER
David Pipe is just 3 from 36 with his chasers at the track – SWING BILL

3.20 – Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m5f110y

1 winning favourite in the last 6 runnings
The last 4 winners returned a double-figure price
4 of the last 6 carried 10-12 or LESS
5 of the last 6 DIDN’T win their last race
4 of the last 6 had a previous run that season
2 of the last 6 had run over these Grand National fences before
Martin Keighley is 2 from 5 (40%) with his chasers at the track – PILGRIM’S LANE
Sue Smith is just 1 from 25 with her chasers here – HIGH JACK
Jockey Campbell Gillies is 2 from 9 (22%) when riding over fences here – SANTA’S SON
Peter Bowen has a +£18 strike-rate with his chasers at Aintree – NO PANIC & SUN TZU

Sandown % and strike-rates correct before racing on Friday