Sat TV Trends – 17th Dec 2011

Did you know that 5 of the last 8 runnings of the Ladbroke Hurdle were won by a 5 year-old? Andy Newton looks at all Saturday’s TV races……..

 ASCOT (ATR/C4)

1.55 – Shawbrook Bank Graduation Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m5f110y

Only three previous runnings
All three priced 7/2 or SHORTER in the betting
One winning favourite
Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh won the race 12 months ago – AERIAL
All three winners were UNPLACED last time out
2 of the last 3 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Nicky Henderson has 35% strike-rate with his chasers at the track – GIORGIO QUERCUS
Henrietta Knight is 4 from 19 with her chasers at the course – SOIXANTE
Barry Geraghty has a 43% record when riding over fences at Ascot – GIORGIO QUERCUS
Joe Tizzard is 0 from 11 over fences at the track – HELL’S BAY

2.30 – Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 3m1f

7 of the last 10 went to the favourite
6 of the last 10 returned odds on in the betting
BIG BUCK’S has won the last two renewals
The Pipe team won the race in 2002 & 2007
ALL 10 finished third or better last time out
6 of the last 10 won their previous race
50% of the last 10 ran at Newbury last time out
3 of the last 10 ran at Ascot in their previous race
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 1 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track – PETTIFOUR
David Pipe has a £30 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course – DYNASTE

Note: 2009 & 2010 races were run at Newbury, while the 2005 race was held at Chepstow and 2004 running was at Windsor

3.05 – GL Events Owen Brown Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 3m

7 previous runnings
Only 1 winning favourite
The last three winners returned at a double-figure price
ALL 7 were aged between 7 and 9 years-old
5 of the 7 carried 10-12 or LESS
The Pipe stable won the race in 2001, 2003 & 2007 – MASSINI’S MAGUIRE
6 of the last 7 were failed to win their previous race
3 of the last 7 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Martin Keighley is 3 from 4 with his chasers at the track – BENBANE HEAD
Ruby Walsh has a 28% strike-rate with when riding over fences at the track – THE MINACK

Note: the 2004 running was held at Windsor

3.35 – The Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
5 of the last 8 were aged 5 years-old
7 of the last 8 were priced 7/1 or BIGGER in the betting
ALL 8 were aged 7 or YOUNGER
6 of the last 8 carried 10-11 or MORE
5 of the last 8 won their previous race
7 of the last 8 were placed last time out
3 of the last 8 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2002, 2007 & 2008 – RAJDHANI EXPRESS & GIBB RIVER
Dr Richard Newland has a 38% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track – ACT OF KALANISI
Lucy Wadham is 2 from 5 with her hurdlers here – ALARAZI
Nicky Henderson has a 29% record when running hurdlers at the course – RAJDHANI EXPRESS & GIBB RIVER
Barry Geragthy has a huge 38% record when riding over hurdles here – GIBB RIVER
Richard Johnson is only 3 from 48 when riding over hurdles at the track – ALARAZI

HAYDOCK (RUK/C4)

2.10 – Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 Heavy 2m4f

3 of the last 8 runnings were won by the favourite
7 of the last 8 were aged 6 or older
No winner aged older than 8 years-old
7 of the last 8 carried 11-5 or LESS
The last 2 winners returned 11/1 in the betting
ALL 8 failed to win their previous race
5 of the last 8 finished 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
3 of the last 8 ran at Haydock last time out
Alan Swinbank is 3 from 4 with his hurdlers at the track – SIR TANTALLUS HAWK
Donald McCain has a 26% record over hurdles at the course – REINDEER DIPPIN & ACROSS THE BAY
Jason Maguire has a 32% record when riding over hurdles here – ACROSS THE BAY

2.45 – Maxilead Metals Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 Heavy 3m

4 previous runnings
3 of the 4 winners were aged 8 years-old
1 winning favourite
All 4 carried 11-4 or LESS
Donald McCain won the race in 2007 – WYMOTT
3 of the last 4 were UNPLACED last time out
2 of the last 4 ran at Cheltenham last time out
John Wade is 2 from 5 with his chasers here – WHATS UP WOODY
Donald McCain is 8 from 33 with his chasers at the course  – WYMOTT
Venetia Williams is only 2 from 28 with her chasers here – ATOUCHBETWEENACARA
Jason Maguire has a 30% record when riding over fences here – WYMOTT

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