TV Trends: Sat 7th Jan 2012

Paul Nicholls Eyes Another Tolworth Hurdle Win

Can Paul Nicholls add to his excellent Tolworth Hurdle record with Prospect Wells? Andy Newton gives you all the trends that matter….

Sandown (C4 & RUK)

2.05 – 32Red Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £12,512 CH4 Good To Soft 2m

2 of the last 6 runnings went to the favourite
4 of the last 6 winners returned 7/2 or SHORTER in the betting
5 of the last 6 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
4 of the last 6 carried 11-2 or MORE
2 of the last 3 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out
5 of the last 6 FAILED to win their previous race
Paul Nicholls won this in 2004 & 2008 – HOLD FAST
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2004 and 2008 – HOLD FAST
Paul Nicholls has a 33% record with his chasers at the track – HOLD FAST
Nicky Henderson has a 24% record over fences here – TANKS FOR THAT & DAVE’S DREAM
Ruby Walsh is 11 from 26 (42%) when riding over fences here – HOLD FAST
Barry Geraghty has a 29% strike-rate over fences at the track – TANKS FOR THAT
Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell is 0 from 15 over fences here – NOMECHEKI

 
2.35 – 32Red Hurdle Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Tolworth Hurdle Race) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Soft 2m110y

4 of the last 8 runnings went to the favourite
The last 8 winners returned 5/1 or SHORTER in the betting
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
ALL 8 recent winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in their previous race
5 of the last 8 won their previous race
2 of the last 3 ran at Newbury last time out – COLOUR SQUADRON
Paul Nicholls won this in 2003, 2006, 2007 & 2008 – PROSPECT WELLS
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011 – CAPTAIN CONAN
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2007 & 2008 – PROSPECT WELLS
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record (12 from 49) with his hurdlers at the track – PROSPECT WELLS
Nicky Henderson has a 24% strike-rate (20 from 85) with his hurdlers here – CAPTAIN CONAN
Philip Hobbs has a 24% record (11 from 45) with his hurdlers here – COLOUR SQUADRON
Barry Geragthy has a 37% record (10 from 27) when riding over hurdles here – CAPTAIN CONAN

 
3.10 – 32Red.com HBLB Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £31,280 CH4 Good To Soft 3m110y

No winning favourite in the last 6 runnings
The last three renewals were won by a horse aged in double-figures
4 of the last 6 winners carried 11-0 or MORE
5 of the last 6 were aged 8 or OLDER
5 of the last 6 winners finished 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
3 of the last 4 winners ran at Newbury last time out
Victor Dartnall won the race 12 months ago – EXMOOR RANGER
Charlie Longsdon took the prize in 2007 – QHILIMAR
Paul Nicholls has a 33% record with his chasers at the track – NEPTUNE COLLONGES & THE KNOXS
Nicky Henderson has a 24% record over fences here – MASTER OF THE HALL
Charlie Longsdon is 4 from 12 with his chasers here – QHILIMAR
Ruby Walsh is 11 from 26 (42%) when riding over fences here – NEPTUNE COLLONGES
Barry Geraghty has a 29% strike-rate over fences at the track – MASTER OF THE HALL

 
3.45 – 32Red Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) Winner £9,697 CH4 Soft 2m110y

No winning favourite in the last 7 runnings
4 of the last 7 winners returned double-figure prices
ALL 7 recent winners were aged 7 or YOUNGER
5 of the last 7 carried 10-9 or MORE
6 of the last 7 finished 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
The Pipe team won this in 2005 and 2006 – I’M SO LUCKY
Nicky Henderson won the prize in 2002 and 2007 – HIGGY’S RAGAZZO
Venetia Williams won the race in 2003 – CICERON
Nicky Henderson has a 24% strike-rate (20 from 85) with his hurdlers here – HIGGY’S RAGAZZO
David Pipe is 10 from 43 (23%) with his hurdlers here – I’M SO LUCKY
Evan Williams is 0 from 21 with his hurdlers at the track – LUCAINDUBAI
Gary Moore is only 5 from 85 with his hurdlers at the course – HEATHCOTE
Barry Geragthy has a 37% record (10 from 27) when riding over hurdles here – HIGGY’S RAGAZZO
Ruby Walsh is 6 from 26 (23%) when riding over hurdles at the track – ATTAGLANCE

 
Wincanton (C4 & RUK)

 
2.50 – Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-145) CH4 Soft 2m5f

2 of the last 5 went to the favourite
4 of the last 5 returned 6/1 or SHORTER in the betting
ALL 5 recent winners were aged 7 or OLDER
ALL 5 carried 10-13 or MORE
Paul Nicholls won this in 2002 and 2011 – PASCO
4 of the last 5 FAILED to win their last race
Paul Nicholls has a 32% record (19 from 60, +£32) with his chasers at the track – PASCO
Venetia Williams is 9 from 38 (24%) with her chasers at the course – ATOUCHBETWEENACARA

3.25 – Bathwick Tyres Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £6,498 CH4 Soft 2m4f

Only 1 previous running
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record (33 from 118) with his hurdlers at the track – NO LOOSE CHANGE
Philip Hobbs is 24 from 101 (24%, +£37) with his hurdlers here – SO FINE
Venetia Williams is only 2 from 41 with her hurdlers at the track – NOBUNAGA
Tim Vaughan is 7 from 26 (27%) with his hurdlers at the course – GALLOX BRIDGE
Ron Hodges is only 3 from 68 (4%) when running hurdlers here – CANTABILLY
Jack Doyle has a 27% strike-rate when riding over hurdlers at Wincanton – HENRY HOOK
Johnny Farrelly is just 1 from 32 when getting the leg-up on hurdlers here – NUMIDE
  

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