TV Trends: Sat 24th March 2012

Richard Hannon’s Cai Shen has been all the rage for Saturday’s Winter Derby, but does he fit the key race trends?

LINGFIELD (C4/ATR)

2.25 – bluesquare.com Spring Cup (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £22,684 CH4 Standard 7f

3 of the last 9 went to the favourite
All 9 recent winners returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/3
5 of the last 9 won last time out
4 of the last 9 had won at Lingfield before
Only 3 of the last 9 had won over 7f in the past
7 of the last 9 were drawn in stalls 3-8 (inc)
Richard Hannon won the race in 2008 & 2011 – GUSTO & CROWN DEPENDENCY
Tom Dascombe won the race in 2010 – KENNY POWERS
Mark Johnston took the prize in 2007 – BANNOCK
Mark Johnston has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds here – BANNOCK
Tom Dascombe is 10 from 37 (27%) with his 3 year-olds at the track – KENNY POWERS
Andrew Balding has a 21% record at the track with his 3 year-olds – BIG NOTE
Joe Fanning has a 24% record when riding 3 year-olds here – BANNOCK
Ryan Moore is 22 from 96 (23%) when riding 3 year-olds at the track – GUSTO
Jimmy Fortune has a 26% record when riding 3 year-olds here – BIG NOTE

2.55 – Get Your Bet On At Blue Square Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £18,714 CH4 Standard 5f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 years has been 11/2
8 of the last 9 were aged between 4 and 6 years-old
7 of the last 9 had previous winning form at Lingfield
8 of the last 9 had won over 5f in the past
5 of the last 9 came from stalls 1,2 or 3
Kevin Ryan has won three of the last 5 runnings – BAJAN TRYST
Jeremy Gask won the race 12 months ago – MEDICEAN MAN
Tom Dascombe has a 29% record with his older horses at the track – BLUE JACK
Kevin Ryan has a 22% strike-rate with his older horses at the course – BAJAN TRYST
Ryan Moore is 24 from 81 (30%) when riding older horses here – BODERLESCOTT
Phillip Makin is 7 from 29 (24%) when riding 4+year-olds here – BAJAN TRYST
Martin Lane is just 5 from 90 (6%) when riding older horses at the track – NOBLE STORM

3.25 – Blue Square Winter Derby (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £56,710 CH4 Standard 1m2f

8 of the last 10 had previously won over 1m2f
8 of the last 10 ran at Kempton or Lingfield last time out
7 of the last 10 were aged 7 or younger
7 of the last 10 won their previous race
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
6 of the last 10 were previous course winners at Lingfield
50% of the last 10 were won by a 4 year-old
50% of the last 10 went to the favourite
4 of the last 6 runnings went to a 6 year-old
No real draw bias with winners coming from stalls ranging from 1-14 in the last 10 runnings
Richard Hannon won this in 2009 – CAI SHEN
Tom Dascombe has a 29% record with his older horses at the track – JUNOOB
William Haggas is 3 from 10 (30%) with his older horses here – SOORAAH
David Barron is 9 from 27 (33%, +£31) with his older horses at the course – SUITS ME
Ryan Moore is 24 from 81 (30%) when riding older horses at Lingfield – SOORAAH

4.00 – Get Your Bet On At Blue Square Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-100) Winner £10,221 CH4 Standard 1m

Only 1 previous running
Tom Dascombe has a 29% record with his older horses at the track – HUNG PARLIMENT
William Knight is 13 from 49 (27%) with his older horses at the course – TITAN TRIUMPH

NEWBURY (C4/RUK)

2.05 – E B F/Thoroughbred Breeders´ Association Mares´ Novices´ Chase Finale (Handicap) (Listed) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good 2m6f110y

2 of the last 10 runnings went to the favourite
All 10 recent winners were aged between 6 and 8 years-old
9 of the last 10 carried 11-1 or LESS
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
5 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or BIGGER
Seamus Mullins won the race in 2008 – TIME TO THINK
Charlie Mann won the race in 2003 – HOW’S BUSINESS
Only 1 of the last 5 winners had previously won at Newbury
None of the last 5 won their previous race
Venetia Williams is only 2 from 38 with her hurdlers at the track – PEPITE ROSE
Seamus Mullins is 0 from 22 with his hurdlers at the course – CATCH THE RASCAL
Jockey Noel Fehily is 1 from 48 when riding over hurdles here – HOW’S THE BUSINESS

2.40 – EBF Ultima Business Solutions Mares´ “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle Finale (Limited H´cap) (Listed) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m5f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
8 of the last 10 were won by a 6 year-old
The average winning SP over the last 10 runnings is 10/1
8 of the last 10 were placed last time out
6 of the last 10 had previously won over at least this trip
Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 5 runnings – HEATHER ROYAL & NATIVE BEAUTY
Oliver Sherwood won the race in 2008 and 2009 – FLORAFERN
Kevin Bishop won the race in 2002 – WITHY MILLS
Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2003 – CROSS THE FLAGS
Nicky Henderson has a 20% record with his hurdlers here – HEATHER ROYAL & NATIVE BEAUTY
Colin Tizzard has a 25% strike-rate and is +£30 with his hurdlers at the track – QUEEN’S BAY
Oliver Sherwood has a +£36 level stakes profit with his hurdles here – FLORAFERN
Seamus Mullins is 0 from 22 with his hurdlers here – SAPPHIRE ROUGE
Jockey Noel Fehily is just 1 from 48 when riding over hurdles here – KENTFORD GREY LADY
Nick Scholfield is only 1 from 21 when riding over hurdles here – JOSH’S DREAMWAY
 

3.40 – Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £31,280 CH4 Good 3m2f110y

Only 2 previous runnings
The last 2 winners carried 10-0 and 10-1
Paul Nicholls is 28 from 103 (27%, +£19) with his chasers here -MON PARRAIN
Bob Buckler is only 1 from 24 with his chasers at the track – ETHIOPA
Henry Daly is 0 from 24 with his chasers at the course – PEARLYSTEPS
Ruby Walsh is 11 from 36 (31%) when riding over fences here – MON PARRAIN

All trainer and jockey stats correct before racing on Friday

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