Sue Smith has fired in SIX winners since Andy Newton mentioned her last week, so see who’s on his trainers ‘hot list’ this week.
ALAN JARVIS (3 winners from his last 6 runners, 50% strike-rate): As we draw ever nearer to the new flat turf season then this is a yard that is worth keeping an eye on. Okay, so two of their recent winners came over the sticks, but they also had one go in down at Lingfield on the AW and a 33/1 fourth on Weds eve – all this just backs up the general wellbeing across the whole stable. So far they’ve had only 1 flat winner, but they’ve sent just 4 to post, while last season then ended the campaign with a +£92 level stakes profit with their overall flat runners. They do fairly well with their 2 year-olds with 7 of their 20 winners coming with their juveniles, and in terms of their best-ever tally on the level they’ve got 33 to beat, which they notched in 2001. Over jumps they are actually 2-from-2 this season after that couple of wins earlier this month, but with nothing entered over the sticks in the coming months you’ll need to keep an eye on future engagements. As the year progresses the best bit of advice to look out for any flat runners on the turf at Lingfield – they are currently 6 from 25 (24% & +£16) at the Surrey venue.
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Kempton AW (13 from 211, 6%), Lingfield AW (4 from 41, 10%) & Doncaster (3 from 22, 14%)
MIKE MURPHY (3 winners from his last 7 runners, 43% strike-rate): For a small yard they are really doing well at the AW tracks so far this year. They are now 7 from just 22 sent to post, meaning they are firing in the winners at a strike-rate of 32%. The promising Kieran O’Neill gets the bulk of the rides, and has done the steering on two of their 3 recent winners – he could be a jockey to follow this season as he’s often used by the Hannon camp too. This fairly new yard has only been on the go since 2007, and look certs now to better their best total of 12 winners in a season, which they managed back in 2010. It could also pay to know that all their 7 successes this term have been with their older horses, and of the 4 AW tracks they seem to do best at Wolverhampton (8 from 40, 20%), but it’s also worth noting they are +£42 with their runners at Kempton over the last 5 seasons. Looking ahead to the turf season the tracks to keep an eye for any of their runners are Sandown (4 from 19), Newmarket (2 from 9) and Lingfield (Turf) (3 from 9, 33%).
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Kempton AW (11 from 92, 12%, +£42)
JOHN GOSDEN (4 winners from his last 12 runners, 33% strike-rate): One of the ‘big gun’ yards that has not been afraid to send a few to the AW tracks over the past 2-3 months is the Gosden team, and with 13 successes from just 36 runners then it’s certainly been quality over quantity. In fact a monster 32 of their 36 sent to post have finished third or better! Expect to see their stable jockey William Buick on more now that the Dubai season is coming to an end, and with plenty to look forward to both Buick and the yard look set for another huge campaign. Last term they managed 99 winners, while their best-ever total was 113 back in 1992. Of their 99 winners in 2011, 26 came with their 2 year-olds, 15 with their older horses, but the bulk (58) with their 3 year-olds and you can expect this trend to repeat itself once again in 2012. As the season moves on there are plenty of the smaller tracks that if you see any of their runners then you should take note – Newcastle (8 from 29), Pontefract (5 from 17), Ripon (3 from 7), Thirsk (3 from 8), Brighton (5 from 12, 42%).
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Kempton AW (44 from 216, 20%), Lingfield AW (29 from 127, 23%), Wolverhampton AW (20 from 95, 21%) & Doncaster (25 from 114, 22%)
CHRIS GORDON (3 winners from his last 9 runners, 33% strike-rate): Often does well down at Fontwell (+£35 level stakes profit) and backed that up with a double at the figure-of-eight track last Thursday. Despite being mainly a jumping yard, they do have the odd flat runner, and so far on the level in 2012 are 1 from 6. Their jumping figures read a very impressive 21 for the season, 12 better than last term and 5 more than their best-ever tally of 2009-10. Jockey Tom Cannon is the main man in the plate, having ridden all bar one of their recent runners over the sticks (Jack Doyle the other), while despite having an equal 10 winners over both hurdles and fences, you could say they do slightly better with their chasers as those 10 successes came with just 59 runners. Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Kempton AW (2 from 32, 6%), & Ascot (2 from 19, 11%)
ANDREW CROOK (3 winners from his last 9 runners, 33% strike-rate): Based in North Yorkshire this small outfit are having a bit of a purple patch at present and anything they run should be noted. Operating mainly over the sticks the stable have fired in 3 winners since the middle of March from just 9 runners, including a 45/1 double at Sedgefield back on the 13th. Jockey Adam Nicol gets the bulk of the rides, while with 9 successes and a +£22 level stakes profit so far for the season then the yard need just 3 more winners to equal their best-ever tally of 11, which they achieved back in 2001-02. Their recent Southwell winner, Bocamix, could be looking to follow up at Wetherby on Friday.
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Newcastle (2 from 22, 9%), Wolverhampton AW (1 from 12, 8%) & Wetherby (2 from 52, 4%)
MARK JOHNSTON (11 winners from his last 33 runners, 30% strike-rate): Been a regular on this weekly piece for most of the winter and with the flat turf season starting this week there is arguably no better big-gun stable heading into the new campaign in better form. Since we spoke last week they have only sent out another three winners, but they’ve had plenty placed too and with 45 AW successes already this year then that gives them a really good footing before the action on the green stuff kicks in. Incredibly from their 149 runners so far in 2012 a monster 113, or 76%, have finished fourth or better, while for such a big yard it’s equally impressive that they are sitting on a +£20 level stakes profit at the moment too. If there is one tiny word of caution then it’s their record at Doncaster – in the last 5 years they are only 21 from 223 (9%) at Town Moor.
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Wolverhampton AW (91 from 395, 23%), Kempton AW (50 from 338, 15%) Lingfield AW (77 from 374, 21%) & Doncaster (21 from 223, 9%)
SUE SMITH (10 winners from her last 33 runners, 30% strike-rate): With SIX winners since we mentioned her just last week then I just hope you took the hint. Yes, her recent good form is slowly filtering down to the betting public and her last three winners were all sent off favourite. However, we were still rewarded with a 10/1 and two 9/2 winners before that and I’m not sure if her winning run is about to end just yet. The main jockeys to look for are Ryan Mania and Shane Byrne, who have between them been on four of their last 6 successes. This puts them on 40 winners for the season, exactly the same tally as last term, but will do well to better their best-ever total of 74, which they notched in the 2002-03 season.
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Newcastle (17 from 134, 13%) & Wetherby (18 from 183, 10%)
TIM VAUGHAN (6 winners from his last 23 runners, 26% strike-rate): Not had the best of times over the past 2-3 months, but things look like they have taken a turn for the better. They’ve actually had 18 of their last 23 finish fourth or better, but more importantly because of the poor 2-3 months they’ve just had then there is a good chance they will have some very well handicapped horses on their hands to go to war with. Despite that bad run they are still on 93 winners for the season and that is their best-ever, so all-in-all not it’s still not been a bad campaign. Other things to note are that they do better with their hurdlers with 61 of their 93 winners coming over the smaller obstacles, in contrast to 24 over fences, while they also sent out 8 NH Flat winners from 40. Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Ffos Las (20 from 175, 11%), Wetherby (7 from 35, 20%), Stratford (15 from 97, 15%), Uttoxeter (23 from 118, 19%) & Ascot (0 from 7)
CHRIS GRANT (3 winners from his last 12 runners, 25% strike-rate): Known as ‘Rambo’ during his riding days, but since turning his hand to training in 1995-96 he’s not really hit the heights he’d have liked. However, things on that front could be changing. He’s sent out 20 winners so far in 2011-12 over the sticks, meaning this is now clearly his best-ever season, and with 40% of his 216 runners finishing fourth or better too then punters are getting a fair run when backing one of his. They are doing slightly better over hurdles with 12 winners in contrast to 7 over the bigger obstacles, while it’s worth pointing out that 50% of their 8 NH Flat runners have finished third or better, including one winner.
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Newcastle (14 from 90, 16%) & Wetherby (11 from 83, 13%)
WARREN GREATREX (3 winners from his last 12 runners, 25% strike-rate): A 9/1 double across their runners at Stratford and Newbury was a clear indication this yard are worth keeping on the right side of at the moment. They’ve only been in operation since 2009 (this is their third season), and have progressively increased their win tally each year, with so far 20 being their best yet. Jockeys Noel Fehily and Paddy Brennan get the bulk of the rides for the yard, but Choc Thornton was on one of their recent winners too. Looking ahead they have a great record at Stratford (3 from 8), who race on Saturday, but in contrast they will be hoping to improve their Ascot figures with just 1 win from 21 at the Berkshire track in the last 3 seasons. The final thing to note surrounds their NH Flat runners, as of their 20 winners so far 7 have come in this sphere, while 15 of their 32 bumper runners have finished third or better.
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Stratford (3 from 8, 38%) & Ascot (1 from 21, 5%)
EVAN WILLIAMS (10 winners from his last 41 runners, 24% strike-rate): Could the good form of the Evan Williams yard be coming just in time for a Grand National win? Cappa Bleu, Deep Purple and good old State Of Play are all entered for the Merseyside marathon at this stage and with a few winners going in the yard must be extremely happy at the moment. Okay, so they are showing a -£140 level stakes profit if you’d backed all their runners this jumps season, but they have sent out 80 winners, still 10 shy of last season’s total, but they will be pressing hard to try and get as near to the 100 mark as they can. Stable jockey Paul Moloney, who obviously gets most of their rides, is one of the most under-rated jockeys on the circuit, while they also use young Adam Wedge, who has ridden 28 winners this season, a lot too. Also keep an eye on their NH Flat runners as they have sent out 5 winners from just 25 sent to post, while 64% have finished fourth or better. Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Ffos Las 33 from 232, 14%), Stratford (20 from 130, 15%) & Ascot (5 from 35, 14%)
IAN WILLIAMS (5 winners from his last 25 runners, 20% strike-rate): A huge 15 of their last 17 runners have finished fourth or better, including 4 wins in that period too. They are one of the many yards that do equally as well over both codes, with 18 flat successes so far in 2012 and 27 wins over the sticks this term. Leading flat owner Dr Marwan Koukash is also a big supporter of theirs and one of the main reasons why they look set for a big year ahead on the flat. In terms of their AW stats they seem to do best at Southwell (20%) and Lingfield (23%), but looking ahead to Doncaster at the weekend they will be hoping to better their track stats there, being just 3 from 32 (9%).
Track Stats and Up-coming Entries: Ffos Las (2 from 10, 20%), Newcastle (0 from 4), Kempton AW (18 from 109, 17%), Doncaster (3 from 32, 9%)
This Week’s Cold Trainers………………….
TIM EASTERBY (101 days and 46runners without a winner)
PETER BOWEN (59 days and 53 runners without a winner)
GAY KELLEWAY (54 days and 33 runners without a winner)
Click on a trainer’s name to see all their future entries