AINTREE – Day Two Trends….

Can Albertas Run Regain His Melling Chase Crown?

Andy Newton moves onto day two of the Aintree Grand National meeting with his key trends and stats………

2.00 – Tangle Teaser Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 2m110y

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
7 of the last 10 were won by a 5 year-old
7 of the last 10 returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
11 of the last 15 came 1^st or 2^nd last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
Irish-trained horses have won just 2 in the last 36 runnings
AP McCoy rode the winner in 2006 & 2007 – DARLAN
5 of the last 13 ran sixth or better in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Ex-flat horses have landed 7 of the last 9 runnings
Paul Nicholls has an 18% record with his hurdles at the track – PROSPECT WELLS
Tom O’Brien is 8 from 40 (20%) when riding over hurdles here – RIGHT STEP
Ruby Walsh has a 29% record when riding over hurdles here – PROSPECT WELLS
Charlie Mann is 0 from 15 with his hurdles at the course – SEVENTH SKY

2.30 – John Smith´s Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 3m1f

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite
8 of the last 10 were aged 8 or YOUNGER
ALL 10 recent winners returned 7/1 or SHORTER in the betting
5 of the last 7 winners ran in that season’s RSA Chase
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
19 of the last 21 had won over at least 3m before
Nicky Henderson won the prize in 2003 & 2010 – SOLIX
Barry Geraghty rode the winner in 2006 & 2010 – SOLIX
28 of the last  30 had at least two chase wins to their name
Ruby Walsh has a 20% strike-rate when riding over fences at Aintree – SILVINIACO CONTI
Barry Geraghty has a 19% record when riding over fences at Aintree – SOLIX
Martin Keighley is 2 from 6 with his chasers here – CHAMPION COURT

3.05 – John Smith´s Melling Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 2m4f

5 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 joint)
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or OLDER
Horses aged 7 or younger are only 2 from 26
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
18 of the last 21 were previous winners in a Grade One race
4 of the last 6 ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase
3 of the last 10 winners had already won this race in the past
10 of the last 17 had previously finished in the top three in the QM Champion Chase
15 of the last 21 had been at least placed at this meeting previously
ALBERTAS RUN won the prize in 2010
Barry Geraghty rode the winner in 2004 & 2005 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
Barry Geraghty has a 19% record over fences at Aintree – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
Philip Hobbs is just 2 from 25 with his chasers at the track – WISHFULL THINKING
Ferdy Murphy is only 2 from 35 with his chasers at the course – KALAHARI KING
Ruby Walsh has a 20% strike-rate when riding over fences at Aintree – POQUELIN
Barry Geraghty has a 19% record when riding over fences at Aintree – FINIAN’S RAINBOW

3.40 – John Smith´s Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) BBC2 Soft 2m5f110y

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
9 of the last 10 carried 10-12 or LESS
Peter Bowen’s ALWAYS WAINING has won the last two runnings
Peter Bowen has won the race in 2007, 2010 & 2011
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2002 & 2008 – FRANKIE FIGG
8 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
13 of the last 17 winners had raced 7 times that same season
8 of the last 10 were aged 8 or OLDER
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 20/1
Horse aged older than 12 or older are 0-from-91
5 of the last 8 ran in the previous year’s Topham Chase
7 of the last 8 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Peter Bowen has a +£14 level stakes profit with his chasers here – ALWAYS WAINING, RIO GAEL & SUNDAY CITY
Sue Smith is just 1 from 26 with her chasers at the track – DOUGLAS  JULIAN

4.15 – John Smith´s Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) BBC2 Good To Soft 3m110y

Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years
50% of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
ALL 10 winners were aged 7 or YOUNGER
8 of the last 10 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17 of the last 19 winners had run at least 4 times before over hurdles
The last 4 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/1
15 of the last 17 had won at least twice before over hurdles
11 of the last 18 had won over at least 3m before
David Pipe is only 2 from 36 with his hurdlers at the track – POOLE MASTER
Venetia Williams is only 1 from 41 with her hurdlers here – NAGPUR
Lucinda Russell is only 2 from 25 over hurdles, but does boast a +£76 level stake profit – TAP NIGHT
Denis O’Regan is only 1 from 52 when riding over hurdles here – COTTON MILL
Ruby Walsh has a 29% record when riding over hurdles here – HAWKES POINT
Aidan Coleman is just 1 from 35 when riding over hurdles at the track – NAGPUR

4.50 – John Smith´s Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) RUK Good To Soft 2m4f

All 10 winners carried 11-1 or LESS
23 of the last 24 winners ran at least 4 times that same season
7 of the last 9 winners were rated between 128-131
8 of the last 10 were aged 6, 7 or 8 years-old
A Novice has won 5 of the last 6 renewals
7 of the last 15 ran at the Cheltenham Festival that same season
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 4 times in recent years – IT’S A GIMME
Tim Vaughan is 2 from 9 with his hurdles at the track – SKI SUNDAY
David Pipe is only 2 from 36 with his hurdles here – STREET ENTERTAINER & I’M SO LUCKY
Tom O’Brien is 8 from 40 (20%) when riding over hurdles here – ARTHURIAN LEGEND
Ruby Walsh has a 29% record when riding over hurdles here – ROBINSON COLLONGES
Aidan Coleman is just 1 from 35 when riding over hurdles at the track – ART PROFESSOR

5.25 – John Smith´s Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4-6yo) RUK Good To Soft 2m1f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 7 runnings
4 and 5 year-olds have won all 7 recent runnings
3 of the last 4 winners returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 7 years is 13/1
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2006 & 2009
Alan King is 0 from 18 with his bumper horses here
Donald McCain is 0 from 19 with his bumper horses at the track
Jamie Moore is 2 from 3 (67%) when riding NH horses at Aintree

All trainer and jockey stats correct at 12^th April 2012