Well I Declare, 23rd June 2012

Well, I Declare! 23rd June 2012

Hi, everyone and welcome to your Saturday edition of Well, I Declare! Todays sees action planned for Royal Ascot (Day 5), Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar: weather permitting!

SATURDAY 23/06:

Royal Ascot:

Last year’s toteplacepot dividend on Saturday: £262.70

Average toteplacepot dividend for Saturday over the last 10 years: £495.15

2.30: Chesham Stakes: 11 of the last 13 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with five winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.  If I could point you in the way of one horse this week it would probably be Jalaa from Richard Hannon’s stable which has won this race twice in the last four year.  I cannot recall a juvenile race at the meeting in recent years in which Richard held just one entry at the penultimate stage.  Jalaa was an impressive winner of his Leicester maiden and was convinced that the Street Cry colt would be far better on a sound surface; hence the reason for opting for this event rather than the ‘Coventry’ which was on the trainer’s mind after the race.  The ground should have dried out considerably during the week according to local weather forecasters.
‘First three in the betting’ in the last nine years: 6 winners—-8 placed—-15 unplaced.

Starting prices stats in the last nine years:
7/1 or less: 8 winners—-8 placed—-15 unplaced
15/2 or more: 1 winner—-10 placed-—72 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last nine years:
January: 2 winners & 4 places
February: 4 winners & 2 places
March: 1 winner & 8 places
April: No winners & 4 places
May: 2 winners

3.05: Hardwick Stakes: Four favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst ten of the last sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last six winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and the trainer held two options earlier in the week.

3.45: Golden Jubilee Stakes: Thirteen of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten, whilst seven of the last fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.25: Wokingham Handicap: The four-year-olds represent a vintage that has snared seven victories in this contest in the last thirteen years, whilst five-year-olds have won six times during the last fourteen years.  Seven of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners). The last five winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, as have twelve of the last twenty horses to have finished in the frame. Johnny Murtagh has ridden the last winners of the contest (15/2 & 9/2*).

5.00: Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners and the trainer held six options at the penultimate entry stage. Eight of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests. Eight of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winning favourite).

5.35: Queen Alexandra Stakes: Eight of the last ten winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less. Four of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, with another four market leaders finishing in the frame. Paul Nicholls held one entry at the time of writing (American Trilogy) which made for interesting reading.

Ayr:

General stats: Richard Fahey saddled a 1133/1 treble on last year’s Ayr card on the final day of the Royal Ascot meeting via winners returned at 20/1–11/1–7/2. Richard will struggle to equal the achievement this time around with just four possible runners potentially engaged at the time of writing.

Haydock:

General stats: Richard Fahey was also in (27/1) double form at Haydock saddling winners at 7/1 and 5/2.  Barry Hills was also among the winners at 7/2 and 1/4 (9/2 double) whereby son Charlie will be under pressure to beat dad’s effort twelve months on.  Both trainers were well represented at the five-day stage with Charlie seemingly intent on saddling winners with brother Michael already booked aboard several of his raiders.

Lingfield:

General stats: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites scored on last year’s six race card.  The other gold medallists obliged at 5/1 and 12/1.

Newmarket:

General stats: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites scored on last year’s eight race card.  The other winners prevailed at 3/1-13/2-7/1-8/1.

Redcar:

General stats: Three of the eight favourites won on last year‘s card, the other winners having scored at 5/2-3/1-7/1-9/1-12/1.