Stat of the Day: 24th June 2012
A non-runner yesterday, unfortunately, and a change of chair as Matt returns for a Stat of the Day stint.
It’s up to Northumberland today, and a man who has few raiders but a very high strike rate with them. We’ll have a crack at the…
Nigel Twison-Davies has only had five runners at Hexham in recent years. But four of them have won! (The other finished third).
He’s been hitting the target nicely enough in recent days too, so we’ve a right to hope for a good run as long as the horse has conditions in his favour.
N T-D has two entries this afternoon. The first, Moulin de la Croix, runs in the 2.00 and bids to follow up a recent heavy ground success. He’s a short price to do so, but I have reservations about horses running quickly for a second time after a layoff, especially when the first run back was on heavy ground.
So Moulin might win, but he’s too short to be SotD in that context.
The other runner, and the one which does make it as Stat of the Day this afternoon, is Desolait. We’ve heard the case for the trainer; now let me make a case for the horse.
Desolait won his novice hurdle here this time last year on good to soft ground over today’s trip of two miles and half a furlong. So he’s a course and distance winner.
After that, he was stepped up markedly in distance to finish fourth, seventh, and fifth. Each time he was fading at the death. Little wonder then that connections have dropped him back to a three quarters of a mile shorter distance – the distance he’s previously won at – in a winnable contest.
Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride and he is in great form too (four winners from his last nine rides), and the only imponderable is the heavy ground, on which Desolait has yet to race.
I’m taking a chance that he’ll get through that and, if he does, the 7/1 BOG with totesport might look good value. Each way the play.
As always, do…
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