Stat of the Day, 25th June 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 25th June 2012

Back to winning ways yesterday, as Desolait prevailed under an excellent waiting ride from Sam Twiston-Davies at odds of 13/2 (recommended earlier at 7/1 BOG).

Today, I’m using the weather as my guiding light on what is a tricky afternoon’s sport. We’ll head to the Welsh borders and the…

5.00 Chepstow

When the ground is testing on the flat, it often pays to focus on those with form under such conditions above all other considerations. Today, I’m using that as my mantra for a filly who is bidding to carry more weight and a higher official rating to victory than she ever has before.

Moreover, she’s a bit of a perennial placer to boot.

But that’s not the whole Caramelita story. This lass has been in fine form, winning her last race over a soggy six furlongs at Folkestone. That track is seriously quaggy when the going is soft, just like Chepstow, and conditions should be perfect for her this afternoon.

Caramelita’s record in small field (ten runners or fewer) sprints on soft or heavy going is 13221. And her last three runs were all under such conditions, so were of course 221.

It is her first trip to Chepstow, but as I say, there are similarities with Folkestone when the ground is deep. She’s never won off a mark as high as 70 (66 being her previous best); and she’s never carried more than 9-04 to victory (ten stone today).

Despite all the negatives, she must be hard to keep out of the frame, so I’ll take her win and place at 5/1 BOG with Boylesports. They’ll also give you a free bet if you’re opening a new account with them today. (Click the banner below for that).

As always, do…

Click here for the latest odds on the 5.00 Chepstow.