Well I Declare, 29th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 29th June 2012

Hi Everyone and welcome to Friday’s edition of Mal Boyle’s excellent “Well, I Declare!” feature.

Racing is scheduled for Chester, Doncaster, Folkestone, Musselburgh & Newmarket, after Newcastle were forced to call today’s meeting off, following the abandonment of the second half of yesterday’s card due to a sudden deluge. They will hold an inspection at 12 noon today to decide if tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate meeting can take place.

FRIDAY 29/6:

Chester:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

13 races:

Favourite details (14 market leaders): 4 winners–4 placed–10 unplaced

The only odds on favourite obliged at odds of 4/6

11 of the 13 winners were returned at 11/1 or less

The only trainer to saddle two winners was John Quinn (26/1 double)

Mark Johnston, Andrew Balding, Declan Carroll and William Haggas all saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £132.10 (average dividend over the last four years: £386.30)

Saturday: £286.00 (average dividend over the last ten years: £168.11)

Doncaster:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

13 races:

Favourite details (14 market leaders): 5 winners–5 placed–4 unplaced

Three odds on favourites: 1 winner at 8/11–others beaten at 1/2 and 10/11

12 of the 13 winners were returned at 10/1 or less (other winner was a 16/1 chance)

The only trainer to saddle two winners was Richard Hannon (12/1 double)

Tim Easterby was the only trainer to saddle two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £238.70 (average dividend over the last four years: £168.60)

Saturday: £64.70 (average dividend over the last four years: £88.80)

Folkestone:

General stats: Jack Mitchell has already secured two booked rides at Folkestone on Friday and his record at the track in recent years is worth reading.  Jack boasts an LSP figure of ninety-eight points via a 30% strike rate (ratio of 9/23).

Musselburgh:

General stats: Julie Camacho (36% strike rate) and Philip Kirby (27%) have both saddled four winners at the course whereby their runners are worth keeping on the right side, especially as their aggregate LSP figure stands at thirty-three points.  Moviesta (juvenile event on the card) is one to note given that trainer Brian Smart excels with his two-year-old representatives in Edinburgh.

Newcastle: ABANDONED

General stats: Three of Ed Dunlop’s last eight runners had won at the time of writing (three others secured bronze medals) whereby his 5/10 record at Newcastle could be improved still further this week.

Newmarket:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

14 races:

Favourite details: 2 winners–6 placed–6 unplaced

The only odds on favourite was placed at odds of 2/5

12 of the 14 winners scored at odds of 9/1 or less (others scored at 16/1 & 12/1)

Three trainers saddled a double over the two days: David Ivory (59/1)–Richard Hannon (54/1)–Roger Varian (41/1)

Mahmood Al Zarooni and Brian Meehan both saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £133.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £386.79)

Saturday: £165.50 (average dividend over the last ten years: £994.80)

One mile Class 5 handicap scheduled for 5.55: The seven winners to date have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-6/1 to date, whilst fourteen of the twenty-one horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  Two favourites have finished in the frame thus far (no winners).

Six furlong event for maiden juvenile fillies scheduled for 6.30: Six of the last seven winners scored at 25/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-11/2 with a market leader sandwiched somewhere in between.  Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via twelve renewals.  Four market leaders have snared gold to date.

One mile claiming event scheduled for 7.05: Richard Hannon has saddled two of the last four winners. Thirteen of the last fifteen winners carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst twelve of the last sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners).

Class 3 six furlong event scheduled for 8.05: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.  Ralph Beckett (only potentially represented by Moretta Blanche as the five-day stage) has secured three of the last five renewals.  Four clear favourites and one joint market leader have scored via the last thirteen renewals of this Conditions event which is confined to fillies.  Nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Ten furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 8.40: Four-year-olds have ruled this event in recent years, snaring eight of the last 12 renewals (including five of the last seven contests).  Nine of the last twelve winners carried weights of 9-3 or more, whilst six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the last fifteen years (two winners).