Stat of the Day, 30th June 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 30th June 2012

The last day of June and, after a 13/2 advised winner yesterday in Greek War, we are remarkably less than a single point down on what’s felt like a poor month. That is testament to the approach we take here, and why it’s imperative you insist on getting value about your bets.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, value is NOT a price (e.g. 6/1 is better than 6/4). Rather, it is a better than true odds chance of the event occurring (e.g. 11/10 about the even money true chance of a coin toss landing on heads).

We’ll head back to HQ, the scene of yesterday’s winner, to attempt to pull a positive monthly account rabbit from what looked a moderate slight losing month hat, in the…

4.05 Newmarket

By my calculations, SotD is around 0.71 points in the red for the month. As such it was very tempting to select Michelangelo in the opener at Newmarket. He’s clearly the highest rated, and has much the most scope for improvement, and I think he’ll win. At 4/5, I don’t think he’s bad value, but it’s fair to say there’s little scope for upside in that price. Which is a shame from an SotD perspective, if he goes and wins, and the selection doesn’t. 😉

OK, to the last day of the month ‘get out stakes’ pick.

I am a huge fan of the old adage, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. So today, I’m getting straight back on the al Zarooni/Barzalona horse.

Both enhanced their already fine reputations on Newmarket’s July strip yesterday, and they’re now four from seventeen when pairing up, for a profit of 6.5 points. Not stellar, but not at all bad either.

Indeed, on both Newmarket strips (July course and Rowley mile), they’re a more delicious ten wins from 35 runs, and a profit of 33.5 units at SP. Clearly, this is an emerging A Team (al Zarooni is obviously Hannibal, and Barzalona probably Face)…

In any case, they team up with one horse today, the once raced two year old, Quintilian. This son of Cape Cross finished fourth to the very highly regarded The Taj on debut, over six furlongs. He wasn’t given a hard time of it once his winning chance had gone and, in my opinion, should have definitely been third there.

Today he races over an extra furlong which, on breeding, should be right up his street (he’s bred to be a miler through and through).

More will be expected this afternoon and, in a race full of promising newcomers, the experience of that debut run, allied to a decent level of ability can see Quintilian come home in front.

Of the newcomers, perhaps the one most feared is Quintilian’s stablemate (for obvious reasons – it’s bloody annoying when you back the wrong one from the yard!), Blue Wave, who is a beautifully bred son of Raven’s Pass. But the likes of Disclaimer, Inaad and Hoarding are all worth watching with an eye to the future.

[Incidentally, this is a race that Richard Hannon has won five times since 2004. He had Ninjago engaged, but he’s now a non-runner. Worth looking out for, that one.]

Quintilian’s currently 4/1 BOG with bet365 to continue Stat of the Day’s record of every month being a winning one, and win only is the suggestion.

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.05 Newmarket.