Well I Declare, 30th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 30th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 30th June 2012

A busy day today, with six meetings scheduled at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor.

As ever, we’ve Mal Boyle’s stats and trends for all of those cards, as we try to find a nice Saturday winner!



General stats: Donald McCain and William Haggas are two of any number of trainers whose runners perform with distinction on the Roodee, though Sir Mark Prescott’s recent 4/8 ratio catches the eye in no uncertain terms. 

Class 4 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.40: Mick Channon and Mark Johnston have saddled two winners of this event in the last six years with both trainers involved at the five-day stage.

Mixed vintage maiden event over ten furlongs scheduled for 3.10: The biggest priced winner to date via seven renewals was a 7/2 chance during which time, three favourites have won.  Litmus was the only potential raider from the Charlie Hills stable at the penultimate stage, his dad having saddled the winner of the race three times.

Class 2 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.45: Eight winners during the last decade have carried 8-13 or more to success, whilst only one clear market leader (alongside a joint favourite) has prevailed during the study period.

Class 3 five furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests during which time, no favourite has obliged.

Ten furlong claiming event scheduled for 4.50: Although only one favourite has prevailed during the last decade, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 7/1 chance.   Seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 9-1.



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General stats: David Lanigan’s 6/13 figures stand out from the crowd on Town Moor of late.  Sir Henry Cecil and Roger Varian’s runners should also be kept on the right side. 



General stats: Alan Jarvis saddled a 9/1 winner on the Knavesmire a week or two back and his stable looks ready to come into decent form.  Alan’s 30% strike rate at Lingfield is backed up by an LSP figure in excess of twenty points.



General stats: Roger Varian (2/3) and Ed Vaughan (2/5) are other trainers to note alongside Ed Dunlop (see Friday notes), whilst John Gosden’s 29% strike rate is decent enough too. 

Northumberland Plate (Pitman’s Derby) scheduled for 3.20: Statistics for the last decade:

The last nine winners have carried 8-11 or less, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 14/1 and 33/1.  Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals during which time, vintage representatives secured one third (8/24) of the available toteplacepot positions.  At least one four-year-old has finished in the frame in each of the last nine years. Draw details & favourite stats (working backwards from 2011):

14-11-16-21 (19 ran–good to soft–6/1 favourite unplaced)

21-14-4-7 (19 ran–good to firm–3/1 favourite unplaced)

4-2-3-5 (17 ran–soft–13/2 favourite unplaced)

6-12-5-18 (18 ran-soft–4/1 favourite unplaced)

13-4-18-2 (20 ran–heavy–favourite won at odds of 5/1)

16-19-18-5 (20 ran–good to firm–one of the two 9/2 joint favourites finished in the frame)

7-17-11-1 (20 ran–good–7/2 favourite unplaced)

5-7-10-18 (19 ran–soft–5/2 favourite in the frame)

1-2-7-8 (20 ran–good to soft–9/2 favourite unplaced)

9-12-6-2 (16 ran–good to firm–3/1 favourite in the frame)



General stats: I don’t know very much about local (Exning) trainer Clifford Lines though his 2/4 ratio at Newmarket demands plenty of respect.



General stats: Robert Eddery’s 30% strike rate at Windsor via three winners often gets overlooked when racing is staged at the alternative royal venue.

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