Stat of the Day, 9th July 2012

Stat of the Day 09/07

Stat of the Day: 9th July 2012

No play yesterday for SotD as Kirkhammerton was just one of a large number of withdrawals across the programme. So, we’ve kept our powder dry and we’ll use yesterday’s stake on what might seem a speculative punt today!

Monday evenings mean Windsor, so we we’re heading to Royal Berkshire this evening for a Class 4 Handicap for 3 yr olds. Nine runners are set to go to post as we tackle the…

7.10 Windsor

Monday’s racing on the whole is largely uninspiring stuff and today is no exception, but a closer inspection of trainers’ place strike rates gives us an opportunity today.

David Elsworth’s record in handicap races in July from 2010 to today reads: 13 wins from 40 with 6 other horses placed: a win strike rate of  32.5% and a place strike rate of 47.5%, which shows us that he generally has his string in good nick at this time of year. If we look at his record at Windsor specifically over the same period, we see that he has managed to get 13 of 25 runners into the frame for a place strike rate of 52%.

With these figures in mind, we set about finding a likely placer for today and we discover, in true SotD form that mr Elsworth only has the one runner at the track this evening: Monymusk.

Monymusk isn’t the world’s greatest by any stretch of the imagination, but this contest looks wide open and carrying the bottom weight of 8-11 might just tip things in our favour. He did show some signs of ability in a couple of maidens earlier, before running well last time out here at Windsor, before he was badly hampered, ending any chances he might have had that day.

Monymusk is a speculative one today and this is reflected in the current best price of 20/1 BOG with Paddy Power and/or Betfred. I’ve taken 0.5pts E/W at that price, but feel free to wait, come back and…

Click here for the latest odds for the 7.10 Windsor.