Well I Declare, 12th July 2012

Well I Declare 12/07/12

Well I Declare 12/07/12

Well, the weather claimed the latter part of Catterick’s card yesterday and we’ve already lost Warwick from today’s programme. We’ve now got our fingers crossed for the action planned for Newmarket, Doncaster, Epsom and Folkestone. Here’s another reminder of Mal Boyle’s notes for the day.



Newmarket (July):

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

21 races

Favourite details (23 market leaders): 3 winners–11 placed–19 unplaced

Both (Aidan O’Brien trained) odds on favourites were beaten at 8/13 & 5/6

Eighteen of the twenty-one winners were returned at 14/1 or less

Other gold medallists scored at 50/1-25/1-16/1

Sir Michael Stoute led the way with three winners (9/2-4/1-11/4*), with Richard Hannon (25/1 & 2/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (14/1 & 9/1) snaring two apiece.

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Richard Hannon saddled three beaten favourites, whilst Jeremy Noseda and Brian Meehan sent out two beaten market leaders.

Toteplacepot returns:

Thursday: £282.80 (average dividend over the last ten years: £578.98)

Friday: £129.60 (average dividend over the last nine years: £697.68)

Saturday: £5,251.00 (average dividend over the last nine years: £2,365.21)

Group 3 ‘Bahrain Trophy’ scheduled for 1.20:  Five clear favourites and two joint market leader have won during the last fifteen years.  Twelve of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Nine winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last decade.

2YO ‘July Stakes’ scheduled for 2.20: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fifteen years.

Class 3YO handicap over ten furlongs scheduled for 2.25: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those year being returned at 40/1-25/1-11/1-7/1-7/1. Nine of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot dividends during the last fourteen years (two winners).

Group 2 Princess of Wales event scheduled for 3.00: Sir Michael Stoute has won this event five times during the last twelve years and Fiorente was his only option earlier in the week.  Just one favourite has scored in the last fifteen years, whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

Juvenile maiden event over six furlongs for fillies scheduled for 3.35: Five favourites have won this event during the last decade, whilst nine of those winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

3YO Conditions event over a mile scheduled for 4.05: Three of the six favourites has finished in the frame to date (one winner) via five renewals whilst it’s worth casting our minds back to last year when the 5/6 market leader finished last of five.

Five furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 4.40: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst three favourites have won during the last decade.



General stats: Mark Buckley’s Liberty Ship was the only potential stable winner engaged this week at the time of writing, though the course and distance winner has gained all three success on decent ground thus far, whereby I guess the going will play a big part in his possible participation.  If he gives the green light, Mark will be attempting to saddle his fourth Doncaster winner via just nine runners, a ratio which has produced eleven points of level stake profits thus far.



General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s 42% record at Epsom in recent times are partly due to the trainer’s impressive 4/7 figures via his juveniles during the last five years.



General stats: William Knights’ three-year-olds are worth following at this venue given the trainer’s 4/9 ratio with vintage representatives down the years.  Three-year-old Sambirano was William’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week.  The Kyllachy newcomer will presumably start at a reasonable price if offered the green light.



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