Stat of the Day, 14th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 14th July 2012

If yesterday’s SotD was an obvious pick, what wasn’t obvious was that they’d withdraw the horse!. So a non-runner. Today, we’re away to Berkshire, and the…

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3.10 Newbury

Saeed bin Suroor was Godolphin’s original trainer, and it seems some years since he was ‘in form’. But recently the yard has been banging in some winners, and bin Suroor’s record at Newbury is hot hot hot, which contrasts with the weather which is wet wet wet.

Specifically, bin Suroor has saddled nineteen winners from 88 runners (22% strike rate) for a profit of 29.51 points, in the last five years. With five year olds and up, he’s had three winners from eleven runners for 43.38 units profit, and he’s got another big chance today.

The horse in question is ex-Australian sprinter, Soul, who actually finished fourth to Black Caviar in that race at Royal Ascot (the Diamond Jubilee Stakes), beaten a length and a quarter.

That form looks to be the pick of the beasts in here, and he has heavy ground form from Australia too. I’m not going to oversell or over-complicate this. I think he’s the best horse in the race, he has winning six furlong form in heavy ground, he actually gets weight from a few of these, and he comes from a stable in form.

5/2 won’t be for everyone, but in my opinion, Maarek – another heavy ground horse on the upgrade – makes the market here. Without him, Soul would be close to even money. And I think Soul will beat Maarek. Simples. 🙂

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.10 Newbury.

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