Stat of the Day, 17th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 17th July 2012

So Stat of the Day notches a four-timer, and with a nice priced winner too. Flying Pickets was a very strong fancy to make the frame, and I hoped he might be able to win (though was far from confident on that score).

As it turned out, the place was never in doubt, with clear daylight between the first three and the rest. The win though was a very close run thing: just a nose and a short head separating that trio of podium positions.

Under a very strong Willie Twiston-Davies ride (did very well to get the horse in a decent position early too), Flying Pickets did the bizzo at odds of 6/1 (advised at 13/2).

So today, we attempt the nap hand, which is asking rather a lot, especially as I’m heading to one of my nemesis tracks, and the…

4.00 Beverley

I shall be present tomorrow, as my friend Tony Mac is sponsoring the preceding contest, the irishbigracetrends.com handicap. Hence, I thought I’d take a look at the card.

It’s not a lucky track for me, but stats are stats, so forget about my personal punting traumas and focus on the numbers (he says, telling himself!).

The top trainer here is Mark Johnston, with a cracking 25% strike rate from nearly 200 runners, and a profit of 29.93 points. He’s got two runners today, and whilst the one in the 2.30 (Pure Excellence) will have an each way squeak, it’s the other one I’m more interested in.

Moon Trip is the only three year old against older horses in this two mile marathon. At this time of year, three year olds running against older horses get tidy ‘weight for age’ concessions. And, the further the race distance, the better they seem to do.

Specifically, in flat turf handicaps of 1m6f or greater open to 3yo’s and up, horses priced at 8/1 or shorter have broken even at starting price over the last ten years.

One of the shrewdest exponents of this manoeuvre is the aforementioned Mark Johnston, whose 31 runners under such conditions have yielded eleven winners for a profit of 8.61 points and a strike rate of 35.48%.

Moon Trip is not certain to get the trip, being a son of Cape Cross out of a King’s Best mare (both sire and dam sire were milers or thereabouts), but he is almost certain to have an easy lead here.

That’s been advantageous at Beverley over the years, and in receipt of seven pounds and more from his rivals despite having the joint third highest rating, I hope he can at least make the frame.

13/2 is available with both bet365 and William Hill BOG, but as ever, do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.00 Beverley.