Stat of the Day, 20th July 2012

Stat of the Day: 20th July 2012

‘Only’ third yesterday on a horse advised win only with Shesha Bear. A ride that can best be described as ambitious didn’t help, but it’ll be a loser on the score card despite a fair number of you backing it each way.

Today, I’m hitting the ‘randomizer’ button (one of my favourite buttons in truth), as there’s nothing which stands out. So I’ve headed for Sherwood Forest or thereabouts, and the…

5.15 Nottingham

There are eight runners contesting this class 4 handicap over a mile on soft ground, and the one which I’m interested in is a price. A big price. Which means he might well run last!

Stat of the Day

His trainer, Roy Bowring, has a great record at the track, especially with his older horses. In fact, since 2008, his four-year-olds and up at the track have registered twelve wins from 55 runs, for a profit of 66.25 units!

Another eight were placed, and the each way profit from backing these horses amounted to 74.76 points, at SP.

This gives me a bit of confidence to nominate the nine year old (!), West End Lad. His recent form figures of 999 might give a clue to the fact that we could need the help of the emergency services to get him home… but in fact, if we dig a little deeper, there are reasons for a shard of optimism to pierce the dark cloak of uncertainty. (Note to self, leave the poetry to poets, especially early in the morning).

Why such optimism? Well, he’s a course and distance winner. In fact, he’s a FIVE TIMES course and distance winner.

He’s also won on soft ground twice, and at Southwell – which I think rides like soft ground – twice.

And he’s won this year, back in March, from a rating of 77. That was just six runs ago, and he was 33/1 that day. Since then, he’s run a fine third of sixteen off his revised mark of 85. And then, poorer runs of 5th, 9th, 9th, 9th.

The last of those runs was in the Carlisle Bell, a far more competitive race than this, where he was drawn on completely the wrong side.

Back down to a mark of 79, the same as his highest winning rating (achieved as recently as last December), and on his favoured Nottingham strip, I’m happy to put up West End Lad each way, at BOG odds of… 33/1 ???!!!

That price probably won’t last, so do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.15 Nottingham.