Well I Declare, 20th July

Well I Declare 20/07/12

Well I Declare 20/07/12

Good Morning to one and all, today’s programme features action from Ascot, Haydock, Newmarket, Nottingham and Pontefract: weather permitting!

Here’s a reminder of Mal Boyle’s thoughts on the day’s proceedings (as originally posted on Tuesday!)

FRIDAY 20/7:


Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

19 races

Favourite details (19 market leaders): 6 winners–4 placed–9 unplaced

Two odds on favourites: Roger Charlton winner at 4/5 and Sir Michael Stoute trained loser at 10/11.

Fourteen of the nineteen winners were returned at 10/1 or less, eleven gold medallists being sent off at a top price of 11/2.  The other five winners were returned at 20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1.

John Gosden led the way with four winners (20/1-16/1-11/2-15/8*), John securing a 316/1 treble on the Saturday which included his 11/2 ‘King George’ winner Nathaniel.

Quite how one of John’s runners was sent off as a 20/1 winner on the Sunday remains a mystery given his success on the second day of the meeting.

The only other handler to saddle more than one winner during the three days was retired trainer Barry Hills who secured events with 8/1 and 9/2 chances.

Sir Michael Stoute saddled four beaten favourites (10/11-6/5-6/4-11/4) of which just two reached the frame. Saeed Bin Suroor was the only other trainer to saddle more than one market leader (11/10 & 15/8), both horses missing out on toteplacepot positions.

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Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £24.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £712.75)

Saturday: £462.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £710.86)

Sunday: £332.70 (average dividend over the last ten years: £308.46)


Friday details at Ascot:

Juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 2.10: Five of the last twelve favourites have scored whilst twelve of the last fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  The last eleven winners have won at odds of 15/2 or less.

Two mile all aged handicap scheduled for 3.20: Four clear market leaders, one joint and one co favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years.  Just nine of the twenty-two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

One mile Class 3 all aged handicap scheduled for 5.05: Ten of the twelve winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst five market leaders have won via twelve renewals to date. Three of the other seven favourites additionally secured toteplacepot positions.



General stats: It is hardly surprising that seven pound claimer Natasha Eaton has secured a ride at the meeting already, given her 3/6 ratio at Haydock!  National was booked aboard Fleeting Echo in the scheduled 4.50 event early doors on Monday.



General stats: George Baker is amassing a fair size yard now whereby his few runners at Newmarket are worth consideration.  George seemingly puts a great deal of planning into his declarations as his 3/11 ratio at Newmarket confirms.

Ten furlong Class 5 all aged handicap due to be contested at 5.40: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).  Fourteen of the twenty-eight available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 12/1 or more, statistics which include three winners at 16/1–16/1–12/1.

Seven furlong juvenile maiden for fillies scheduled for 6.10:  Five of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two winners. Eight of the last nine winners were returned at 25/1, 25/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 9/1 & 11/2, whilst two other horses have secured toteplacepot positions at 33/1 during the period alongside other outsiders.  Mahmood Al Zarooni comes to the gig on a hat trick and it’s worth noting that the trainer held four options at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 4 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.45: Fifteen of the twenty toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective (three winners).

Five furlong Conditions event scheduled for 7.15: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have scored in the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years.  The last fifteen winners have all been returned in single figures.

Three-year-old maiden event over one mile due to be contested at 8.25:  Six of the eleven favourites have scored to date whilst aside from two 25/1 winners, the biggest priced scorer was returned at 7/2.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.



General stats: Michael Appleby is rapidly making a name for himself and Michael’s 5/14 stats at this venue catch the eye, especially as the trainer has yielded thirty-four points of level stake profits into the bargain. 



General stats: Ralph Beckett has saddled four gold and four silver medallists via his last sixteen runners at the time of writing and with the trainer having saddled five winners from just seventeen representatives at Pontefract in recent times, any horses from the yard offered the green light should be followed.

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