Stat of the Day: 30th July 2012
A nice little tilt on the ‘randomizer’ button yesterday for SotD followers, as 25/1 advised poke Lodgician plugged on for third at a returned SP of 10/1. It did look like a bookie ‘rick’ (when they make a mistake with the odds) and so it proved, with us claiming a little over 6/1 for the place element.
It’s really trappy today, and I was tempted to side with Dermot Weld at Galway (more on that at the bottom) but I’m going to head for the beach, and the…
It’s horses for courses tonight, and a chap who may not be the force he was at the age of eight, but who absolutely loves it round Dunstall Park.
Majuro has run here five times in his career, and his finishing positions are 13111. He won a Class 3 handicap as recently as last season, and his last run – a bold front-running third to a well-handicapped rival, beaten three lengths – shows he’s still in some heart. Today he races in Class 5 company.
The ‘3’ was in a Class 2 six furlong handicap, and the other four 1’s were all plus or minus 100 yards of nine furlongs of this course and distance.
He’s won his last three races here, granted in sellers and claimers, by TEN lengths, SIX lengths and EIGHT lengths (!), so clearly there was no fluke about them.
He’s drawn stall five today, which is ideal if they elect to front run again, and 9/1 BOG looks a cracking each way bet to me. I’m on.
As ever, make sure you get the right price, so…
Click here for the latest odds for the 9.05 Wolverhampton.
Now then, as a bonus ‘stat of the week’ for you, here’s a quick breakdown of when to back Dermot Weld at Galway this week.
The top man at Ballybrit has an incredible record and ended up winning seventeen races at last year’s Festival. But all his runners are not equally well-placed, so when is the right time to take a short price about a Weld runner at Galway?
Quite simply, when they’re not in handicaps. Weld’s handicap runners in recent years have won 18% of the time (perfectly respectable) for a profit of 9.86 units (again, perfectly respectable).
But in non-handicaps, he’s won a ridiculous 43% of the time for 37.64 units!
Specifically, in maidens, Weld is 48% and +26.39; and in National Hunt flat races, he’s a 50% +15.25 record.
Finally, horses having their first public run under rules have won a scarcely believable 55% of the time, for a 15.05 point profit.
As such, I’d be interested in Thunder Mountain (5.00) and Silver Concorde (7.10) tonight, and looking out especially for first time starters from the stable. Enjoy!