Stat of the Day, 31st July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 31st July 2012

Majuro was third at 14/1 yesterday, a lot bigger price than advised, thus highlighting the value of using a Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) bookie.

In truth, we may have been a bit unlucky with ‘just’ a place, as Majuro missed the break quite badly, and then had a number of traffic problems meaning he had to go the long way round from the back. In all, I estimate he lost at least six to eight lengths and yet was beaten a short head and three lengths. Still, a 7/2 place return is not too shabby, and we finish July in rude health.

Today, we’ll go to a familiar well and try to draw more profitable water, in the…

5.10 Beverley

We had a nice winner with this approach the week before last, and today looks like another horse with a chance to bring home the bacon.

The approach is Mark Johnston’s three-year-olds running in all-age handicaps over a trip of a mile and quarter or further. Basically, because they receive hefty weight for age allowances, and are generally fit as fleas and bred for a trip, this group of runners seems to do very well.

Indeed, specifically at Beverley over the last four years, the tactic has paid off with five winners from sixteen runners, and a profit of 8.75 points.

This afternoon, Key Gold attempts to enhance that record. She’s been running very well in three-year-old handicaps since winning her maiden over today’s trip of a mile and a half.

But this is the first time she’s raced against her elders. The significance? Whereas against her own age group, she carries weight directly in alignment with her peers’ ratings, here she gets a tidy allowance of twelve pounds.

Key Gold’s rating of 69 is joint highest in the race, and yet she runs from just four pounds off the  lowest in the race. Although I don’t really believe that a couple of pounds make any difference, it’s certainly fair to say that the best part of a stone is significiant.

Since winning that Class 4 maiden, she’s run well in handicaps and this Class 5 affair should be within her compass.

9/4 BOG is the price, with only a few bookies having shows as I write, so do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.10 Beverley.

p.s. Dermot Weld runs the following in Galway non-handicaps tonight: Big Break (6.10), Storm Lightning (7.10)