Well I Declare, 1st August

Well I Declare, 1st August

A quick recap of Mal’s thoughts for today:

WEDNESDAY 01/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Horses which gained their latest victory at Goodwood, Newmarket (July) and Ascot head the sector where we examine which tracks serve best for the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ meeting.

2.00: Four-year-olds have won six of the last thirteen renewals of this Goodwood Stakes event, notwithstanding the narrow ‘three parts’ defeat of my fancy Seaside Sizzler in last year’s contest at 14/1.  Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

2.35: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around, represented by his Group 2 Superlative Stakes winner (and ‘Coventry’ runner up) Olympic Glory.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed, whilst ten market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.10: The last four favourites of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes have obliged and in defending champion Frankel this time around, we are witnessing one of the hottest favourites ever to tackle a contest at the top level of the sport.  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals but this year’s lone vintage raider Gabrial would surely have to start now to have any chance in receipt of just seven pounds from what might emerge as the greatest horse we have ever seen.  I have seen most of the greats in the flesh thankfully, include Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky and Dancing Brave to name but three, but if Frankel were to remain undefeated (hopefully contesting a Group 1 ten furlong event before his retirement), the Galileo colt could rewrite the history books.  In a nutshell, Aidan O’Brien in not contesting the race which is about all you need to know.  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst twelve of the fifteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.45: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst we still await the first winning favourite since the turn of the Millennium, during which time horses have scored at odds ranging between 5/1 & 14/1, with five of those gold medallists returned in double figures.

4.20: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite (level stake profit of £687.72 to one hundred pound stakes) have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Twelve of the eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.55: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, whilst vintage representatives landed a 1-2-3 result in the contest twelve months ago at odds of 14/1-7/1-22/1 via 59% of the total number of runners.  Five favourites have obliged during the last decade, whilst six of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Leicester:

General stats: Geoff Harker secured a 16/1 double at last year’s corresponding meeting.

Redcar:

General stats: James Given bypassed the Goodwood meeting to decent effect by saddling a 17/2 double at Redcar twelve months ago. 

Perth:

General stats: Perth’s toteplacepot dividend last year of £314.90 was a decent reward given that regular readers of the form at this racecourse can often determine the right horses to include in their permutations.