Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2012

Stat of the Day 02/08

Stat of the Day: 2nd August 2012

It wasn’t really a surprise that we kicked August off with a loss, as our selection was a 20/1 E/W shot! Henry’s Gift opened up at 12/1 on course ( a little elbow room for the traders amongst us) and was eventually sent off at 16/1. He ran his race and only really ran out of steam in the final furlong, eventually finishing 7th of the 9 runners, but beating a couple far more fancied than he was.

Today, we’re on familiar SotD territory: good trainer with a decent course record from a fairly small number of runners, sending out just one horse. The race is a Class 6 Maiden for 3 & 4 yr olds over a mile on good ground. Nine runners are currently set to contest the…

4.45 Nottingham

Our trainer today is the very well-known Luca Cumani, whose record at Nottingham in recent years is pretty good indeed. he doesn’t send hundreds of runners to this track, but the ones sent out tend to go well. 26% of them go on to win here and his place strike rate at Nottingham is an excellent 52%. As is often the case with SotD, we’re not only focusing on his only Nottingham runner today, but it’s also his sole entrant anywhere.

The horse in question is Medici Music, a 50,000 Guinea yearling who made a reasonably impressive impact on debut at Yarmouth 3 weeks ago, finishing second that day. He was just touched off by a 100/1 shot that day who was 6lbs lighter and the ground was probably a little too soft for our selection. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him to improve quite a bit for that run and his breeding suggests he may well be a half-decent horse. His half-brother won 6 races between seven and nine furlongs, including a Group 2 success.

Our jockey today is Kirsty Milczarek, and this is also her only ride of the day. Incidentally, her last 3 rides for Mr Cumani at Nottingham have yielded two winners and a runner-up.

Not all bookmakers have priced this one up yet, but the 11/4 BOG on offer from bet365 for Medici Music looks appealing enough today, so I’m on that, but you really should…

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.45 Nottingham.