Stat of the Day, 4th August 2012
Our trip across the water didn’t prove to be fruitful yesterday, as Raz De Maree never really got involved in the race. Our advised 9/2 odds soon disappeared and the horse was as low as 5/2 in places, but beating the market was as good as it got as our selection finished 5th as 7/2 favourite. he did rally a little towards the end, but it was clearly too little, too late.
I’m already acutely aware that we’ve not started well in August, but those that keep the faith will ultimately be rewarded: hopefully starting today! Today’s SotD is a family affair down in Devon as we tackle a 3m3f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle. Fifteen runners are currently listed to contest the…
4.20 Newton Abbot
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies must absolutely love this Devon track, as his recent strike rate here is 23% over the last to years, generating a level stakes profit of 35pts from just 30 runners. 53% of those runners have made the first three home, so ideal opportunities for E/W punters. If we narrow it down to handicap races, that win ratio improves to 30% with a 42pt profit from just 23 runners, of which 52% were again placed. All this points to an E/W bet in a handicap.
NTD has just the one runner at Newton Abbot today, as Royal Riviera contests this Handicap Hurdle for us. This horse is looking to complete a hat trick after winning at Ffos Las last time out. that race was over 3 miles on particularly heavy ground and he stayed on well that day, so I don’t think he’ll be too inconvenienced by the extended trip, as the ground here is much faster: Good ground is the official verdict.
Royal Riviera’s recent form reads 32311 and he was partnered in all five rides by today’s jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, who himself is no slouch around this track. His record in the last couple of years is 22% winners (generating 22pts profit) and 47% placers from 27 rides, whilst his record in handicaps is 30% winners for +31pts with 48% of rides getting placed.
Obviously, a lot of his rides are trained by Nigel, but impressive stats nonetheless. Royal Riviera is, of course, Sam’s only scheduled ride of the day!
Royal Riviera has inevitably risen in the weights, due to his recent good form and this is reflected in the price. He is currently best priced at 12/1 (non-BOG) with SportingBet, so I’m taking some of that E/W. The current best BOG price is just 9/1, so you might want to wait and…
Click here for the latest odds for the 4.20 Newton Abbot.