Stat of the Day, 8th August 2012
Well, I got it right yesterday and I got it wrong! I highlighted Silvestre de Sousa’s excellent record on horses priced at 6/1 or under when riding at Catterick and yesterday he returned figures of 21611, with 3 winners at SP’s of 1/1, 6/5 and 6/4, all of which were available at much better prices earlier in the day. Sod’s law dictates that we were on the only unplaced mount for SotD, but the overall stat was a good one!
We could do with a winner today, before August’s current deficit gets too large, so we’re going back to Sunbury-on-Thames for a trip around the Polytrack. Our featured race is a Class 4 Apprentice Handicap for horses aged 4yrs and over. The newly laid surface is expected to be on the slow side of Standard, as eight runners go to post to tackle 11 furlongs in the…
Trainer Hans Adielsson has a reasonable record in these 4yrs + handicaps at Kempton with 4 winners and 5 further places from just 25 attempts and he sends just one runner to the track tonight in the shape of Hurricane Spirit, our pick of the day.
Now normally a win ratio of 16% and 36% for the place wouldn’t quite be enough to justify inclusion within SotD, so we turn our attention to the jockey. Our pilot today is Nicole Nordblad and she has the best record at Kempton of all the other jockeys she’ll face today. Nicole hails from Sweden and she’s becoming a rapidly rising star on these shores with some excellent displays. Her own personal record at Kempton is very good indeed for an apprentice: 8 wins and 8 places from 40 rides. Those 8 wins have generated a level stakes profit of some £60.75 at SP: a return of over 150% above stakes.
Hurricane Spirit is also Nicole’s only scheduled ride today, so we should be assured she’ll be giving it her all. As for the horse himself, he’s also no stranger to the winners’ enclosure at Kempton either, having secured 4 victories from just thirteen attempts at the track at decent prices to boot. He clearly goes well here at Kempton and we can excuse a poor run in Sweden last time out. Our selection is currently a best-priced 13/2 BOG with Bet365 and there’s probably plenty enough in that price to take an E/W bet today, if you wanted to go that route. I, however, think that we’ve an excellent chance of putting some profit in the bank and it’ll be 13/2 BOG win only for me, but you can always…
Click here for the latest odds for the 6.00 Kempton.