Stat of the Day, 10th August 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2012

A disappointing run in the sea squall at Brighton yesterday, with Maastricht proving not to be so well treaty-ed, coming in a well enough beaten sixth of thirteen.

It’s ‘Leafy’ for us today, and a possible plot in the…

5.55 Lingfield

There’s something of the randomizer about this one, but equally there are a number of reasons to be optimistic. The horse in question has finished eighth of ten and ninth of thirteen in his last two starts… and, as ever, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Addikt, trained by the wily old Michael Scudamore, won as recently as three starts back, in a Class 6 mile and a quarter handicap. He then ran in a Class 5 seven furlong handicap, and then a Class 5 mile handicap.

This afternoon, he’s back to a Class 6 mile and a quarter handicap. Let’s put some perspective around things.

In class 6 races, Addikt’s form figures are 11881. The 8’s were both at Southwell, a track renowned for being deeper and slower than any of the other all weather tracks. The 111 was recorded at Kempton, a track similar enough (historically) to Lingfield’s own polytrack.

On the distance score, Addikt has won five times, all of them at this ten furlong trip, from just twelve starts. In the last two seasons at ten furlongs, his form is 11281 at the trip.

The surface should, as stated, be ideal, and jockey David Kenny claims five pounds, having already won twice on the beast.

Michael Scudamore’s horses are in perfectly fine form and, whilst the horse will need luck in running with his traditional hold up style, Lingfield is not especially a pace favouring track at this sort of distance. There is potentially a fair amount of pace too – with Taqaat, Always Eager, Edgewater, Top Frock and Welsh Nayber all liking to press on typically – so a reasonable chance of the race being set up for a closer.

12/1 is available BOG with the only bookie offering odds at time of writing (Bet365), and each way is the call, so make sure you…

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.55 Lingfield.