Well I Declare, 9th August

Well I Declare: 9th August

Racing action comes from Brighton, Chepstow, Haydock, Yarmouth & Southwell today and Mal Boyle’s got the inside track on it all for us in his popular “Well, I Declare” feature.

THURSDAY 09/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Brighton’s Thursday card produced three successful favourites twelve months ago and the good news for punters, was that the three gold medallists wrapped up the afternoon.

Chepstow:

General stats: In form trainers such as Mark Johnston (28%) and Andrew Balding (26%) tend to fare well at Chepstow, whilst results for favourite backers are nothing to write home about as a general rule of thumb.

Haydock:

General stats:  Five favourites prevailed via twenty races at this three-day meeting twelve months ago.  John Gosden saddled two winners during the course of the three days, his gold medallists having been sent off at 8/1 and 5/1.

One mile three-year-old handicap scheduled for 3.10: Eight horses have carried 9-7 in the last seven years, snaring three gold medals alongside two silvers (one at 14/1) in the process.  Three of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).  Five renewals have slipped by the since the last market leader prevailed.

Class 4 all aged six furlong handicap due to be contested at 3.40: Horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more have won the last five renewals, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs–most recent renewal listed first):

10-11-8 (10 ran-good)

16-2-17-11 (16 ran-good to soft)

6-8-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-2-13-3 (16 ran-heavy)

13-3-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-13-11 (9 ran-good)

7-12-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-8 (6 ran-heavy)

9-6-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

Class 5 three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 4.10: Seven of the nine winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less.  Six of the nine favourites to date have finished out of the frame, though two market leaders have won to ensure that level stake investors are ‘only’ £312.50 behind to level one hundred pound stakes to date.

Ten furlong class 5 handicap scheduled for 4.40: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have secured fifteen of the last twenty-two available toteplacepot positions, stats which included the last seven winners.  Three favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven of the fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions in the process.

‘Draw factor’ (ten and a half furlongs–most recent renewal listed first):

9-10-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-8-2 (10 ran soft)

14-13-2-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

16-9-6 (13 ran-good)

14-1-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-9-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-7-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-7-14 (14 ran-good)

7-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-1-2 (9 ran-heavy)

14-2-8-5 (18 ran-good)

2-4-10 (11 ran-good)

6-9-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-7-8 (9 ran-good)

Fourteen furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.10: All six winners to date have carried weights of 9-3 or less, whilst successful favourites are conspicuous by their absence following six renewals to date.

Sandown:

General stats: Four of Jeremy Noseda’s last ten runners had won at the time of writing (notwithstanding two silver medallists during the period) and Jeremy’s 30% strike rate here at Sandown stands the closest inspection.

Yarmouth:

General stats: Yes It’s The Boy (scheduled to contest the 3.00 event) was Ed Walker’s only runner on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting impressive 4/7 stats at the track.  Other trainers at Yarmouth to take into consideration are Paul D’Arcy, Roger Varian and Sir Mark Prescott.

Southwell:

General stats: Apart from obvious names such as William Haggas and Mark Johnston to respect, Sylvester Kirk and Jo Hughes are likelier to produce big priced winners at the seaside venue.