Stat of the Day, 15th August 2012
Yay. We’re off the cold list, and in some style. Cats Eyes led from trap to line yesterday, at odds of 5/1. 14/1 was advised, but the non’runners meant there was a 30p rule 4 deduction to bets struck prior to withdrawal of the first of three horses which came out.
In case you don’t know, that means a £1 win bet would have been subject to a 30p cut at the specified odds. In this case, we’d have been paid out for 70p at 14/1, which is £10.50, meaning our winning odds were 19/2 (or 9.5/1 if you prefer). Make sense? Good.
Half a point each way, with the deduction, means we recorded a profit of 6.125 units (I think!), and clawed back most of the monthly deficit.
It’s a familiar theme today, as we bid to claw back the rest of the deficit, up in East Riding, and specifically the…
When Beverley races, the first thing I look at this time of year is to see if Mark Johnston has a middle distance three-year-old racing in a handicap against older horses.
His record in this context is five from eleven in the past four years (45.45%), for a profit of 15.25 points.
And today he has just such a horse, in the shape of Aliante, a three year old filly by Sir Percy.
Aliante is officially rated 65, which makes her the highest rated horse in the race. Or the best horse, to put it another way. It’s wonderful news then that she gets eight pounds from the next best horses in the race, a most generous concession.
She has had six runs this season, the last four on turf. Having run well enough over a trip shy of optimal at Salisbury on the first of those, it’s quite possible she was subsequently bogged down in the mud for the middle two efforts, both on soft ground.
But last time out, dropped in grade, and on much faster ground at around today’s trip, Aliante finished a good two length second to Authora at Yarmouth. She was ridden from well off the pace there, and also lugged in behind one in the last furlong.
Despite that, she came home best of all, and I think the stiff Beverley finish, and fast ground are spot on for her this afternoon.
I would like to see her ridden a bit closer to the pace, and SdS (Silvestre de Sousa) may well do that. There are very few in the field capable of significant improvement, and if Aliante runs to her best, she’ll take some beating.
She’s 3/1 BOG with William Hill, and they’ll give you a free matched bet if you open an account with them today (lovely fellows), and quote promo code F25.
Alternatively… Click here for the latest odds for the 5.25 Beverley.