Well I Declare, 17th August

Well I Declare: 17th August

It’s a case of new, new, new today! Please take care when placing your bets, as we have meetings from Newbury, Newcastle & Newmarket on the same day! The alliteration is continued at Nottingham and there’s also action from Catterick & Kempton for good measure. Here’s your daily reminder of Mal Boyle’s insights on the day’s racing.

FRIDAY 17/08:

Catterick:

General stats: Favourites backers endured a desperate week last year as you might have already gathered!  This meeting was no different because after the first market leader obliged at 5/1, the other gold medallists scored at 28/1-18/1-11/1-10/1-7/1.  Another four figure toteplacepot dividend was declared.  The message is clear (especially with plenty of rain coming down at the time of writing whereby conditions might change again), ease up with your stakes unless you are playing with the opposition’s money. 

Newbury:

General stats: The start of a two-day meeting at which four favourites were successful (just the one on Friday) via sixteen races last year.  Patrick Chamings scored the first of two winners at 9/2 on the Friday prior to his 9/1 gold medallist which opened the Saturday card.  Roger Charlton secured a 41/1 double on the opening day.  Four winners were returned in double figures at 20/1 (Richard Price), 16/1 (Roger Charlton), 11/1 (Sir Michael Stoute) and 11/1 (Denis Coakley).

Class 4 two-year-old maiden event scheduled for 1.50: John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor have each won two of the six renewals to date, whilst all six favourites have finished in the money to date (three winners).

‘Draw factor’ (seven furlongs–latest result first):

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Thirteen furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 2.50: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record four victories during the last decade.  One clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last fourteen years (one non runner–withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst six of the fourteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Listed St Hugh’s Stakes scheduled for 3.25: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (5/2) favourite obliged. Four favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, with seven of the fourteen market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen renewals.

‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs):

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Class 4 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 4.00: Six of the eight winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst five of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (three winners).

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs):

3-6-7 (9 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

8-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

15-5-11 (14 ran-good)

3-6-7 (13 ran-good)

2-6-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-13-16 (15 ran-good to soft)

Newcastle:

General stats: Ed Dunlop held three options for this meeting at the five-day stage, the trainer boasting impressive 5/10 stats during the recent seasons. Just ten points of level stake profits have been realised during the period though looking positively at that scenario, it simply means that Ed’s horses was well fancied before winning their respective events. 

Newmarket:

General stats: Two of the six favourites were successful on the middle day of the meeting last year, though the other four winners were returned at odds of 22/1 (Peter Chapple-Hyam), 20/1 (Noel Quinlan), 10/1 A(Andrew Balding) and 9/1 (David Nicholls).

Nottingham:

General stats: I struggle with one Nottingham fixture during the course of a week, let alone two!  Out of Interest, Tom Queally sent his supporters home happy twelve months ago by riding the last two winners at odds of 5/1 and 3/1 (23/1 double).

Kempton:

General stats: Chevise (5.45 & 6.45) is doubly engaged at the meeting at the time of writing with Steve Woodman having saddled his fair share of winners at the Sunbury circuit, producing seven points of level stake profits in recent times.