Stat of the Day, 20th August 2012

Stat of the day

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2012

No dice yesterday as Rory Boy pulled up, having been sent off at 10/1, against an advised price of 16’s.

Today, we’re up to Thirsk for a sprint handicap, the…

3.00 Thirsk

It’s a typically moderate Monday’s racing but this is at least a half decent and competitive looking handicap over five furlongs.

Our SotD pick today has been nominated on her performances over today’s going. Specifically, she’s won three of her five starts on good ground, and her other win was on quicker still. Her form on slower is patchy, and mostly poor.

Beauty Pageant comes here off the back of four ostensibly disappointing runs, and with form figures of 6075.

However, the 6 was from a race at Wolverhampton, a fairly slow surface, which was also her seasonal debut. The 0 and the 5 (of five!) were both in soft or heavy conditions.

That just leaves us with the 7 to excuse. In truth, it’s a bit hard to explain, aside from the fact that she wasn’t able to get her customary prominent position there.

I’m always prepared to forgive a horse – especially a filly or mare – a bad run, if its overall form under today’s conditions is strong. That is the case with Beauty Pageant.

As well as being a going specialist, she has also won three of her four races over today’s five furlongs, including a course and distance success last summer on good ground.

She has won off a mark as high as 80, and today races off just 77. The break of 45 days ought not to be a problem, as she’s won after thirteen months (!) off the course.

Her draw in stall eleven may also be of assistance, and if she get out of the stalls on terms, she might run a very nice race. She’s currently trading at as big as 10/1 E/W BOG with Paddy Power, but do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.00 Thirsk.