Stat of the Day, 21st August 2012

SotD Update

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2012

Beauty Pageant drifted on course to 11/1 and couldn’t sustain her good early speed, dropping away inside the two furlong pole.

It’s tricky today, and I’m ultimately siding with the…

4.30 Gowran Park

With York kicking off tomorrow, there will be some great action this week, but it’s fair to say that yesterday and today offer very poor fare.

So it is that I’ve found myself digging around the last race at Gowran Park this afternoon, and a race with a seriously lop-sided look to it.

The race – a fillies’ maiden – features an odds on favourite, Power To Please, who was second on her only start… on heavy ground. Now, whilst it’s reasonable to expect her to improve from first run to second, she’s going to encounter massively different turf here, and she might not be so well suited to it.

Obviously, she’s got a good chance but, at the price, I’m happy enough to take one against her. And, in such a shallow race, Azores is close to a place certainty.

She’s run seven times now, and been in the frame on six of those occasions, the exception being last time out when fourth over a mile and three furlongs. There’s every chance she didn’t see out the trip there and, back to nine and a half furlongs – which is probably her optimum distance – she is sure to give the jolly something to think about.

Azores has form on this ground, and the merit of her recent runs is evidenced by the number of winners they’ve produced.

Her last time out effort, when fourth, has been franked by wins from the second, third and sixth horses; her penultimate start has produced six winners, including the horse which beat Azores winning twice since, and the third and fourth both going in too; and in her antipenultimate (or third last if you prefer) race, the winner has also won again, as well as the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh!

In other words, she’s been running in some decent enough races.

Azores is 1.46 for a place on Betfair right now for small money, and she ought to make the frame. She’s 7/2 BOG with Ladbrokes too, and that’s the advice – win only – in a race where she appears to have just one horse to beat.

You could of course roll with the straight forecast of Power To Please to beat Azores as an alternative.

Azores, on the nose at 7/2 BOG, but do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.30 Gowran Park.