Well I Declare, 22nd August

Well I Declare: 22/08/12

Well I Declare: 22/08/12

Today is Day 1 of York’s prestigious Ebor meeting, but there’s also action scheduled for Lingfield (Turf), Kempton (AW) and Newton Abbot (NH): a veritable smorgasbord of racing!



General stats: I don’t like repeating myself in the same column but Darren Egan boasts level stake profits of thirty-five points via a ratio of 3/10 on the Knavesmire. 

2.00: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 whilst we still await the first successful market leader, albeit all three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions:

‘Draw factor’ (five and a half furlongs):

2011: 3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-16-8 (15 ran-good)
2009: 18-13-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

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2.30: Ten of the last twelve winners have been returned at odds of 7/2 or less (six winning favourites), whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years.  Nine of the last ten winners were drawn five or higher.

3.05: Ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years (four winners).

3.40:  Four and five-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last fifteen renewals between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 8-3 in the process.  Seven clear market leaders have won this event during the last fifteen years alongside a joint favourite.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.15: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) whilst five-year-olds come into the race on a hat trick.

4.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals of this event, whilst securing seventeen of the thirty available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less.  Eight of the last fourteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include four winners during the study period.

‘Draw factor’ (ten and a half furlongs):

2011: 4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)
2010: 9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)
2009: 7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)
2007: 14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)
2006: 14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)
2005: 4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)
2004: 8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)
2003: 2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2002: 9-4-2 (9 ran-good)
2001: 16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)
2000: 1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)



General stats: In case you missed the recent news, the Lingfield ‘carpet’ has been rolled up and will be ready to race on again in October.  There are not enough turf details available for me to give an accurate report.  I will keep a special eye on results to report over the coming weeks. 



General stats: For ‘new arrivals’ to this column, I am duty bound to offer Saeed Bin Suroor’s phenomenal 35% strike rate given that he has trained thirty-five winners at the venue during the last five years. 


Newton Abbot:

General stats: Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden eleven winners from just forty-five assignments which is a good ratio for one so young, especially given his LSP figure of thirty-eight points.  On the training front, Gary Brown (4/11) and David Bridgwater (3/8) are alternative options to the infamous pair of Henderson and Nicholls who generally rule the roost via sheer number of winners at Newton Abbot as you might suspect.  

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