Well I Declare, 23rd August

Well I Declare: 23/08/12

Well I Declare: 23/08/12

Today is, of course, Day 2 at York, but there’s plenty of action away from the Knavesmire today, with meetings planned for Bath, Folkestone, Cartmel and Ffos Las. Here’s a quick reminder of Mal Boyle’s thoughts for today.



General stats: Charlie Hills has saddled two winners from just nine opportunities since taking over the reigns towards the back-end of last year.  Marcus Tregoning has runners on Thursday’s card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a 3/11 ratio in recent times which has produced an LSP figure of eight points. 

Premier Yearling Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Five of the last nine favourites have prevailed.

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs):

2011: 19-11-2 (20 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-10-5 (18 ran-good)
2009: 13-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race contested at Newmarket–not applicable
2007: 2-11-6 (20 ran-good)
2006: 11-9-16 (19 ran-soft)
2005: 10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)
2004: 12-17-19 (22 ran-good)
2003: 5-15-13 (22 ran-good)
2002: 17-18-21 (21 ran-good)
2001: 22-20-17(22 ran-good to firm)
2000: 4-10-3 (22 ran-good)
1999: 6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
1998: 11-4-20 (22 ran-good)


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Juvenile Lowther Stakes due to be contested at 2.30: Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been won by horses starting at 15/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the market leaders during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 all aged handicap over one mile scheduled for 3.05: Three and four-year-olds have claimed the last ten renewals between them, with the older horses leading 6-4 during the period.  Favourites have a fair record in this event, given the nature of the contest.  Ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years, statistics which include three winners.

Yorkshire Oaks scheduled for 3.40: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, statistics which include four of the last six contests.  Eight favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, though just two of the other seven market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Galtres Stakes scheduled for 4.15: Three-year-olds have claimed ten of the last fourteen renewals of this event, statistics which include eight of the last eleven. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via the last fourteen renewals.

Seven furlong handicap for fillies scheduled for 4.50: David Barron’s Shesastar won the inaugural race as the 5/1 favourite twelve months ago.  The defending champion was David’s only potential runner in the race earlier in the week.  Richard Fahey saddled the second and third horses last year and Honeymead was Richard’s only option at the time of writing.



General stats: Marcus Tregoning boasts a ratio of 10/35 at Bath during the last five years which is backed up by a (minimal) level stake profit, black figures nonetheless. 



General stats: Frankie Dettori rides this track as well as any other jockey as his recent 6/20 statistics at the course confirms.  Sir Michael Stoute’s 39% record at Folkestone suggests that the trainer will be appealing against the imminent closure of Kent’s only racecourse. 



General stats: Floral Patches (scheduled to contest the mares maiden hurdle event which is set for 7.30) is Brian Ellison’s only potential runner on the card, the trainer having saddled four of his last seven runners at the venue to winning effect. 


Ffos Las:

General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 40% record is a phenomenal ratio given his twenty winners at the venue which only opened its doors to the public three years ago.  Other trainers to have made it pay in recent times are Anthony Honeyball (5/11) and Dr Richard Newland (4/9).  All three trainers held options for the meeting earlier in the week.

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