Stat of the Day, 24th August 2012

Stat of the Day 24/8

It’s changeover time here at SotD, as Matt’s stint comes to an end and I’ll be taking the chair for a while. As is my usual MO, I shall be trying to fly beneath the radar today and avoid the bright lights and massive media presence at York by keeping SotD in South Wales for a Class 2, 6 furlong Handicap on ground that is expected to be Soft (but Good to Soft in places). We’ve picked ourselves an 11-runner race today, which opens up the possibilities of an E/W bet too in the…

3.20 Ffos Las

As soon as we look at the card for this race, we see that Prodigality is a clear favourite at around even money, but I think regardless of whether he wins or not, he offers little value at that price. The price of the other runners, however, further opens the door for our E/W aspirations.

This brings us to trainer Daniel Loughnane, whose record at Ffos Las is very promising indeed with 3 winners and a further 6 places from just 17 runners over the last couple of years. A place strike rate of almost 53% plays right into our plan for the E/W bet. As is often the case here at SotD, Daniel has just one runner at Ffos Las today: First In Command: a very useful, if not top-level sort.

First In Command’s recent formline is excellent, he’s having a very good season indeed. He has competed on 10 occasions since 16th February and his results from that day read 2111223212, a remarkable level of consistency as an E/W chance.

That recent form allied with Daniel Loughnane’s place record at the track is enough for me to be interested in First In Command as an E/W option at double-digit prices. A quick scan of the early market (9.40am) shows that our selection is currently available at 14/1 with both SportingBet & StanJames (non-BOG) and widely available at 12/1 BOG, but you should always…

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.20 Ffos Las.