Well I Declare, 24th August

Well I Declare: 24/08/12

It’s a typically busy Friday today with plenty of action to take in, including meetings at Goodwood, Hamilton, Newcastle and Newmarket alongside Day 3 of York’s Ebor meeting and a rare mixed card at Ffos Las: something for pretty much everyone today.

Here’s what Mal Boyle makes of it all for …

FRIDAY 24/8:

York:

General stats: If John Dunlop’s fortunes are ever going to change this year it is likely to be here at York with the trainer still showing an impressive 28% strike rate via ten winners, gold medallists which have produced forty-nine points of level profit stakes. 

Class 2 mile and a half handicap scheduled for 2.00: Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston have both saddled two winners during the last five years, whilst the last six gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 8-12.  One clear and one joint favourite have won via nine renewals during the last decade, with four winners scoring at odds ranging between 33/1 and 50/1.  That said, four of the last six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Group 2 ‘Gimcrack Stakes’ scheduled for 2.30: Odooj was the only William Haggas declaration at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled two of the last six winners of the race.  It’s worth noting that William was not represented on one occasion during the period, whilst the trainer saddled the 16/1 runner-up in 2009.  Only one favourite has obliged during the last nine years, albeit six of the last winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. Seven of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame during the last decade.

Strensall Stakes scheduled for 3.05: Saeed Bin Suroor has won three of the last five renewals, whilst four of the last eight favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 8/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Nunthorpe Stakes due to be contested at 3.40: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though the other ten market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just three of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.

‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs):

2011: 11-15-7 (15 ran-good to soft)
2010: 11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
2009: 2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race run at Newmarket–not applicable
2007: 13-7-16 (16 ran-good)
2006: 6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)
2005: 8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
2004: 5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)
2003: 2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
2002: 15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)
2001: 4-8-3 (10 ran-good)
2000: 1-14-10 (13 ran-good)
1999: 13-1-3 (16 ran-good)
1998: 2-4-8 (17 ran-firm)

‘Convivial Maiden’ over seven furlongs due to be contested at 4.15: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has secured a toteplacepot position (no winners) in a race which has been revamped in recent years.

‘Draw factor’ (seven furlongs):

2011: 6-4-8 (17 ran-good to soft)
2010: 4-12-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

Six furlong Nursery contest scheduled for 4.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored via ten renewals of this two-year-old handicap.  Four of the last five winners have emerged from stalls ten, eleven and twelve.

Goodwood:

General stats: Elaine Burke has sneaked an entry into Goodwood’s meeting which will escape many people, the trainer having scored with her only runner at the West Sussex venue to date.  Duke Of Aricabeau is scheduled to contest the 7.50 three-year-old Class 5 handicap in an attempt to add to Elaine’s previous 20/1 gold medallist at the track. 

Hamilton:

General stats: Amy Ryan’s 26% strike rate (via eleven winners) is even more impressive when you take the LSP reading of fifty-two points into account!

Newcastle:

General stats: I have talked about Sir Palomides before now and this is the only possible runner for William Haggas at Newcastle, the trainer boasting recent stats of 38% at Gosforth Park.  The Mr Greeley colt might be a winner at rewarding odds if given the green light by the trainer. 

Newmarket:

General stats: The best combined stats (strike rate and level stake profits) going into this week at Newmarket (relating to potentially represented trainers) belong to Mahmood Al Zarooni who boasts respective figures of nineteen and sixty-five. 

Ffos Las:

General stats: This is a mixed meeting which is to be applauded though that said, the card complicates the workload.  On the flat front, William Haggas boasts 5/12 figures, whereas under the NH banner, Anthony Honeyball (5/11) and Nicky Henderson (20/50) lead the way relating to potentially represented trainers on Friday.