Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

Stat of the Day: 28/8

Stat of the Day: 28/8

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

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SotD’s pick yesterday was very disappointing indeed. The race was run at a blistering pace and Cadeaux Pearl was slow away from the stalls, slow during the race and finished slowly too! Our mount eventually trailed home last of all twelve runners and only ever had one horse behind him at any point in the race. I hold my hands up on this one: it really was a poor selection. Scott Dixon runs Sacrosanctus in the 2.50 at Epsom today and it should perform better for him, but I don’t like to revisit the scene of a crime and as such, I’ll look elsewhere. So, we/I need a winner and I’m hoping to make some money on the beach this evening with a course specialist…

6.20 Southwell

This looks a competitive Class 4 handicap and you could make a case for several of the eight runners scheduled to take part in this 1m6f race, but I think I’ve got a slight edge with today’s selection: Shifting Gold.

Shifting Gold is somewhat of a Southwell specialist with a record of 4 wins and 6 places from just 16 races, whilst his record over today’s trip reads 313211, ideal for an E/W bet if we can get a decent price. Our selection is trained by Kevin Ryan, who also has a good record with his other horses here at Southwell with a win strike rate of 31% (+43pts @ SP) and a place strike rate of 50% from a decent sample size of 110 entrants over the last two years. Amy Ryan rides many of these horses for Kevin, helping herself to 22 placed finished from 51 attempts and she takes the ride once again today. She has actually ridden Shifting Gold eleven times at this track, recording three wins and six other places from those races, so she obviously knows how to get a tune out of this one.

One other interesting aside is that Shifting Gold is out of Night Shift whose offspring boast a 54% place strike rate here at Southwell. The place strike rate stats for horse, jockey, trainer and sire allied to the current 10/1 BOG on offer from BoyleSports makes this an attractive E/W bet for me, but you can always wait and then…

Click here for the latest odds for the 6.20 Southwell.

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