Stat of the Day, 30th August 2012

Stat of the Day 30/08

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2012

We can argue until we’re blue in the face about the subjective issue of whether a selection represents good value or not, but we can’t legislate for horses being taken out of a race by another faller. Allerford Jack was travelling really well yesterday and seemed to have a very good chance of winning before Magic Marmalade jumped to the right and fell right in front of our selection who then had nowhere to go. These, I suppose, are the risks of jump racing.

So, it’s back to the flat today and what might prove to be a bit of a slog for some of the eight runners contesting the Class 4 Scottish Trophy Handicap. The trip is 9 furlongs and the going is decidedly heavy, after a 7am inspection finally gave the go-ahead for the…

3.40 Hamilton

I’m Super Too is today’s selection: having won this corresponding race last year. This horse’s overall record is relatively average in comparison to most SotD picks with just 4 wins and 8 places from 26 outings, but this horse really seems to come alive here at Hamilton, where he has recorded all four of those victories. In fact, his complete formline here reads 1511142 with two of those victories coming over today’s trip of 9 furlongs (the other two were over a mile). The heavy ground shouldn’t inconvenience him either, as he was 2nd last time out here in similar conditions some six weeks ago. He was just a length behind Double Cee that day who has since gone on to win again.

I’m Super Too is trained by Alan Swinbank, who has a decent enough record here at Hamilton with seven wins and eight places from 32 handicap races at the track. Another factor I’d like to mention is his record with horses on heavy ground, where his charges have recorded 21 wins from 88 at a strike rate of 24% generating 26pts at level stakes (29% profit). The trip from Alan’s yard in Melsonby, North Yorkshire to Hamilton is a 6 hour, 300-mile round trip and I’m Super Too is his only runner today.

With all this in mind, I’m happy enough to take some of the 11/2 BOG on offer from Paddy Power, but you should always…

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.40 Hamilton.